HOW TO CONTAIN INFLATION?

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
June 18 - 24, 2012

INFLATION (%) (BASE 2007-08)

PERIOD CPI CORE INFLATION SPI** WPI
GENERAL FOOD NON-F OOD NFNE* TRIMMED
YOY MOM YOY MOM YOY MOM YOY MOM YOY MOM YOY MOM YOY MOM
Apr 11 12.5 1.4 16.5 1.3 9.8 1.5 9.5 1.4 12.0 1.0 14.2 0.3 24.9 2.5
May 11 12.6 0.2 15.8 -0.3 10.5 0.6 9.7 0.5 12.1 0.5 13.7 -0.7 22.3 -1.0
Jun 11 13.3 1.0 15.8 0.7 11.6 1.2 9.8 0.5 12.4 0.7 13.0 -0.1 22.8 0.6
Jul 11 12.4 1.3 17.1 2.9 9.2 0.1 9.5 1.2 11.9 1.1 13.1 2.4 20.3 -0.4
Aug 11 11.6 1.4 13.2 1.4 10.4 1.4 10.0 0.8 12.5 0.8 11.6 0.8 18.7 0.6
Sep 11 10.5 1.0 9.9 1.6 10.9 0.6 10.6 0.7 11.7 0.6 7.6 1.3 17.0 0.2
Oct 11 11.0 1.4 11.7 1.6 10.4 1.3 10.4 1.4 11.7 1.0 6.5 0.8 15.4 0.4
Nov 11 10.2 0.3 10.0 0.1 10.3 0.4 10.4 0.6 11.5 0.5 3.8 0.7 12.0 -0.5
Dec 11 9.7 -0.7 9.5 -2.2 9.9 0.4 10.1 0.4 10.5 0.3 3.0 -2.0 8.3 -1.3
Jan 12 10.1 1.5 9.2 1.5 10.7 1.6 10.2 1.1 10.4 0.8 3.9 1.0 8.7 2.3
Feb 12 11.0 0.3 10.5 -0.7 11.5 1.0 10.6 0.7 10.7 0.5 5.2 -0.1 7.2 0.6
Mar 12 10.8 1.2 9.8 1.5 11.5 0.9 10.8 1.0 10.5 0.8 6.1 1.5 4.5 0.7
Apr 12 11.3 1.8 10.7 2.2 11.6 1.6 10.8 1.4 11.0 1.3 7.5 1.7 3.8 1.8
May 12 12.3 1.1 11.3 0.2 13.1 1.9 11.1 0.8 11.7 0.5 8.1 -0.1 7.1 2.1
*NFNE is non-food non-energy, ** SPI for quintile 1, YoY = year on year, MoM = month on month

US $ RATES  PER PAK RUPEE

YEARS LEADERS US $
1972 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 4.7
1977 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 9.9
1983 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 13.1
1987 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 17.7
1990 Benazir Bhutto Rs 24
1991 Nawaz Sharif Rs 25
1994 Benazir Bhutto Rs 30.6
1996 Benazir Bhutto Rs 40.3
1997-99 Nawaz Sharif Rs 53
1999-08 Pervaiz Musharraf Rs 62
2008 to date Yousuf Raza Gilani Rs 96.60

INFLATION RATES (%)

COUNTRY LATEST 2011
Bangladesh 10.43 10.63
Turkey 10.43 10.45
Japan 0.5 -0.2
India 9.47 7.5
United States 2.7 3
Hong Kong 4.9 5.7
UAE 0.73 0.2
China 3.6 4.1
United Kingdom 3.5 4.2

INTEREST RATE

DATE (%)
2-Aug-10 13.00
30-Sep-10 13.5
30-Nov-10 14.00
1-Aug-11 13.5
9-Oct-11 to date 12.00

POOREST COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD (2012)

COUNTRY GDP PER CAPITA
1. Burundi $300
2. Congo $300
3. Liberia $500
4. Zimbabwe $500
5. Eritrea $600

INDICES IN PAKISTAN (Base 2007-08)

INDEX AVERAGES JULY-MAY % CHANGES MAY OVER MAY % CHANGES
2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10
CPI 10.97 13.69 9.95 12.29 12.65 12.32
SPI 6.84 16.91 12.79 8.08 13.74 15.43
WPI 10.83 21.10 13.43 7.06 22.28 19.55

REAL GDP GROWTH RATE (%)

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
3.7 1.7 3.1 3.00 3.7

HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE WORLD (2012)

COUNTRY (%)
1. Zimbabwe 95.00
2. Nauru 90.00
3. Liberia 85.00
4. Burkina Faso 77.00
5. Turkmenistan 60.00

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX BY GROUP OF COMMODITIES AND SERVICES
(BASE 2007-08)

GROUP

GROUP WEIGHT
(%)
INDICES % CHANGE MAY 2012 OVER IMPACT (ADJUSTED) (IN % POINTS) MAY 2012 OVER
MAY 2012 APR 2012 MAY 2011 APR 2012 MAY 2011 APR 2012 MAY 2011
General 100.00 169.93 168.00 151.33 1.15 12.29 1.15 12.29
1. Food & Non-alcoholic Bev. 34.83 188.29 188.00 169.26 0.15 11.24 0.05 3.93
Non-perishable Food Items 29.84 187.75 186.60 170.43 0.61 10.16 0.16 3.03
Perishable Food Items 4.99 191.52 196.36 162.28 -2.46 18.02 -0.11 0.90
2. Alcoholic Bev. & Tobacco 1.41 169.22 168.74 151.57 0.28 11.64 0.00 0.16
3. Clothing & Footwear 7.57 163.22 161.68 140.69 0.95 16.01 0.06 1.21
4. Housing, Water, Electricity,Gas & Fuels 29.41 153.27 149.07 138.27 2.82 10.85 0.73 3.19
5. Furnishing & Household Equipment Maintenance 4.21 171.52 168.78 141.13 1.62 21.53 0.06 0.91
6. Health 2.19 144.07 141.74 128.55 1.64 12.07 0.03 0.26
7. Transport 7.20 185.93 185.94 158.71 -0.01 17.15 0.00 1.23
8. Communication 3.22 122.38 122.36 123.74 0.02 -1.10 0.00 -0.04
9. Recreation & Culture 2.03 163.95 146.51 137.72 11.90 19.05 0.21 0.39
10. Education 3.94 151.31 151.36 134.85 -0.03 12.21 0.00 0.48
11. Restaurants & Hotels 1.23 193.79 192.76 174.47 0.53 11.07 0.01 0.14
12. Miscellaneous 2.76 188.15 188.70 163.19 -0.29 15.30 -0.01 0.42

PER MONTH WAGES RATES IN PAKISTAN (Rs)

SALARIES & BENEFITS (EXECUTIVES)
Managing Director 150000 400000
General Manager 100000 300000
Senior Manager 85000 130000
Manager 70000 100000
Deputy Manager 55000 75000
System Analyst 45000 60000
Programmer 35000 55000
SALARIES & BENEFITS (NON EXECUTIVES)
Foreman 20000 25000
Supervisor 15000 20000
Electronic Data Processing Supervisor 20000 25000
Boiler man 15000 18000
Electrician 15000 18000
Clerk/Typist 12000 15000
Data Entry Operator 12000 15000
Security Guard 8000 12000
Driver 8000 10000
Un-skilled worker 6000 8000
Average total remuneration in manufacturing sector :( Increase 15% per annum).

WORLD INTEREST RATES

COUNTRY CURRENT RATE LAST CHANGE
Australia 3.50% June 06 2012
Canada 1.00% Sep 08 2010
China 6.56% Jul 06 2011
Egypt 9.25% Nov 24 2011
Hong Kong SAR 0.50% Dec 17 2008
India 8.50% Oct 25 2011
Indonesia 5.75% Feb 09 2012
Japan 0.10% Dec 19 2008
Sweden 1.50% Feb 16 2012
Turkey 5.75% Aug 05 2011
United Kingdom 0.50% Mar 05 2009
United States 0.25% Dec 16 2008

DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS OF PAKISTAN

INDICATORS 2011-12 (1ST JULY)
Total Population (million) 180.71
Urban Population (million) 67.55
Rural Population (million) 113.16
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 3.4
Crude Birth Rate (per thousand) 27.2
Crude Death Rate (per thousand) 7.2
Population Growth Rate (%) 2.03
LIFE EXPECTANCY (YEARS)
- Female 66.1
- Males 64.3