ALTERNATIVE ENERGY RESOURCES

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
June 11 - 17, 2012

COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

FISCAL YEAR

OIL/PETROLEUM (TONNES)

HOUSEHOLDS INDUSTRY AGRICULTURE TRANSPORT POWER OTHER GOVT.
2010-11 67,293 919,240 35,800 6,599,058 5,913,437 267,446
2011-12 61,884 1,141,397 21,215 6,832,937 5,608,785 213,127

CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (000 tones) (Change in %)

YEAR HH. CHG. IND. CHG. AGRI CHG. TRAN. CHG. POW. CHG. O.G CHG TOTAL
2005-06 129 -33.2 1,682 9.1 82 -42.3 8,157 -9.6 4,219 22.2 359 13.2 14,627
2006-07 106 -17.8 1,596 -5.1 97 18.3 7,982 -2.1 6,741 59.8 - -9.5 16,847
2007-08 121 14.1 1,071 -32.9 109 12.7 9,384 17.6 7,084 5.1 311 -4.5 18,080
2008-09 97 -19.5 9,69 -9.5 70 -36.2 8,837 -5.8 7,750 6.9 367 18.2 17,911
2009-10 90 -7.5 985 1.6 58 -16.9 8,861 0.3 8,814 16.4 323 -12.0 19,131
2010-11 67.3 - 919.2 - 35.8 - 6,599.1 - 5,913.4 - 267.4 - 13,802
2011-12* 61.9 -8.0 1,141 24.2 21.2 -40.8 6,832.9 3.5 5,608.8 -5.2 213.1 -20.3 13,879
HH: HOUSEHOLD, CHG: CHANGE, AGRI: AGRICULTURE, TRAN: TRANSPORT, IND: INDUSTRY, O.G.: OTHER GOVT., POW: POWER
*2011-12 march is missing, 2010-11 & 2011-12 (July-march)

CURRENT STATUS OF ON-GRID WIND POWER GENERATION PROJECTS

COMPANY LOCATION COMPANY LOCATION
New Park Energy Pvt Ltd Gharo Lucky Energy (Pvt) Ltd Jhampir
Tenaga Generasi Ltd. Kuttikun Metro Power Co. (Pvt) Jhampir
Green Power (Pvt) Ltd, Kuttikun Gul Ahmed Energy Ltd, Jhampir
Dawood Power Ltd. Bhambore Zorlu Enerji, Jhampir
Master Wind Energy Ltd, Jhampir Wind Eagle Ltd. (Tech. Plc Ltd), Jhampir
Zephyr Power Ltd Bhambore Wind Eagle Ltd. (Technology Plc Ltd), Jhampir
Beacon Energy Ltd. Kuttikun Sapphire Wind Power Company (Pvt) Ltd, Jhampir
HOM Energy (Private) Ltd, Jhampir CWE Jhampir
Sachal Energy Development Pvt Ltd, Jhampir Abbas Steel Group Bhambore
Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. Jhampir Abbas Steel Group Bhambore
Arabian Sea Wind Energy Pvt. Ltd. Lakha

SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF ELECTRICITY IN PAKISTAN (MW)

  2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Existing Generation 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903
Proposal / Committed Generation 10,556 13,307 13,520 14,607 16,134 18,448
Total Existing/Committed Generation 26,459 29,210 29,423 30,510 32,037 34,351
Expected Available Generation 21,167 23,368 23,538 24,408 25,630 27,481
Demand (Summer Peak) 22,460 24,126 25,919 28,029 30,223 35,504
Surplus/Deficit Generation -1,293 -758 -2,381 -3,621 -4,593 -8,023

MAJOR HYDRO ELECTRICITY SITES

Diamir Basha Dam 4500 MW
Bunji 5400 MW
Other small and medium size projects 22,000 MW
Total Potential: 31,000 MW
Total estimated investment: 60 billion US$

CONSUMPTION OF COAL (Percentage Share)

YEAR HOUSEHOLD POWER BRICK KILNS CEMENT
2009-10 0.0 1.5 36.9 61.5
2010-11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2011-12 0.0 25.6 -31.2 -4.0

ANNUAL EXPECTED CAPACITY (IPP’s)

YEAR ( MW)
2011-12 672
2013 501
2014 612
2015 2,292
2016 888
2017 2,488

CONSUMPTION OF COAL (Percentage Share)

YEAR IMPORTS PRODUCTION TOTAL
2006-07 4,251 3,643 7,894
2007-08 5,987 4,124 10,111
2008-09 4,652 3,738 8,390
2009-10 4,652 3,738 8,390
JUL-MARCH
2009-10(e) 3,600 1,704 5,304
2010-11(e) 3,500 2,350 5,850

ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCES (%)

FY OIL GAS LPG ELECTRICITY COAL
2005-06 32.0 39.3 1.8 16.2 10.6
2008-09 29.0 43.7 1.5 15.3 10.4
2010-11 29.0 43.2 1.3 16.2 10.4

ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

FY PETROLEUM PRODUCTS GAS ELECTRICITY COAL
TOONS (000) CHG
%
(MMCFT) CHG
%
(GWH) CHG
%
M.T* (000) CHG
%
2008-09 17,911 -0.9 1,269,433 -0.5 70,371 -4.1 8,390 -17.0
2009-10 19,132 6.8 1,277,821 0.66 74,348 5.7 8,139 -3.0
2010-11 18,887 -1.3 1,240,671 -2.91 77,099 3.7 7,717 -5.2
Avg. 10 years. . 1.1 . 5.1 . 4.8 . 7.7
JULY-MARCH
2010-11(e) 13,802 939,950 - 56,194 - 5,850 -
2011-12** 13,879 0.6 957,275 1.8 54,595 -2.8 4,730(e) -19.1
**: Consumption of electricity for AJK and KESC for the months Jan to Mar 2012 is not available

WORLD ENERGY MIX-2050

SECTOR (%)
Solar 6
Wind 12
Renewable 1
Nuclear 8
Hydro 12
Oil 9
Gas 9
Coal 43

CONSUMPTION OF GAS DURING FY 2011-12

SECTOR (BILLION CFT)
Household 205.4
Commercial 29.4
Cement 1.4
Fertilizer 159.0
Power 263.5
Industrial 208.5
Transport 90.2
Total 957.3

GLOBAL OIL DEMAND
(million barrels per day)

. 2011 2012
Africa 3.3 3.5
Americas 29.9 30.0
Asia/Pacific 28.0 28.8
Europe 15.0 14.8
FSU 4.7 4.7
Middle East 8.0 8.3
World 89.0 90.0
Annual Chg (%) 0.8 1.2