TRADE & INDUSTRY

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
June 4 - 10, 2012

REAL GDP (SECTOR-WISE) (RS IN MILLION)

SECTOR 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11R 2011-12 (p)
A)Commodity Producing Sector 2,234,671 2,348,925 2,504,569 2,535,968 2,580,671 2,672,521 2,711,746 2,800,657
I. Agriculture 1,027,403 1,092,098 1,137,037 1,148,851 1,195,002 1,202,411 1,230,978 1,269,491
Crops 511,051 496,462 523,860 512,075 539,336 519,592 522,095 532,937
Major Crops 385,058 370,005 398,617 373,188 402,135 392,983 392,096 404,577
Minor Crops 125,993 126,457 125,243 138,887 137,201 126,609 129,999 128,360
Livestock 484,876 561,500 577,400 601,408 620,253 646,783 672,486 699,629
Fishing 13,691 16,540 19,080 20,834 21,319 21,632 22,051 22,443
Forestry 17,785 17,596 16,697 14,534 14,094 14,404 14,346 14,482
II. Industry 1,207,268 1,256,827 1,367,532 1,387,117 1,385,669 1,470,110 1,480,768 1,531,166
Manufacturing 840,243 912,953 988,301 1,036,101 998,846 1,053,362 1,085,643 1,124,266
Large-scale 590,759 639,585 695,489 723,626 665,285 697,148 705,139 717,690
Small-scale 249,484 273,368 292,812 312,475 333,561 356,214 380,504 406,576
Mining and Quarrying 122,621 128,288 132,254 138,047 137,348 140,415 138,616 144,685
Construction 98,190 108,195 134,536 127,076 112,884 131,324 122,010 129,893
Electricity & Gas Distribution 146,214 107,391 112,441 85,893 136,591 145,009 134,499 132,322
B) Services Sector 2,358,559 2,511,551 2,687,140 2,847,044 2,895,045 2,971,081 3,103,283 3,227,914
Wholesale & Retail Trade 858,695 838,426 887,294 934,231 921,375 962,739 996,722 1,032,389
Transport Storage & Communication 477,171 496,073 519,486 539,297 558,703 569,285 574,212 581,396
Finance and Insurance 185,501 265,056 304,514 338,386 312,818 274,774 270,912 288,595
Ownership of Dwellings 131,214 135,820 140,587 145,521 150,629 155,916 158,707 164,278
Public Administration & Defence 268,826 295,959 316,915 320,565 332,108 340,475 388,734 398,888
Community, Social & Personal Services 437,152 480,217 518,344 569,044 619,412 667,892 713,996 762,368
GDP at Factor Cost (A+B) 4,593,230 4,860,476 5,191,709 5,383,012 5,475,716 5,643,602 5,815,029 6,028,571

MID-YEAR INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE REVIEW (% YoY growth)

. % SHARE Fy11 Fy12
GDP IND. H1 FY H1 FY (TARGET)
Industry 24.8 100 - -0.1 - 3.1
LSM 13.0 52.3 -2.0 -0.02 0.8 2.0
Mining 2.7 10.9 -1.5 -1.6 2.3 1.0
Construction 2.4 9.8 - 0.8 - 2.5
Electricity, gas, & water distribution 2.0 8.1 - -21.1 - 1.0
of which
Electricity - - -12.5 -9.9 22.5 -

INTEREST RATES

DATE (%)
2-Aug-10 13
30-Sep-10 13.5
30-Nov-10 14
1-Aug-11 13.5
9-Oct-11 to date 12

ECONOMIC CATEGORY-WISE LSM PRODUCTION (% YoY growth)

CATEGORY Wt Q1 Q2
FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12
Consumer goods 31.9 2.8 6.7 2.5 5.0
Durables 5.2 14.1 4.8 5.8 4.6
Non-durables 26.7 0.8 7.1 1.9 5.1
Capital goods 2.4 4.2 -33.3 -5.7 -17.6
Intermediate goods 36.1 -9.5 1.3 -2.0 -5.8
Overall LSM 70.3 -3.9 2.8 -0.1 -1.0

BALANCE OF TRADE (US $ MILLION)

PERIOD EXPORTS IMPORTS BALANCE OF TRADE
2006-07 17,278 26,989 -9,711
2007-08 20,427 35,397 -14,970
2008-09 19,121 31,747 -12,627
2009-10 19,673 31,209 -11,536
2010-11 25,355 35,872 -10,517

EXPORT REFINANCE (%)

W.E.F RATE
Apr-05 5.0
May-05 6.5
Jun-05 6.5
Jul-05 7.5
Jul-06 6.5
Nov-09 7.0
Jan-10 7.5
Apr-10 8.0
Jul-10 8.5
Oct-10 9.0
01-Jan-2011 till date 10.0

SECTOR WISE FDI INFLOWS ($ Million)

SECTOR 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 (JUL-APRIL)
Oil & Gas 740.6 512.2 465.5
Financial Business 163 246.9 54.2
Textiles 27.8 25 27.3
Trade 117 53 20.3
Construction 101.6 60.8 59.1
Power -120.6 155.8 -22.1
Chemical 112.1 30.5 78.2
Transport 132 104.6 15.8
Communication 291 -34.1 -292.8
Others 586.3 418.9 261.2

SOME SALIENT FEATURES OF THE BUDGET 2011-12

The total outlay of budget 2011-12 was Rs 2,767 billion. The size was 14.2% higher than the size of budget estimated in 2010-11. The resource availability during 2011-12 had been estimated at Rs 2,463 billion against Rs 2,256 billion in the budget estimated of 2010-11.
Net revenue receipts for 2011-12 had been estimated at Rs 1,529 billion indicating an increase of 11% over the budget estimated in 2010-11. The external receipts in 2011-12 were estimated at Rs 414 billion. This showed an increase of 7.1% over the budget estimated for 2010-11.
The capital receipts (net) for 2011-12 had been estimated at Rs 396 billion against the budget estimated of Rs 325 billion in 2010-11. An amount of Rs 10 billion had been allocated to earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) in the PSDP 2011-12.

SALIENT FEATURES OF BUDGET 2012-13

The total outlay of budget 2012-13 is Rs 3,203 billion. This size is 15.8 per cent higher than the size of budget estimates 2011-12. The resource availability during 2012-13 has been estimated at Rs 2,719 billion against Rs 2,463 billion in the budget estimates of 2011-12.
The revenue receipts (net) for 2012-13 have been estimated at Rs 1,775 billion indicating an increase of 16.1 per cent over the budget estimates of 2011-12. The provincial share in federal revenue receipts is estimated at Rs 1,459 billion during 2012-13 which is 21.2 per cent higher than the budget estimates for 2011-12.
The net capital receipts for 2012-13 have been estimated at Rs 478 billion against the budget estimates of Rs 396 billion in 2011-12 i.e. an increase of 20.8 per cent. The external receipts in 2012-13 are estimated at Rs 387 billion. This shows a decrease of 6.5 per cent over the budget estimates for 2011-12.
The overall expenditure during 2012-13 has been estimated at Rs 3,203 billion of which the current expenditure is Rs2,612 billion and development expenditure is Rs 591 billion. Current expenditure has been estimated to be lower than the revised estimates for 2011-12 by around 1 per cent, while development expenditure will increase by 23.7 per cent in 2012-13 over the revised estimates of 2011-12. The share of current expenditure in total budgetary outlay for 2012-13 is 81.6 per cent as compared to 84.6 per cent in revised estimates for 2011-12.
The expenditure on General Public Services is estimated at Rs 1,877 billion which is 71.9 per cent of the current expenditure.