PAGE ANNUAL 2012

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
May 21 - 27, 2012

HISTORICAL INFLATION REPORT

PER. LAK KND GAK ZAB GZH BB NS Bb NS PM YRG
Years 1947-51 51-53 58-69 72-77 77-88 88-90 90-93 93-96 97-99 99-2008 2008 till date
Flour 20 paisa 25 paisa 50 paisa Rs 1 Rs 2.50 Rs 3.25 Rs 4 Rs 6.60 Rs 8 Rs 17 Rs 32.00
Sugar 60 paisa 75 paisa Rs 1.75 Rs 6 Rs 9 Rs10 Rs 13 Rs 21 Rs 21 Rs 30 Rs 52.00
Ghee (kg) Rs 2.50 Rs 3 Rs 5 Rs 9 Rs 15 Rs 20 Rs 32 Rs 48 Rs 48 Rs 135 Rs 198.00
Dal 25 paisa 35 paisa Rs 1.50 Rs 2.50 Rs 9 Rs 10 Rs 18 Rs 18 Rs 20 Rs 42 Rs 76.00
Meat Rs 1.25 Rs 1.75 Rs 12 Rs 16 Rs 40 Rs 50 Rs 80 Rs 110 Rs 110 Rs 285 Rs 360.00
Petrol 15 paisa 0.35 paisa Rs 2.75 Rs 3.45 Rs 7.75 Rs 12 Rs 14 Rs 18.55 Rs 27 Rs 62 Rs 103.36
PER: Person, LAK: LIAQAT ALI KHAN, KND: KHUAJA NAZIM UDDIN, GAK: GEN AYUB KHAN, ZAB: Z.A BHUTTO, GZH: GEN ZIA UL HAQ, BB: BENAZIR BHUTTO, NS: NAWAZ SHARIF, PM: PERVAIZ MUSHARRAF, YRG: YOUSUF RAZA GILANI,

GLOBAL OIL DEMAND (2010-2012)
(million barrels per day)

. 2011 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012
Africa 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Americas 29.9 29.8 29.7 30.3 30.0 30.0
Asia/Pacific 28.0 29.2 28.3 28.1 29.5 28.8
Europe 15.0 14.5 14.5 15.2 15.0 14.8
FSU 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.7
Middle East 8.0 7.9 8.3 8.7 8.1 8.3
World 89.0 89.5 89.0 90.7 91.1 90.0
Annual Chg (%) 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.2

BALANCE OF TRADE (US $ MILLION)

PERIOD EXPORTS IMPORTS BALANCE OF TRADE
2006-07 17,278 26,989 -9,711
2007-08 20,427 35,397 -14,970
2008-09 19,121 31,747 -12,627
2009-10 19,673 31,209 -11,536
2010-11 25,355 35,872 -10,517

FBR TAX COLLECTION IN PAKISTAN (Rs. Million)

MONTHS TOTAL DIRECT TOTAL INDIRECT TAXES TAX COLLECTION
April-11 49,635 80,051 129,686
May-11 46,995 112,628 159,623
June-11 124,204 124,352 248,556
July-11 28,966 83,309 112,275
Aug-11 32,069 88,437 120,506
Sep-11 63,507 84,516 148,023
Oct-11 39,659 86,749 126,408
Nov-11 45,421 86,428 131,849
Dec-11 102,945 98,731 201,676
Jan-12 41,580 94,423 136,003

PERIOD AVERAGE AND YOY % CHANGES OF INDICES (Base 2007-08)

INDEX AVERAGES JULY-APRIL % CHANGES APRIL OVER APRIL % CHANGES
2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10
CPI 10.84 13.81 9.70 11.27 12.54 12.10
SPI 6.72 17.24 12.56 7.53 14.21 17.36
WPI 11.24 20.96 12.81 3.80 24.88 19.74

HEALTHCARE FACILITIES IN PAKISTAN

HEALTH MANPOWER 2010-11 HEALTH MANPOWER 2010-11
Registered doctors 144,901 Population per doctor 1,222
Registered dentists 10,508 Population per dentist 16,854
Registered nurses 73,244 Population per bed 1,701

COTTON CROP PRODUCTION
(million bales of 170 kg)

PROVINCE FY11 FY10 CHANGE
Sindh 2.3 3.5 -1.2
Punjab 10.1 7.9 2.3
Total 12.6 11.4 1.2

REAL GDP GROWTH RATE (%)

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
6.8 3.7 1.7 3.8 2.4

LABOUR FORCE

YEAR 2009-10 (MILLION NO.)
Labour force 54.92
Employed 51.87
unemployed 3.05

SBP PROJECTIONS OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS (FY12)

INDICATORS ANNUAL PLAN TARGETS SBP PROJECTIONS
PERCENT GROWTH
GDP 4. 2 3.0- 4.0
CPI inflation 12.0 11.0-12.0
Monetary assets 12.0-13.0 -
BILLION US$
Workers' remittances 12 .0 12.0- 13.0
Exports (fob-BoP) 25.8 24.1-24.6
Imports (fob-BoP) 38.0 40.3-41.0
PERCENT OF GDP
Fiscal deficit 4.7 5.5-6 .5
Current account deficit 0.6 1.5-2.5

INTEREST RATE SPREAD OF PAKISTAN (%)

YEARS AVERAGE YIELD ON EARNING ASSETS AVERAGE COST OF INTEREST LIABILITIES SPREAD
(a) (b) (a-b)
CY98 14.0 8.5 5.4
CY99 12.7 7.7 5.0
CY00 11.3 6.6 4.7
CY01 11.2 6.1 5.1
CY02 8.7 4.3 4.5
CY03 5.7 2.0 3.8
CY04 5.0 1.5 3.5
CY05 7.5 2.6 5.0
CY06 9.1 3.9 5.2

ECONOMIC CATEGORY-WISE LSM PRODUCTION
(% YoY growth)

CATEGORY Wt Q1 Q2
FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12
Consumer goods 31.9 2.8 6.7 2.5 5.0
Durables 5.2 14.1 4.8 5.8 4.6
Non-durables 26.7 0.8 7.1 1.9 5.1
Capital goods 2.4 4.2 -33.3 -5.7 -17.6
Intermediate goods 36.1 -9.5 1.3 -2.0 -5.8
Overall LSM 70.3 -3.9 2.8 -0.1 -1.0

DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS OF PAKISTAN

INDICATORS 2010-11 (1ST JULY)
Total Population (million) 177.10
Urban Population (million) 65.3
Rural Population (million) 111.8
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 3.5
Crude Birth Rate (per thousand) 27.50
Crude Death Rate (per thousand) 7.30
Population Growth Rate (%) 2.05
LIFE EXPECTANCY (YEARS)
- Female 67.9
- Males 64.18

PRODUCTION & IMPORT OF FINISHED STEEL
(million MT/annum)

. PSM PVT. SECTOR IMPORTS TOTAL
Actual 0.5 2.2 1.9 4.6
Full capacity 1.1 4.5 (Average of FY09-FY11) 0.5-1 (Estimated) 6-7

MID-YEAR INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE REVIEW
(% YoY growth)

. % SHARE FY11 FY12
GDP IND. H1 FY H1 FY (TARGET)
INDUSTRY 24.8 100 - -0.1 - 3.1
LSM 13.0 52.3 -2.0 -0.02 0.8 2.0
Mining 2.7 10.9 -1.5 -1.6 2.3 1.0
Construction 2.4 9.8 - 0.8 - 2.5
Electricity, gas, & water distribution 2.0 8.1 - -21.1 - 1.0
of which
Electricity - - -12.5 -9.9 22.5 -

BANKS IN PAKISTAN (2012)

CATEGORY NUMBERS
Public sector banks 5
Specialized banks 4
Private banks 17
Islamic banks 5
Foreign banks 7
Micro finance banks / institutions 8
Development finance institutions 8

PIB AUCTIONS
(Rs. Billion)

MONTHS AUG-11 SEP-11 OCT-11 NOV-11* DEC-11
Targets 30.0 20.0 15.0 15.0 15.0
Acceptance 40.5 25.9 18.9 11.2 6.3
*During November 2011 government also raised Rs 195.3 bn for circular debt settlement through PIBs.

INTEREST RATES

DATE (%)
2-Aug-10 13.00
30-Sep-10 13.5
30-Nov-10 14.00
1-Aug-11 13.5
9-Oct-11 to date 12.00

US $ AVERAGE RATES  PER PAK RUPEE

LEADERS ZAB GZH BB NS BB NS PM YRG
YEARS 1972 1983 1990 1991 1994 1997-99 1999-08 2008 TO DATE
US $ Rs 4.7 Rs 13.1 Rs 24 Rs 25 Rs 30.6 Rs 53 Rs 62 Rs 92.10
ZAB: Z.A. BHUTTO, GZH: GEN ZIAULHAQ, BB: BENAZIR BHUTTO, NS: NAWAZ SHARIF, PM: PERVAIZ MUSHARRAF, YRG: YOUSUF RAZA GILANI,

PROVINCIAL FINANCES FOR H1-FY12
(billion Rupees)

FINANCE PUNJAB SINDH KP BALOCHISTAN CONSOLIDATED
Total revenue 248.6 158.8 97.6 64.1 569.0
Share in federal revenues 214.6 124.2 74.6 52.7 466.0
Taxes 17.2 18.1 1.6 0.5 37.3
Non-tax revenues 13.6 2.9 6.7 0.6 23.8
Federal loans & transfers 3.2 13.6 14.7 10.4 41.9
Total expenditure 256.8 154.6 87.4 49.5 548.4
Current 207.7 144.0 66.0 41.3 458.9
Development 49.1 10.6 21.5 8.3 89.4
Overall balance -8.2 4.1 10.1 14.5 20.6
As % of GDP -0.04 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.10

KIBOR RATE AS ON 15TH MAY 2012

TENOR BID OFFER
1 – Week 11.52 12.02
2 – Week 11.53 12.03
1 – Month 11.54 12.04
3 – Month 11.70 11.95
6 – Month 11.77 12.02
9 – Month 11.82 12.32
1 – Year 11.87 12.37
2 – Year 11.94 12.44
3- Year 12.03 12.53

CAPITAL GOODS PRODUCTION & IMPORTS IN H1 (US $)

INDUSTRY SHARE IN INDEX PRODUCTION IMPORTS
FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12
Electrical apparatus 41.8 0.2 -6.2 25.1 -11.8
Commercial vehicles 29.9 -0.7 -10.0 -18.7 101.6
Agricultural machinery 21.8 -3.5 -51.8 -33.4 42.6
Power gen. machinery 3.7 -18.7 -65.8 -32.5 12.4
Heavy machinery 2.8 24.4 26.6 - -
Total 100.0 -0.9 -24.6 1.7 3.8

BANKS’ EXPOSURE IN DIFFERENT GROUPS OF PSES
(Outstanding Stocks) (Rs. billion)

GROUPS DEC-10 JUN-11 DEC-11
Transport 33.2 41.4 46.2
Electricity generation 291.4 292.1 25.9
Oil & gas 44.8 41.5 39.5
Engineering sector 18.9 23.7 23.5
Services sector 0.1 0.4 0.4
Total exposure in selected sector 388.4 399.1 135.5

CONSTRUCTION INDICATORS IN H1
(%YoY growth)

INDICATORS FY11 FY12
Construction machinery import -22.5 105.0
Cement sales -8.3 12.3
Steel sale (PSM pig iron)-Jul-Nov -38.2 -54.0
Building materials production -8.3 -6.6
FDI in construction -53.7 41.6
Credit to construction (Growth over June) 4.5 -4.4
Residential 8.1 -4.6
Infrastructure 10.2 -1.2
Housing finance -6.2 -7.3
Building material prices 7.2 13.2

EXTERNAL ACCOUNTS
(billion US Dollar) (p)

ACCOUNTS H1-FY11

FY12

H1 Q1 Q2
(A) C/A balance 0.0 -2.3 -1.3 -1.0
i) Trade balance -5.8 -7.8 -4.2 -3.6
ii) Services account balance -0.3 -1.3 -0.7 -0.6
iii) Income account balance -1.5 -1.6 -0.6 -1.0
iv) Current transfers 7.6 8.4 4.2 4.2
(B) Financial/Capital balance 1.0 0.4 0.6 -0.2
i) FDI 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.3
ii) FPI 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
iii) Others 0.0 0.0 0.4 -0.4
(C) Errors & omissions 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
Overall balance (A+B+C) 1.0 -1.8 -0.8 -1.0

CONSUMPTION OF GAS
(Billion cft) (July-march)

YEAR HH COM CEM FER POW IND
2009-10 184.5 28.6 1.7 162.5 264.8 246.1
2010-11(p) 185.9 27.2 0.6 166.9 264.3 223.6
HH: HOUSEHOLD, COM: COMMERCIAL, CEM: CEMENT, FER: FERTILIZER, POW: POWER, IND: INDUSTRIAL,

LOANS TAKEN BY PRIVATE SECTOR
(Jul-Dec) (Rs. billion)

YEAR LOAN EXPANSION LOAN RETIREMENT
WC FI TF WC FI TF
FY09 126.5 122.0 15.9 -55.0 -7.9 -22.4
FY10 91.5 70.5 25.4 -41.6 -23.4 -10.5
FY11 164.3 39.7 59.0 -42.1 -29.0 -8.2
FY12 147.8 22.2 18.6 -65.5 -35.2 -20.9
WC: Working Capital, FI: Fixed Investment, TF: Trade Financing

CHANGE IN EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK
(Jul-Dec) (million US $)

DEBT FY11 FY12
Public debt 2,590.0 -915.0
Government debt 1,893.0 -355.0
From IMF 659.0 -496.0
Foreign exchange liabilities 38.0 -64.0
PSEs external debt -136.0 51.6
Private sector external debt 98.0 152.6
Total external debt 2,552.0 -710.8

ENERGY AVAILABILITY DURING H1

ITEMS FY11 FY12 YOY GROWTH
FY11 FY12
Natural gas production 3,602 4,412 -12.5 22.5
Electricity generation 16,043 16,560 1.6 3.2
Coal mining 887 724 -10.9 -18.3
Crude oil processed 4,709 4,641 -6.8 -1.4
POL product imports 5,989 6,853 0.9 14.4
Total 31,229 33,191 -2.1 6.3
Note: Production in 000 tons of oil equivalent

PUBLIC SECTOR SPENDING ON EDUCATION

COUNTRY PUBLIC SECTOR SPENDING (AS % GDP) LITERACY RATE IN (%)
Bangladesh 2.6 55.0
China - 93.7
India 3.3 -
Iran 5.2 -
Malaysia 4.7 92.1
Pakistan 2.1 57.0
Sri Lanka - 90.6

ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

FY PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
(TONS (000))
GAS (MMCFT) ELECTRICITY (GWH) COAL M.T(000)
2009-10 13,937 959,475 54,653 5,304
2010-11 13,802 939,960 56,194 5,850

DRONE ATTACK IN PAKISTAN

YEAR INCIDENTS KILLED INJURED
2009 46 536 75
2010 90 831 85+
2011 59 548 52
2012 12 87 6
Total 228 2179 250+

GOVERNMENT DOMESTIC DEBT
(Rs. Billion)

DEBT CHANGE IN FY12
Q1 Q2
Domestic debt 207.6 641.7
Permanent debt 56.2 281.9
Floating debt 106.5 325.9
Unfunded debt 44.8 33.9
FC instruments 0.0 0.0

SOURCES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE INFLOWS DURING H1 (million US $)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE FY12
SBP purchases 850.0
Swaps 2,194.0
Donor agencies & others 1,555.5
IMF 2.6
IBRD 87.1
IDA 161.2
ADB 206.9
UN troops 138.9
US/UK/EU COMM/SAMA Grants 66.9
Logistic support 0.0
Total 4,599.5

LOANS TO PRIVATE SECTOR BUSINESSES
(Rs. billion) (Jul-Dec)

SECTOR FY11 FY12
Business Sector Advance 190.2 86.1
Working Capital 131.3 99.5
Seasonal Financing 73.0 1.0
Rice 21.9 12.1
Sugar -15.9 -40.2
Cotton 67.0 27.3
Fixed Investment 8.1 -8.5
Trade Financing 50.8 -5.1
Consumer Financing -17.4 -7.9