PRE BUDGET 2012-13

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Apr 2 - 8, 2012

SALIENT FEATURES OF THE BUDGET 2011-12

The total outlay of budget 2011-12 is Rs 2,767 billion. This size is 14.2% higher than the size of budget estimates 2010-11. The resource availability during 2011-12 has been estimated at Rs 2,463 billion against Rs 2,256 billion in the budget estimates of 2010-11.
Net revenue receipts for 2011-12 have been estimated at Rs 1,529 billion indicating an increase of 11% over the budget estimates of 2010-11. The provincial share in federal revenue receipts is estimated at Rs 1,203 billion during 2011-12 which is 16.4% higher than the budget estimates for 2010-11.
The capital receipts (net) for 2011-12 have been estimated at Rs 396 billion against the budget estimates of Rs 325 billion in 2010-11 i.e. an increase of 11%. The external receipts in 2011-12 are estimated at Rs 414 billion. This shows an increase of 7.1% over the budget estimates for 2010-11.
The overall expenditure during 2011-12 has been estimated at Rs 2,767 billion of which the current expenditure is Rs 2,315 billion and development expenditure at Rs 452 billion. Current expenditure shows an increase of less than 1% over the revised estimates of 2010-11, while development expenditure will increase by 64.4% in 2011-12 over the revised estimates of 2010-11. The share of current expenditure in total budgetary outlay for 2011-12 is 83.7% as compared to 89.7% in revised estimates for 2010-11.
The expenditure on General Public Services (inclusive of debt servicing transfer payments and superannuation allowance) is estimated at Rs 1,660 billion which is 71.1% of the current expenditure. The size of Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) for 2011-12 is Rs 730 billion. While for Other Development Expenditure an amount of Rs 97 billion has been allocated. The PSDP shows an increase of 58% over the revised estimates 2010-11.
The provinces have been allocated an amount of Rs 430 billion for budget estimates 2011-12 in their PSDP as against Rs 373 billion in 2010-11. An amount of Rs 10 billion has been allocated to arthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) in the PSDP 2011-12.

INTEREST RATES IN PAKISTAN

DATE RATES (%)
2-Aug-10 13.00
30-Sep-10 13.5
30-Nov-10 14.00
1-Aug-11 13.5
9-Oct-11 to date 12.00

BALANCE OF TRADE (US $ Million)

PERIOD EXPORTS IMPORTS BALANCE OF TRADE
VALUE GROWTH RATE VALUE GROWTH RATE
2005-06 16,553 14.3 24,994 31.6 -8,441
2006-07 17,278 4.4 26,989 8.0 -9,711
2007-08 20,427 18.2 35,397 31.2 -14,970
2008-09 19,121 -6.4 31,747 -10.3 -12,627
2009-10 19,673 2.9 31,209 -1.7 -11,536
2010-11 25,355 28.9 35,872 14.9 -10,517

DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS OF PAKISTAN

INDICATORS 2010-11 (1ST JULY)
Total Population (million) 177.10
Urban Population (million) 65.3
Rural Population (million) 111.8
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 3.5
Crude Birth Rate (per thousand) 27.50
Crude Death Rate (per thousand) 7.30
Population Growth Rate (%) 2.05
Life Expectancy (years)
- Female 67.9
- Males 64.18

FBR TAX COLLECTION IN PAKISTAN (Rs. Million)

MONTHS TOTAL DIRECT TOTAL INDIRECT TAXES TAX COLLECTION
April-11 49,635 80,051 129,686
May-11 46,995 112,628 159,623
June-11 124,204 124,352 248,556
July-11 28,966 83,309 112,275
Aug-11 32,069 88,437 120,506
Sep-11 63,507 84,516 148,023
Oct-11 39,659 86,749 126,408
Nov-11 45,421 86,428 131,849
Dec-11 102,945 98,731 201,676

PAKISTAN: REAL GDP GROWTH RATE (%)

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
6.8 3.7 1.7 3.8 2.4

AGRICULTURE GROWTH

YEAR %
2007‐08 1.0
2008‐09 4.0
2009‐10 0.6
2010-11 1.2

PAKISTAN: EMPLOYED & UNEMPLOYED

YEAR 2009-10 (MILLION NO.)
Labour force 54.92
Employed 51.87
unemployed 3.05

YEAR ON YEAR OF INDICES (Base 2007-08)

INDEX FEBRUARY OVER FEBRUARY % CHANGES
2011-12 2010-11 2009-10
CPI 11.05 12.85 10.22
SPI 5.22 15.28 17.11
WPI 7.20 22.11 18.17

INTEREST RATE SPREAD OF PAKISTAN (%)

YEARS AVERAGE YIELD ON EARNING ASSETS AVERAGE COST OF INTEREST LIABILITIES SPREAD
(a) (b) (a-b)
CY98 14.0 8.5 5.4
CY99 12.7 7.7 5.0
CY00 11.3 6.6 4.7
CY01 11.2 6.1 5.1
CY02 8.7 4.3 4.5
CY03 5.7 2.0 3.8
CY04 5.0 1.5 3.5
CY05 7.5 2.6 5.0
CY06 9.1 3.9 5.2

MONTH-WISE WORKERS' REMITTANCES (Million US $) (P)

MONTHLY CASH INFLOW
(INCLUDING FEBCS & FCBCS)
FY12 FY11 FY10

% CHANGE

FY12 FY11
August 1,310.47 933.06 780.53 40.45 19.54
September 890.42 922.06 806.12 -3.43 14.38
October 1,017.87 855.11 758.29 19.03 12.77
November 924.92 926.89 742.79 -0.21 24.78
December 1,085.35 863.13 697.60 25.75 23.73
January 1,110.64 826.57 667.90 34.37 23.76
February 1,156.81 845.28 589.03 36.86 43.50
Monthly average for period July-February 1,074.10 870.41 723.39 23.40 20.32

PAKISTAN'S DEBT AND LIABILITIES (Rs. Billion ) (provisional)

DEBT /LIABILITIES FY09 FY10 FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12
I. Government Domestic Debt 3,860.7 4,654.0 6,017.0 6,224.58 6,866.3
II. Government External Debt 3,452.0 3,667.1 3,987.8 4,057.66 4,140.3
III. Debt from IMF 419.0 690.3 768.7 758.64 759.7
IV. External liabilities 103.7 220.8 222.0 222.61 226.5
V. Private Sector External Debt 197.5 217.8 248.4 274.49 273.6
VI. PSEs External Debt 87.0 106.5 91.1 97.30 99.9
VII. PSEs Domestic Debt 290.0 375.0 411.5 436.77 130.0
VIII. Commodity Operations Debt 336.2 414.6 399.5 396.73 335.9
A. Total Debt and Liabilities (sum I to VIII) 8,746.1 10,346.1 12,146.1 12,468.79 12,832.2
B. Total Public Debt (sum I to IV) 7,835.3 9,232.2 10,995.5 11,263.49 11,992.8
C. Total External Debt & Liabilities (sum II to VI) 4,259.2 4,902.4 5,318.0 5,410.70 5,500.1
D. Commodity Operation and PSEs Debt (sum VI to VIII) 713.2 896.1 902.1 930.80 565.8
Guaranteed Debt & liabilities 348.6 428.2 406.7 413.01 351.7
Non-Guaranteed Debt & Liabilities 364.6 467.9 495.4 517.79 214.1