ENERGY DEFICIT

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Oct 24 - 30, 2011

SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF ELECTRICITY IN PAKISTAN (MW)

. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Existing Generation 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903
Proposal / Committed Generation 10,115 10,556 13,307 13,520 14,607 16,134 18,448 18,448 18,448 18,448
Total Existing/
Committed Generation
26,018 26,459 29,210 29,423 30,510 32,037 34,351 34,351 34,351 34,351
Expected Available Generation 20,814 21,167 23,368 23,538 24,408 25,630 27,481 27,481 27,481 27,481
Demand (Summer Peak) 20,874 22,460 24,126 25,919 28,029 30,223 35,504 34,918 37,907 41,132
Surplus/Deficit Generation -60 -1,293 -758 -2,381 -3,621 -4,593 -8,023 -7,437 -10,426 -13,651

CURRENT STATUS OF ON-GRID WIND POWER GENERATION PROJECTS

S.NO COMPANY LOCATION S.NO COMPANY LOCATION
1 New Park Energy Pvt Ltd Gharo 12 Lucky Energy (Pvt) Ltd Jhampir
2 Tenaga Generasi Ltd. Kuttikun 13 Metro Power Co. (Pvt) Jhampir
3 Green Power (Pvt) Ltd, Kuttikun 14 Gul Ahmed Energy Ltd, Jhampir
4 Dawood Power Ltd. Bhambore 15 Zorlu Enerji, Jhampir
5 Master Wind Energy Ltd, Jhampir 16 Wind Eagle Ltd. (Tech. Plc Ltd), Jhampir
6 Zephyr Power Ltd Bhambore 17 Wind Eagle Ltd. (Technology Plc Ltd), Jhampir
7 Beacon Energy Ltd. Kuttikun 18 Sapphire Wind Power Company (Pvt) Ltd, Jhampir
8 HOM Energy (Private) Ltd, Jhampir 19 CWE Jhampir
9 Sachal Energy Development Pvt Ltd, Jhampir 20 Abbas Steel Group Bhambore
10 Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. Jhampir 21 Abbas Steel Group Bhambore
11 Arabian Sea Wind Energy Pvt. Ltd. Lakha

NEPRA: TARIFF DETERMINATIONS FOR FIVE IPPs

S.NO NAME OF IPP TARIFF (US$ CENTS PER KWH) DATE ANNOUNCED
1 Green Power Pvt Ltd 10.2852 27-Apr-07
2 Dawood Power Ltd 11.87 6-Dec-08
3 Zorlu Enerji Pakistan Ltd 12.1057 23-May-08
4 Arabian Sea Wind Energy Pvt Ltd 11.92 12-May-10
5 Fauji Fertilizer Company Energy Ltd. 16.109 10-Aug-10

MAJOR HYDRO ELECTRICITY SITES

Diamir Basha Dam 4500 MW
Bunji 5400 MW
Other small and medium size projects 22,000 MW
Total Potential: 31,000 MW
Total estimated investment: 60 billion US$

ANNUAL EXPECTED CAPACITY (IPP’s)

YEAR ( MW)
Projects already commissioned 586
2010 2,806
2011-12 672
2013 501
2014 612
2015 2,292
2016 888
2017 2,488
Total 10,845

TARIFF FOR KESC (March 2011)

Monthly Meter Rent * Electricity duty rates of Domestic = 6% Commercial / Bulk Supply & Agricultural = 4% Industrial 3.5% of Energy Charges
Single phase Rs 7.50 Polyphase upto 20 Amps 15.00
Polyphase 20-90 Amp 20.00

ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

FY PETROLEUM PRODUCTS GAS ELECTRICITY COAL
TOONS (000) CHANGE
(%)
(MMCFT) CHANGE
(%)
(GWH) CHANGE
(%)
M.T* (000) CHANGE
(%)
2001-02 16,960 -3.9 824,604 7.4 50,622 4.2 4,408.60 9.0
2002-03 16,452 -3.0 872,264 5.8 52,656 4.0 4,889.90 10.9
2003-04 13,421 -18.4 1,051,418 20.5 57,491 9.2 6,064.50 24.0
2004-05 14,671 9.3 1,161,043 10.4 61,327 6.7 7,893.80 30.2
2005-06 14,627 -0.3 1,223,385 5.4 67,603 10.2 7,714.00 -2.3
2006-07 16,847 15.2 1,221,994 -0.1 72,712 7.6 7,894.10 2.3
2007-08 18,080 7.3 1,275,212 4.4 73,400 0.9 10,110.60 28.1
2008-09 17,911 -0.9 1,269,433 -0.5 70,371 -4.1 8,390 -17.0
2009-10 19,132 6.8 1,277,821 0.66 74,348 5.65 8,139 -2.99
Avg. 9 years . 1.3 . 6.0 . 4.9 . 9.1
July-March
2009-10 13,937 - 959,475 - 54,653 - 5,304 -
2010-11 (e) 13,802 -0.97 939,960 -2.03 56,194 2.8 5,850 10.29

CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (000 tones)
(Percentage Change)

YEAR HH CHG
(%)
IND CHG
(%)
AGRI CHG
(%)
TRA CHG
(%)
POW CHG
(%)
O.G CHG
(%)
TOTAL
2003-04 231 -18.4 1,493 -6.9 184 -6.6 8,464 4.7 2,740 -54.5 309 16.2 13,421
2004-05 193 -16.5 1,542 3.3 142 -22.8 9,025 6.6 3,452 26.0 317 2.6 14,671
2005-06 129 -33.2 1,682 9.1 82 -42.3 8,157 -9.6 4,219 22.2 359 13.2 14,627
2006-07 106 -17.8 1,596 -5.1 97 18.3 7,982 -2.1 6,741 59.8 . -9.5 16,847
2007-08 121 14.1 1,071 -32.9 109 12.7 9,384 17.6 7,084 5.1 311 -4.5 18,080
2008-09 97 -19.5 9,69 -9.5 70 -36.2 8,837 -5.8 7,750 6.9 367 18.2 17,911
2009-10 90 -7.5 985 1.6 58 -16.9 8,861 0.3 8,814 16.4 323 -12.0 19,131
2010-11 67 -1. 5 919 22.5 36 -18.2 6,599 0.3 5,913 1 -5.7 267 19.7 13,80
HH: HOUSEHOLD, IND: INDUSTRY, AGRI: AGRICULTURE, CHG: CHANGE, TRA: TRANSPORT, OG: OTHER GOVT., POW: POWER
Note: 2010-11 July to March

CONSUMPTION OF GAS
(Billion cft) (Percent change) (July-march)

YEAR HH CHG
(%)
COM CHG
(%)
CEM CHG
(%)
FER CHG
(%)
POWER CHG
(%)
IND CHG
(%)
TRA
(CNG)
MMCFT
CHG
(%)
2009-10 184.5 - 28.6 - 1.7 - 162.5 - 264.8 - 246.1 - 71,225 -
2010-11(p) 185.9 0.75 27.2 -5.0 0.6 -64.7 166.9 -2.7 264.3 -0.2 223.6 -9.2 81,400 14.3
HH: HOUSEHOLD, CHG: CHANGE, COM: COMMERCIAL, IND: INDUSTRIAL, FER: FERTILIZER, CEM: CEMENT, TRA:  TRANSPORT

FDI INFLOWS IN PAKISTAN ($ Million)

SECTOR 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11  2011-12 (JUL-AUG)
Oil & Gas 202.4 193.8 312.7 545.1 634.8 775 740.6 512.2 51
Power -14.2 73.4 320.6 193.4 70.3 130.6 -120.6 155.8 16.4