FOOD INFLATION

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Sep 12 - 18, 2011

HISTORICAL INFLATION REPORT

Persons LAK KNU GAK ZAB GZH BB NS BB NS PM YRG
Years 1947-51 1951-53 1958-69 1972-77 1977-88 1988-90 1990-93 1993-96 1997-99 1999-2008 2008 till date
Flour 20 paisa 25 paisa 50 paisa Rs 1 Rs 2.50 Rs 3.25 Rs 4 Rs 6.60 Rs 8 Rs 17 Rs 31.00
Sugar 60 paisa 75 paisa Rs 1.75 Rs 6 Rs 9 Rs10 Rs 13 Rs 21 Rs 21 Rs 30 Rs 72.00
Ghee Rs 2.50 Rs 3 Rs 5 Rs 9 Rs 15 Rs 20 Rs 32 Rs 48 Rs 48 Rs 135 Rs 193.00
Dal 25 paisa 35 paisa Rs 1.50 Rs 2.50 Rs 9 Rs 10 Rs 18 Rs 18 Rs 20 Rs 42 Rs 88.00
Meat Rs 1.25 Rs 1.75 Rs 12 Rs 16 Rs 40 Rs 50 Rs 80 Rs 110 Rs 110 Rs 285 Rs 350.00
Petrol 15 paisa 0.35 paisa Rs 2.75 Rs 3.45 Rs 7.75 Rs 12 Rs 14 Rs 18.55 Rs 27 Rs 62 Rs 85.12
LAK: Liaqat Ali Khan, KNU: Khuaja Nazim uddin, GAK: Gen Ayub Khan, ZAB: Z.A Bhutto, GZH: Gen Ziaul haq, BB: Benazir Bhutto, NS: Nawaz Sharif, PM: Pervaiz Musharraf, YRG: Yousuf Raza Gilani

CPI, SPI AND WPI ON YEARLY BASIS

PERIOD % CHANGE OVER
CPI SPI WPI
2001-02 3.54 3.37 2.08
2002-03 3.10 3.58 5.57
2003-04 4.57 6.83 7.91
2004-05 9.28 11.55 6.75
2005-06 7.92 7.02 10.10
2006-07 7.77 10.82 6.94
2007-08 12.00 16.81 16.41
2008-09 20.77 23.41 18.19
2009-10 11.73 13.32 12.63
2010-11 13.92 18.18 23.35

BALANCE OF TRADE (million US $)

PERIOD EXPORTS IMPORTS BALANCE OF TRADE
2005-06 16,553 24,994 -8,441
2006-07 17,278 26,989 -9,711
2007-08 20,427 35,397 -14,970
2008-09 19,121 31,747 -12,627
2009-10 19,673 31,209 -11,536
2010-11 P 25,461 35,637 -10,176

POPULATION

YEARS GROWTH RATES %
1951 61 2.45
1961 72 3.66
1972 81 3.05
1981 98 2.69
2010 2.05

EMPLOYED AND UNEMPLOYED IN PAKISTAN (mn No.)

YEAR 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Labour force 50.33 51.78 53.72 54.92
Employed 47.65 49.09 50.79 51.87
unemployed 2.68 2.69 2.93 3.05

INTEREST RATES IN PAKISTAN

DATE RATES (%)
30-Jan-10 12.5
27-Mar-10 12.5
24-May-10 12.5
2-Aug-10 13.00
30-Sep-10 13.5
30-Nov-10 14.00
1-Aug-11 13.5

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX BY FOOD AND BEVERAGES (2000-01= 100)

FOOD & BEVERAGES GROUP
WEIGHT
IN %
INDICES CHANGE JULY, 2011 OVER
JUNE,
2011
JULY,
2011
JUNE,
2011
JULY,
2010
JULY,
2011
JUN,
2011
JULY,
2010
IN % IN PERCENTAGE POINTS (IMPACT)
Food & beverages 40.34 303.58 294.29 258.19 3.16 17.58 1.38 7.24
Non-perishable food items 35.20 302.63 297.02 257.22 1.89 17.65 0.70 6.34
Perishable food items 5.14 310.15 275.55 264.76 12.55 17.14 0.68 0.90

INDIVIDUAL ITEMS OF WPI (% CHANGE)

ITEMS WEIGHT %CHANGE
JUL-APR 2010-11/
JUL-APR 200-10
%POINT
CONTRIBUTION
Rice 0.71 12.82 0.09
Gram 0.21 10.33 0.02
Sugar 3.12 32.36 1.01
Vegetable Ghee 2.50 33.29 0.83
Tea 0.22 11.29 0.03
Meat 3.99 27.90 1.11
Vegetables 0.77 47.41 0.36
Milk 4.05 16.62 0.67
Cotton 1.48 106.36 1.58
Cotton Yarn 1.81 68.75 1.25
Motor Fuel 1.53 8.46 0.13
Other Oils 0.23 13.86 0.03

IMPACT OF FOOD PRICE INCREASES ON POVERTY
($1.25-a-day poverty line)

COUNTRY CHANGE IN PERCENTAGE OF POOR
(IN PERCENTAGE POINTS)
WITH AN INCREASE IN FOOD PRICES BY
CHANGE IN NUMBER OF POOR
(IN MILLIONS)
WITH AN INCREASE IN FOOD PRICES BY
10 % 20 % 30 % 10 % 20 % 30 %
Bangladesh 2.5 5.0 7.5 3.83 7.65 11.48
India Rural 2.9 5.8 8.8 22.82 45.64 69.45
India Urban 2.1 4.3 6.4 6.68 13.36 20.04
Pakistan 2.2 4.5 6.7 3.47 6.94 10.41
Bhutan 1.8 3.5 5.3 0.01 0.02 0.03
Philippines 1.6 3.2 4.9 1.37 2.75 4.12
Sri Lanka 1.2 2.4 3.6 0.24 0.47 0.71
Thailand 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.05 0.10 0.15
Viet Nam 1.9 3.7 5.6 1.55 3.10 4.65

IMPACT OF DOMESTIC FOOD PRICE INCREASE ON POVERTY FOR DEVELOPING ASIA

  POVERTY BEFORE PRICE INCREASE POVERTY AFTER FOOD PRICE INCREASE BY
10 % 20 % 30 %
Based on $1.25-a-day poverty line Percentage of Poor (%) 27.1 29 30.9 32.9
Change in percentage of poor   1.9 3.9 5.8
(percentage points) 903 968 1032 1097
Change in number of poor (in millions)   64.4 128.8 193.2
Poverty gap ratio (%) 6.79 8.15 9.51 10.86
Change in poverty gap ratio(percentage points)   1.4 2.7 4.1