POVERTY ALLEVIATION

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Aug
1 - 7, 2011

BUDGETARY POVERTY RELATED EXPENDITURES BY SECTORS
(Rs. Million)

SECTORS 2006-07 2007-08 2008/09 2009-10 2010-11 (JULY-DEC)
Roads, Highways & Bridges 60,003 84,825 99,613 98,456 21,121
Water Supply and Sanitation 16,619 19,817 22,204 25,459 6,640
Education 162,084 182,646 240,378 259,525 153,582
Health 53,166 61,127 83,714 94,399 40,898
Population Planning 7,002 13,322 5,345 7,048 2,245
Social Security & Welfare 4,513 18,942 29,129 54,571 22,606
Natural Calamities 5,008 7,728 10,083 12,548 -
Agriculture 74,771 83,493 88,912 104,815 35,357
Land Reclamation 2,348 3,130 2,738 1,990 980
Rural Development 22,175 23,334 16,362 20,391 4,838
Subsidies 5,455 54,872 220,567 234,926 74,458
Food Support Programme 3,458 4,370 12,420 0 -
People’s Works Programme-I 20 1,420 3,329 8,417 662
People’s Works Programme-II 2,499 2,748 28,000 31,754 -
Low Cost Housing 299 597 583 1,828 67
Justice Administration 5,081 7820 9,193 10,996 6,284
Law and Order 2,088 2,429 104,658 143,639 72,922
Total 3426,680 572,620 977,228 1,110,762 482,615
Total as % age of GDP 4.89 5.57 7.46 7.57 -

IMPACT OF FOOD PRICE INCREASES ON POVERTY
($1.25-a-day poverty line)

COUNTRY CHANGE IN PERCENTAGE OF POOR (IN PERCENTAGE POINTS) WITH AN INCREASE IN FOOD PRICES BY CHANGE IN NUMBER OF POOR
(IN MILLIONS) WITH AN INCREASE IN FOOD PRICES BY
10 % 20 % 30 % 10 % 20 % 30 %
Bangladesh 2.5 5.0 7.5 3.83 7.65 11.48
India Rural 2.9 5.8 8.8 22.82 45.64 69.45
India Urban 2.1 4.3 6.4 6.68 13.36 20.04
Pakistan 2.2 4.5 6.7 3.47 6.94 10.41
Bhutan 1.8 3.5 5.3 0.01 0.02 0.03
Philippines 1.6 3.2 4.9 1.37 2.75 4.12
Sri Lanka 1.2 2.4 3.6 0.24 0.47 0.71
Thailand 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.05 0.10 0.15
Viet Nam 1.9 3.7 5.6 1.55 3.10 4.65

IMPACT OF DOMESTIC FOOD PRICE INCREASE ON POVERTY FOR DEVELOPING ASIA

. POVERTY BEFORE PRICE INCREASE POVERTY AFTER FOOD PRICE INCREASE BY
10 % 20 % 30 %
Based on $1.25-a-day poverty line Percentage of Poor (%) 27.1 29 30.9 32.9
Change in percentage of poor . 1.9 3.9 5.8
(percentage points) 903 968 1032 1097
Change in number of poor (in millions) . 64.4 128.8 193.2
Poverty gap ratio (%) 6.79 8.15 9.51 10.86
Change in poverty gap ratio (percentage points) . 1.4 2.7 4.1

EMPLOYED AND UNEMPLOYED IN PAKISTAN (million No.)

YEAR 2003-04 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Labour force 45.5 50.05 50.33 51.78 53.72 54.92
Employed 42 46.94 47.65 49.09 50.79 51.87
unemployed 3.5 3.1 2.68 2.69 2.93 3.05

POPULATION GROWTH RATES

YEARS %
1951 – 61 2.45
1961 – 72 3.66
1972 – 81 3.05
1981 – 98 2.69
2010 2.05

SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS

INDICATORS 2009-10 (1ST JULY) 2010-11 (1ST JULY)
Total Population (million) 173.5 177.10
Urban Population (million) 63.05 65.3
Rural Population (million) 110.46 111.8
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 3.6 3.5
Crude Birth Rate (per thousand) 28.4 27.50
Crude Death Rate (per thousand) 7.6 7.30
Population Growth Rate (percent) 2.1 2.05
LIFE EXPECTANCY (YEARS)
- Female 65.4 67.9
- Males 63.6 64.18

AGRICULTURE GROWTH (%)

YEAR %
2005-06 6.3
2006-07 4.1
2007-08 1.0
2008-09 4.0
2009-10 0.6
2010-11 1.2

PAKISTAN: POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS (Millions Nos.)

AGE GROUP 1998 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
00-04 14.80 21.81 22.76 23.28 22.44 20.35
05-09 15.65 20.17 21.33 22.35 22.95 22.18
10-14 12.95 20.19 20.07 21.24 22.28 22.88
15-19 10.37 19.88 20.12 20.01 21.19 22.24
20-24 8.97 17.22 19.80 20.05 19.95 21.14
25-29 7.37 14.81 17.13 19.71 19.98 19.89
30-34 6.22 12.50 14.72 17.04 19.62 19.91
35-39 4.77 10.49 12.40 14.62 16.94 19.53
40-44 4.44 8.64 10.36 12.27 14.49 16.81
45-49 3.53 7.09 8.49 10.20 12.01 14.31
50-54 3.21 5.81 6.88 8.26 9.95 11.84
55-59 2.15 4.68 5.53 6.57 7.93 9.60
60-64 2.04 3.64 4.31 5.13 6.14 7.45
65+ 3.50 6.60 7.82 9.39 11.39 13.93
TOTAL 132.35 173.51 191.71 210.13 227.35 242.05

GDP GROWTH (%)

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
6.8 3.7 1.7 3.8 2.4