OIL & GAS

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
July 25 - 31, 2011

OIL PRICES (Rs)

MONTHS PREMIUM MOTOR GASOLINE HOBC KEROSENE OIL LIGHT DIESEL OIL INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY OIL PRICES PER BARREL ($)
July -2010 67.95 80.61 65.38 61.66 72.51
Aug-2010 67.74 80.34 64.85 61.35 74.15
Sep-2010 67.26 79.85 65.57 62.67 74.34
Oct-2010 66.99 79.56 65.80 62.34 79.86
Nov-2010 72.96 86.67 70.95 66.61 82.83
Dec -2010 79.67 94.36 74.99 70.97 88.56
Jan-2011 72.96 86.67 70.95 66.61 92.83
Feb-2011 80.19 95.25 77.95 73.21 100.29
Mar-2011 76.58 90.96 74.45 69.91 109.48
Apr-2011 83.56 98.12 84.10 78.98 118.09
May-2011 88.41 99.92 89.70 88.30 109.94
Jun-2011 84.00 - 84.65 92.8 109.04
July-2011 84.00 - 84.65 92.8 110.60

CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (000 tones)
(Percentage Change)

YEAR HH CHG
(%)
IND CHG
(%)
AGRI CHG
(%)
TRA CHG
(%)
POWER CHG
(%)
OG CHG
(%)
2007-08 121 14.1 1,071 -32.9 109 12.7 9,384 17.6 7,084 5.1 311 -4.5
2008-09 97 -19.5 9,69 -9.5 70 -36.2 8,837 -5.8 7,750 6.9 367 18.2
2009-10 90 -7.5 985 1.6 58 -16.9 8,861 0.3 8,814 16.4 323 -12.0
2010-11 67 -1.5 919 22.5 36 -18.2 6,599 0.3 5,913 -5.7 267 19.7
AGRI: AGRICULTURE, HH: HOUSE HOLD, CHG: CHANGE, TRA: TRANSPORT, OG: OTHER GOVERNMENT, IND: INDUSTRY
Note: 2010-11- July to March

CHANGE IN PRICE INDICES IN ENERGY RELATED ITEMS

ITEMS WEIGHT %CHANGE % POINT CONTRIBUTION
Kerosene 0.14 13.2 0.0
Electricity 4.37 20.9 0.9
Natural gas 2.05 8.5 0.2
Petrol 1.73 8.5 0.1
Diesel 0.21 14.6 0.0
CNG. Filling charges 0.16 9.8 0.0
Total 8.66 - 1.3

AVERAGE GAS CHARGES (AVERAGE OF 12 CENTERS)

FISCAL YEAR GAS CHARGES (100 CF)
2003-04 79.45
2004-05 84.6
2005-06 88.92
2006-07 99.79
2007-08 97.17
2008-09 96.91
JUL-APR
2008-09 96.30
2009-10 105.10

CONTRIBUTION OF PRICE-HIKE OF UTILITIES AND TRANSPORT RELATED ITEMS IN SPI

ITEMS WEIGHT IN SPI %CHANGE
JUL-APR 2010-11/
JUL-APR 2009-10
% POINT CONTRIBUTION
Kerosene 0.22 14.94 0.03
Electricity 10.94 19.77 2.16
Gas 2.12 9,8 0.21
Petrol 5.16 10 0.52
Diesel 0.31 16.14 0.1
LPG. 0.16 29.18 0.09

GLOBAL LPG CONSUMPTION DURING 2008

SECTOR PER CENT
Domestic 46.7
Chemicals 26.8
Refinery 50
Transport 8.7
Industry 11.3
Agriculture 1.5

NGVS & STATIONS (DEC-09)

COUNTRY NATURAL GAS VEHICLES REFUELING STATIONS
Pakistan 2,300,000 3,140
Argentina 1,807,186 1,851
Iran 1,665,602 1,021
Brazil 1,632,101 1,704
India 935,000 560
Italy 628,624 730
China 450,000 870
Colombia 300,000 460
Ukraine 200,000 285
Bangladesh 177,555 500

ENERGY CONSUMPTION( 2008-09)

Electricity 15.3 %
Oil 29%
Gas 43.7%
LPG 1.5%
Coal 10.4%

IMPORTS PAYMENTS (JULY-MAY) ("000"US $)

PETROLEUM GROUP 2009-10 2010-11
a. Petroleum Products 5,852,973 7,390,672
b. Petroleum Crude 3,473,594 3,542,179

WORLD NATURAL GAS RESERVES

COUNTRY TRILLION CUBIC FT
Russia 1,680.0
Iran 1,045.7
Qatar 899.3
Saudi Arabia 263.0
USA 244.7
UAE 214.4
Nigeria 185.3
Venezuela 176.0
Algeria 159.0

FINAL ENERGY SUPPLIES

YEAR CRUDE OIL GAS PETROLEUM
PRODUCTS
MILLION
BARRELS
CHANGE
(%)
(BCF) CHANGE
(%)
(MLN.T.) CHANGE
(%)
2005-06 87.5 2.6 1,400.00 4.1 17 1.2
2006-07 85.3 -2.5 1413.6 1.0 18.6 9.7
2007-08 90.5 6.1 1454.2 2.9 19.8 6.1
2008-09 86.1 4.9 1460.7 0.44 19.8 0
2009-10 86.1 0 1460.7 0 19.8 0
Avg.9 Year - 2.9 - 6.3 - 1.1
JUL-MARCH
2009-10(e) 38.8 - 1109.3 - 16.3 -
2010-11(e) 35.6 -8.2 1109.9 0.1 15.8 -3.1

CONSUMPTION OF GAS (Jul-Mar) (Billion cft)

YEAR 2008-09 2009-10(p) 2010-11
Household 171.9 184.5 185.9
Commercial 26.4 28.6 27.2
Cement 6.1 1.7 0.6
Fertilizer 149.6 162.5 166.9
Power 278.3 264.8 264.3
Industrial 233.8 246.1 223.6
Transport(CNG)Pmmcft 65,725.0 71,225.0 81,400

PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS (MMCFD)

COMPANY 2010-11 (JUL-MAR)
BHP 399.77
ENI 1 486.89
Dewan 28.88
MGCL 502.02
OGDCL 853.74
OMV 446.43
OPII 13.01
POL 21.46
PPL 765.58
Tullow 0.50
PEL 27.57
BP 189.61
Petronas 13.52
MOL 301.85
Total: 4,050.84

PRODUCTION OF CRUDE OIL (BPOD)

REGION 2009-10 JULY-MARCH 2010-11
CHANGE (%)
2009-10 2010-11
Northern Region 28,471.29 27,659.17 34,762.28 25.68
Dewan 112.52 102.02 211.21 107.02
OGDCL 15,327.11 15,095.17 18,236.27 20.81
OPII 591.55 532.93 658.18 23.50
POL 3,999.66 4,079.64 3,401.00 -16.63
PPL 4,748.64 4,635.96 4,925.16 6.24
MOL 3,691.81 3,213.47 7,330.47 128.12
Southern Region 36,477.06 37,586.52 31,234.22 -16.90
OGDCL 21,029.06 21,683.20 18,615.34 -14.15
BP (Pak) 11,487.48 12,001.83 8,625.29 -28.13
PPL 584.94 411.86 1,233.66 199.53
BHP 2,841.99 2,949.74 2,228.26 24.46
OMV 63.33 70.05 54.28 -22.51
ENI 340.63 340.87 355.34 4.25
MGCL 2.19 2.28 7.30 220.16
Petronas 127.43 126.68 114.15 -9.89
Total: 64,948.35 65,245.69 65,996.50 1.15