PAK-CHINA TRADE RELATIONS

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Jan 17 - 23, 2011

PAKISTAN EXPORTS TO CHINA (Value In 000 $, July-June )

PRODUCT INCREASE PRODUCT DECREASE

PRODUCT

2009-10 PRODUCT 2009-10 PRODUCT 2009-10
Cotton Yarn 634,029 Rice basmati 383 Cotton cloth 77,474
Fish & Fish Prep. 55,995 Foot balls complete 363 Plastic materials 14,449
Leather 41,891 Handicrafts 329 Other chemical 8,148
Raw Cotton 29,836 Apparel & clothing 290 Surgical goods,med. 2,163
Feed. Stuff for animals 24,380 Animal hair 280 Oil seeds, nuts & kernals 485
Marbles and stones 15,760 Towels 227 W. Carpets & rugs 251
Bed wear 7,422 Tule, lace, embr. Etc 226 Other machinery 155
Pig iron 6,670 Raw hides and skins 220 Leather gloves 128
Guar and guar 5,774 Pharmaceutical prod. 212 Machinery specialized 103
Y. oth. Than c. Yarn 5,368 Oth. Elect. Machinery 199 Other (sports) 88
Cotton thread 4,132 Oth. Leather manuf. 136 Kintted or croch. Fab. 87
Cotton waste 3,685 House-hold equip 131 Rice other varieties 31
Fruits 3,342 Crude animal mater. 125 Prec./semi-prec.stone 16
Articles of plastic 2,596 Furniture 109 Raw wool 9
Art silk & Tex. 2,276 Waste material of tex. 63 Fruit & veg.juices 9
Petroleum products 2,037 Books & print.matters 48 Carpets knott. & oth. 8
Cutlery 1,977 Auto parts 33 Leather footwear 3
Tex.made ups exc.t.& bed. 1,519 Vegetables 28 Spices(incl. Chillies) 2
Knitwears 1,284 Cement 12 Rubber manuf. -
Ready made gar. 1,019 Transport equipment 10 Jewellery -
Gloves (sports) 650 Other footwear 4 Parts of footwear -
Onyx manuf. 504 Other commodities 194,678 Paper & paper board -

COUNTRY WISE FDI INFLOWS IN PAKISTAN ($ MN)

COUNTRY 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11(Jul-Nov)
USA 869.9 468.3 91
UK 263.4 294.6 95.1
U.A.E 178.1 242.7 102.3
Japan 74.3 26.8 0.1
Hong Kong 156.1 9.9 86.4
Switzerland 227.3 170.6 111.6
Saudi Arabia -92.3 -133.8 5.7
Germany 76.9 53 5.4
Korea(South) 2.3 2.3 1.1
Norway 101.1 0.4 0.4
China -101.4 -3.6 3.9
Privatization Proceeds 0 0 0
FDI Excl. Pvt. Proceeds 3,719.90 2,150.80 573.3

CORE INFLATION OF CPI IN PAK 2010 (%)

MONTHS TRIMMED NON-FOOD & NON ENERGY
Jan 12.7 10.3
Feb 12.4 10.1
Mar 12.7 9.9
Apr 12.7 10.6
May 12.5 10.3
Jun 11.7 10.4
Jul 12.0 10.3
Aug 12.5 9.8
Sep 12.8 9.4
Oct 12.8 9.3
Nov 13.4 9.5
change over corresponding month of last year

CHINA: STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMY

INDICATORS 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
GDP (RMB billion 15'988 18'321 21'192 25'730 30'067 33'535
GDP (USD billion) 1'931 2'235 2'657 3'382 4'401 4'909
GDP per capita (RMB) 12'299 14'012 16'122 19'477 22'646 25'125
GDP per capita (USD) 1486 1'710 2'022 2'560 3'315 3'676
GDP growth (%) 10.1 10.4 11.6 13 9 8.7
CPI inflation (%) 3.9 1.8 1.5 4.8 5.9 -0.7
Population (billion) 1.300 1.308 1.314 1.321 1.328 1.335
Unemployment rate
Level - registered (Millions) 8.3 8.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Rate - registered in urban (%) 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 N/A
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)** -1.3 -1.2 -0.8 0.6 -0.3 -2.2
C/A balance (% of GDP) 3.6 7.2 9.5 11.0 10.0 5.8
Total External Debt (% of GDP) 12.8 12.2 11.4 11 8.5 n/a
Debt-service ratio (% of exports) 3.4 3.1 2.4 2.2 1.8 n/a
Reserves, incl. Gold (USD billion) in months of imports 12 13 16.7 17.6 n/a n/a

GDP RATE IN PAKISTAN

YEAR PER CENT
2001-02 3.1
2002-03 4.7
2003-04 7.5
2004-05 9
2005-06 5.8
2006-07 6.8
2007-08 5.8
2008-09 2.4
2009-10 2.4
2010-11 2-3

PAK: INTEREST RATES

DATE RATE (%)
1-Aug-07 10
31-Jan-08 10.5
23-May-08 12
30-Jul-08 13
13-Nov-08 15
15-Aug-09 13
25-Nov-09 12.5
Aug-10 13.00
0ct-10 13.50
Nov-10 14.00

CHINA: FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

COUNTRY/ REGION FDI (MIO. USD) 2009 SHARE (%) 2009 VARIATION (%)YOY
1 Hong Kong 46'075 51.18 12.27
2 Virgin Islands 11'299 12.55 -29.18
3 Japan 4'105 4.56 12.40
4 Singapore 3'605 4.00 -18.71
5 South Korea 2'700 3.00 -13.88
6 Cayman Islands 2'582 2.87 -17.90
7 United States 2'555 2.84 -13.21
8 West Samoa 2'020 2.24 -20.75
9 Taiwan 1'881 2.09 -0.95
10 Germany 1'217 1.35 35.22
Switzerland 300.0 0.33 23.66
Total 90'033 - -2.60

PAK: BALANCE OF TRADE (US mn $)

PERIOD EXPORTS VALUE IMPORTS VALUE BOT
2005-06 16,553 24,994 -8,441
2006-07 17,278 26,989 -9,711
2007-08 20,427 35,397 -14,970
2008-09 19,121 31,747 -12,627
2009-10 19,632 31,054 -11,422
Jul-10 1,660 2,917 -1,256
Aug-10 1,810 2,921 -1,111
Sep-10 1,775 2,366 -598
Oct-10 1,835 2,609 -774
Nov-10 1,958 2,748 -790

CHINA: KEY INDICATORS

Discount Rate (from 2010-12-31) 1.63%
Interbank Overnight Call-loan Rate (2011-01-11) 0.25%
Foreign Exchange Reserves (2010.12)(US$ Billion) 382.01
NT$/US$ Closing Rate (2011-01-11) 29.7


CUMULATIVE IMPORTS BY MAJOR COUNTRIES (Mn Rs.)

COUNTRIES JUL-2010 TO JUL-2010 JUL-2009 TO JUL-2009
VALUE % SHARE VALUE % SHARE
1 Saudi Arabia 41,603.07 15.02 17,107.31 7.90
2 China 40,371.39 14.58 27,349.37 12.64
3 UAE 36,891.11 13.32 28,084.56 12.98
4 Malaysia 13,172.85 4.76 9,533.94 4.41
5 Kuwait 13,157.17 4.75 14,321.44 6.62
6 Iran 12,819.59 4.63 8,490.28 3.92
7 U.S.A. 11,180.96 4.04 1 1,662.59 5.39
8 Thailand 9,612.65 3.47 3,801.99 1.76