LOAD-SHEDDING

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
May 30 - June 5, 2011

SUPPLY AND DEMAND POSITION: 2011-2020 (MW)

. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Existing Generation 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903
Proposal / Committed Generation 10,115 10,556 13,307 13,520 14,607 16,134 18,448 18,448 18,448 18,448
Total Existing/
Committed Generation
26,018 26,459 29,210 29,423 30,510 32,037 34,351 34,351 34,351 34,351
Expected Available Generation 20,814 21,167 23,368 23,538 24,408 25,630 27,481 27,481 27,481 27,481
Demand (Summer Peak) 20,874 22,460 24,126 25,919 28,029 30,223 35,504 34,918 37,907 41,132
Surplus/
Deficit Generation
-60 -1,293 -758 -2,381 -3,621 -4,593 -8,023 -7,437 -10,426 -13,651


PROJECTED SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN NTDC SYSTEM

FINANCIAL YEAR ENDING 30 JUNE PLANNED GENERATION CAPABILITY AS PER NTDC (MW) NTDC PROJECTED DEMAND GROWTH RATE (%) NTDC PROJECTED DEMAND DURING PEAK HOURS (MW)
2011 17367 7.86 20873
2012 18913 7.60 22459
2013 21299 7.42 24126
2014 21668 7.43 25918
2015 30510 7.70 28029

PROJECTED SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN KESC SYSTEM

FINANCIAL YEAR ENDING 30 JUNE PLANNED GENERATION CAPABILITY AS PER KESC (MW) KESC PROJECTED DEMAND GROWTH RATE (%) KESC PROJECTED DEMAND DURING PEAK HOURS (MW)
2011 2419 5.00 2690
2012 2833 5.00 2825
2013 2913 5.00 2966
2014 3413 5.00 3114
2015 3713 5.00 3270


INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY TARIFF BY KESC DURING 2011

S.NO TARIFF CATEGORY/ PARTICULARS FIXED CHANGES RS/KW/M VARIABLE CHANGES .
BI Less than 5 kw (at 400/230 volts) - 9.08 .
B2 (a) 5-500 kw (at 400 volts 360.00 7.74 .
B3(a) For all loads up to 5000 kw (at 11,33 kv) 349.00 7.80 .
B4(a) For all loads up to 5000 kw (at 66,132 kv & above) 336.00 7.26 .
. TIME USE . PEAK OFF-PEAK
B2 (a) 5-500 kw (at 400 v) 360.00 11.21 6.63
B3 (b) For all loads up to 5000 kw (at 11,33 kv) 349.00 11.30 6.38
B4 (b) For all loads up to 5000 kw (at 66,132 kv & above) 336.00 10.90 6.09
B5 For all loads (at 220 kv & above) 336.00 9.23 6.05


DAILY POWER SITUATION (MW)

Generation 12175
Load Management 5985
Computed Demand 18160
KESC Export (Maximum) 700
GENERATION CONTRIBUTION:
(i) Hydel 4928
(ii) PEPCO Thermal 1267
(iii) IPPs 5904
(iv) Rental 76


PEPCO: FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS

YEAR ANNUAL CAPACITY PLANNED (MW)
2009-10 1,200
2010-11 2,966
2011-12 1,357
2012-13 2,140
2013-14 1,426
2014-15 1,060
2015-16 1,959
2016-17 2,597
2017-18 2,596


COMMERCIAL ENERGY SUPPLIES

FISCAL YEAR

ELECTRICITY

OIL (000 BARRELS) GAS
(MCF) +
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (000 TONNES) COAL (000 TONNES) ELECTRICITY
CRUDE OIL IMPORTS LCE IMPORTS PRO IMPORTS PRO INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) GEN
(GWH)
2004-05 61,161 24,119 1,344,953 5,676 10,474 3,307 4,587 19,384 85,738
2005-06 63,546 23,936 1,400,026 6,009 10,498 2,843 4,871 19,450 93,774
2006-07 60,694 24,615 1,413,581 8,330 10,314 4,251 3,643 19,420 98,384
2007-08 64,912 25,603 1,454,194 9,025 10,754 5,987 4,124 19,420 95,860
2008-09 62,115 24,033 1,460,679 9,974 9,828 4,652 3,738 19,786 91,843
JUL-MAR
2008-09 44,151 18,230 1,092,309 7,094 7,138 3,000 e 1,822 p 19,575 60,793 p
2009-10 38,840 17,877 1,109,360 8,619 7,685 3,600 e 1,704 p 19,650 65,582 p
LCE: LOCAL CRUDE EXTRACTION, PRO: PRODUCTION, GEN: GENERATION


FDI INFLOWS IN POWER ($ MILLION)

2004-05 73.4
2005-06 320.6
2006-07 193.4
2007-08 70.3
2008-09 130.6
2009-10 -120.6
2009-10 (Jul-Apr) -7.9
2010-11 (Jul-Apr) 132.2


COMMERCIAL ENERGY SUPPLIES

FISCAL YEAR

ELECTRICITY
HYDROELECTRIC (HYDEL) THERMAL NUCLEAR IMPORTED (GWH)
INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) GEN (GWH) INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) GEN (GWH) INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) GEN (GWH)

2005-06

6,499 30,862 12,489 60,283 462 2,484 146

2006-07

6,479 31,953 12,478 63,972 462 2,288 171

2007-08

6,480 28,707 12,478 63,877 462 3,077 199

2008-09

6,481 27,784 12,843 62,214 462 1,618 227

JUL-MAR

2008-09

6,481 20,526 12,632 p 39,154 462 918 195

2009-10 (e)

6,481 23,535 12,707 p 39,342 p 462 2,521 185


COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY ELECTRICITY & COAL

FISCAL YEAR

ELECTRICITY (GWH)

COAL (000 METRIC TONNE)
TRC HH COM IND AGRI SL OTHER GOVT. HH POWER BK CEMENT

2005-06

13

30,720

4,730

19,803

7,949

353

4,035

..

149.3

4,221.8

3,342.8

2006-07

12

33,335

5,363

21,066

8,176

387

4,373

1.0

164.4

3,277.5

4,451.2

2007-08

8

33,704

5,572

20,729

8,472

415

4,500

1.0

162.0

3,760.7

6,186.9

2008-09

5

32,282

5,252

19,330

8,795

430

4,277

0.8

112.5

3,274.8

5,001.8

JUL-MAR

2008-09

4

23,643

3,829

14,563

6,501

307

6,767

0.8

110.0

2,911.6

1,800.0

2009-10

2

24,868

4,133

14,726

7,227

364

3,333

..

77.7

3,126.5

2,100.0

TRC: TRACTION, HH: HOUSE-HOLD, COM: COMMERCIAL,  IND: INDUSTRIAL, AGRI: AGRICULTURAL, SL: STREET LIGHT, BK: BRICK KILNS,