PRE BUDGET 2011-12

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
May 2 - 15, 2011

ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF PAKISTAN

INDICATORS 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 (Jul-Mar)
2010-11
Exports (Bn $) 14.39 16.47 17.01 19.22 17.79 19.63 17.95
Imports (Bn $) 20.6 28.58 30.54 39.96 34.82 31.05 25.96
Trade Balance (Bn $) 6.21 12.11 -13.53 -20.74 -17.03 -11.42 -8.09
FDI (Bn $) 1.52 3.52 5.13 5.15 3.72 2.21 1.08
Foreign Investment (Bn $) 16.68 3.87 8.42 5.19 2.67 2.14 1.32
Worker Remittances (Bn $) 4.17 4.6 5.49 6.5 7.81 8.91 8.02
Forex Reserves (Bn $) 12.61 13.14 15.18 10.83 12.23 16.07 17.62
Exchange Rate (Rs. / US$) 59.66 60.16 60.5 71 88.9 86.21 84.46
GDP Growth (%) 8.40 6.60 7.00 5.80 2.10 4.10 4.10
Inflation (%) 9.30 8 7.90 10.30 13.10 12.90 14.08

PRICES OF OIL PRODUCTS IN PAKISTAN (Rs)

MONTHS JP-1 JP-4 JP-8 PREMIUM MOTOR GASOLINE HOBC KEROSENE OIL LIGHT DIESEL OIL INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY OIL PRICES PER BARREL ($)
May-2010 58.46 55.54 61.24 75.08 89.19 68.89 65.76 74.48
June -2010 55.36 52.63 58.21 69.04 82.04 65.49 62.61 72.95
July -2010 55.20 51.46 58.04 67.95 80.61 65.38 61.66 72.51
Aug-2010 54.76 50.22 57.48 67.74 80.34 64.85 61.35 74.15
Sep-2010 55.45 51.56 58.22 67.26 79.85 65.57 62.67 74.34
Oct-2010 55.65 52.16 58.45 66.99 79.56 65.80 62.34 79.86
Nov-2010 61.18 58.59 64.09 72.96 86.67 70.95 66.61 82.83
Dec -2010 64.65 62.48 67.57 79.67 94.36 74.99 70.97 88.56
Jan-2011 68.48 65.11 71.39 72.96 86.67 70.95 66.61 92.83
Feb-2011 74.37 68.45 77.28 80.19 95.25 77.95 73.21 100.29
Mar-2011 74.37 68.45 77.28 76.58 90.96 74.45 69.91 109.84
April-2011 82.95 76.33 85.96 83.56 98.12 84.10 78.98 118.09
May-2011 86.44 80.05 89.74 88.41 99.92 89.70 88.30 113.48

SHARE OF PROVINCES IN FEDERAL REVENUE RECEIPTS (RS.MN)

CLASSIFICATION BUDGET 2009-10 REVISED 2009-10 BUDGET 2010-11
Income Tax 226,826 220,129 352,667
Capital Value Tax 3,081 1,881 2,645
Sales Tax & GST 134,588 143,808 328,630
1/6th of the Sales Tax 79,170 84,593 -
Federal Excise (Net of Gas) 55,921 54,729 82,346
Customs Duties 70,235 68,924 99,490
Royalty on Crude Oil 7,814 13,961 15,037
Royalty on Natural Gas 26,516 25,697 29,439
Surcharge on Gas 29,338 29,395 27,061
Excise Duty on Natural Gas 6,458 6,251 7,144
GST (Provincial) 15,270 5,907 89,183
Total 655,217 655,277 1,033,643

PROVINCE- WISE SHARE

Punjab 334,407 331,588 494,257
Sindh 194,049 199,283 279,630
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 85,329 88,894 160,359
Balochistan 41,433 35,512 99,398
Total 655,217 655,277 1,033,64

POVERTY REDUCTION

COUNTRY PERIOD

HEADCOUNT POVERTY RATES

NO, OF POOR (MN)

FINAL (%)

FINAL

PR

Bangladesh 1992-2005

9.6

76

4.4

China (R) 1990-2005

26.1

204.2

409.9

China (U) 1990-2005

1.7

9.1

64.1

India (R) 1988-2005

43.8

353.3

-8.9

India (U) 1988-2005

36.2

117.3

-19.2

Iran 1990-2005

1.5

1

1.2

Pakistan 1991-2005

22.6

37.5

39.2

Sri Lanka 1985-2002

14

2.7

0.6

PR: Poverty reduction, urban: U, rural: R

ECONOMIC AFFAIRS (Rs. Mn)

CLASSIFICATION BUDGET 2009-10 REVISED 2009-10 BUDGET 2010-11
ECONOMIC AFFAIRS 84,926 80,608 66,897
General Economic, Commercial and Labour Affair 35,169 30,544 24,603
Agriculture, Food, Irrigation, Forestry and Fishing 38,300 38,304 29,821
Fuel and Energy 468 660 507
Mining and Manufacturing 1,715 1,634 1,806
Construction and Transport 6,919 6,919 7,503
Communication 1,689 1,689 1,773
Other Industries 666 858 885

INTEREST RATES

MONTHS/ YEARS RATE (%)
1-Aug-07 10.00
31-Jan-08 10.5
23-May-08 12.00
30-Jul-08 13.00
13-Nov-08 15.00
15-Aug-09 13.00
25-Nov-09 12.5
10-Aug 13.00
0ct-10 13.5
10-Nov 14.00

PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR CROPS

CROPS FY09 FY10P FY11 TARGETS FY11E YOY GROWTH IN FY11
AREA UNDER CULTIVATION (000 HECTARES)
Cotton 2,850 3,106 3,200 3,142 1.2
Sugarcane 1,029 943 1,070 1,047 11.0
Rice 2,963 2,883 2,708 2,642 -8.4
Wheat 9,046 9,105 9,045 - -
Gram 1,092 1,050 1,122 - -
Maize 1,062 950 1,010 - -
PRODUCTION (000 TONS; COTTON IN 000 BALES OF 170.09 KG EACH)
Cotton 12,060 12,914 14,010 11,700 -9.4
Sugarcane 50,045 49,373 53,665 49,400 0.1
Rice 6,954 6,883 6,048 5,949 -13.6
Wheat 24,032 23,917 25,000 25,000f 4.5
Gram 740 571 619 - -
Maize 3,548 3,477 3,452 - -
YIELD (KG/HECTARE)
Cotton 720 707 745 633 -10.4
Sugarcane 48,635 52,357 51,000 47,182 -9.9
Rice 2,347 2,387 2,228 2,252 -5.7
Wheat 2,657 2,627 2,764 - -
Gram 696 544 552 - -
Maize 3,341 3,660 3,419 - -

INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY TARIFF BY KESC DURING 2011

S.NO TARIFF CATEGORY/ PARTICULARS FIXED CHANGES RS/KW/M VARIABLE CHANGES
BI Less than 5 kw (at 400/230 volts) - 9.08
B2 (a) 5-500 kw (at 400 volts 360.00 7.74
B3(a) For all loads up to 5000 kw (at 11,33 kv) 349.00 7.80
B4(a) For all loads up to 5000 kw (at 66,132 kv & above) 336.00 7.26
. Time use . Peak Off-peak
B2 (a) 5-500 kw (at 400 v) 360.00 11.21 6.63
B3 (b) For all loads up to 5000 kw (at 11,33 kv) 349.00 11.30 6.38
B4 (b) For all loads up to 5000 kw (at 66,132 kv & above) 336.00 10.90 6.09
B5 For all loads (at 220 kv & above) 336.00 9.23 6.05

IMPORT PAYMENTS BY PETROLEUM GROUP (thousand US $)

GROUP JULY-JUNE MAR FEB MAR JULY-MAR
2008-09 2009-10 2010 2011 2011 2009-10 2010-11
Petroleum Group 10,031,945 10,463,495 711,781 1,296,505 1,308,124 7,431,517 8,665,932
a.Petroleum Products 5,599,340 6,646,012 428,002 827,924 774,603 4,679,684 5,886,077
b.Petroleum Crude 4,432,605 3,817,483 283,779 468,581 533,521 2,751,833 2,779,855