OUTLOOK 2011

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
May
2 - 15, 2011

COUNTRY WISE FDI INFLOWS IN PAKISTAN ($ million)

COUNTRY 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2009-10
(Jul-Mar)
2010-11
(Jul-Mar)
USA 516.7 913.1 1,309.30 869.9 468.3 343.6 162.3
UK 244 860.1 460.2 263.4 294.6 168 159.9
U.A.E 1,424.50 661.5 589.2 178.1 242.7 136.8 194.6
Japan 57 64.4 131.2 74.3 26.8 16.7 1.8
Hong Kong 24 32.6 339.8 156.1 9.9 -56.7 81.3
Switzerland 170.6 174.7 169.3 227.3 170.6 103.8 31.9
Saudi Arabia 277.8 103.5 46.2 -92.3 -133.8 -56.6 5.8
Germany 28.6 78.9 69.6 76.9 53 42.5 12.6
Korea (South) 1.6 1.5 1.2 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.6
Norway 252.6 25.1 274.9 101.1 0.4 0.5 -48.3
China 1.7 712 13.7 -101.4 -3.6 -10.2 7
Others 521.9 1,512.20 2,005.20 1,964.20 1,019.60 813.8 472
Total including Pvt. Proceeds 3,521.00 5,139.60 5,409.80 3,719.90 2,150.80 1,503.90 1,082.50
Privatization Proceeds 1540.3 266.4 133.2 0 0 0 0
FDI Excluding Pvt. Proceeds 1,980.70 4,873.20 5,276.60 3,719.90 2,150.80 1,503.90 1,082.50

FATALITIES IN TERRORIST VIOLENCE IN PAKISTAN

YEAR CIVILIANS SECURITY FORCES (SFS) TERRORISTS TOTAL
2003 140 24 25 189
2004 435 184 244 863
2005 430 81 137 648
2006 608 325 538 1471
2007 1523 597 1479 3599
2008 2155 654 3906 6715
2009 2307 1011 8267 11585
2010 1796 469 5170 7435
2011 226 98 384 708

PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR CROPS

CROPS FY09 FY10P FY11
TARGETS
FY11E YOY GROWTH
IN FY11
AREA UNDER CULTIVATION (000 HECTARES)
Cotton 2,850 3,106 3,200 3,142 1.2
Sugarcane 1,029 943 1,070 1,047 11.0
Rice 2,963 2,883 2,708 2,642 -8.4
Wheat 9,046 9,105 9,045 - -
Gram 1,092 1,050 1,122 - -
Maize 1,062 950 1,010 - -
PRODUCTION (000 TONS; COTTON IN 000 BALES OF 170.09 KG EACH)
Cotton 12,060 12,914 14,010 11,700 -9.4
Sugarcane 50,045 49,373 53,665 49,400 0.1
Rice 6,954 6,883 6,048 5,949 -13.6
Wheat 24,032 23,917 25,000 25,000f 4.5
Gram 740 571 619 - -
Maize 3,548 3,477 3,452 - -
YIELD (KG/HECTARE)
Cotton 720 707 745 633 -10.4
Sugarcane 48,635 52,357 51,000 47,182 -9.9
Rice 2,347 2,387 2,228 2,252 -5.7
Wheat 2,657 2,627 2,764 - -
Gram 696 544 552 - -
Maize 3,341 3,660 3,419 - -

TREND IN POVERTY INDICATORS (%)

YEAR URBAN RURAL PAKISTAN
1998-99 20.9 34.7 30.6
2000-01 22.7 39.3 34.5
2004-05 14.9 28.1 23.9
2005-06 13.1 27.0 22.3

INTEREST RATES TREND

MONTHS/
YEARS
30-JUL-2008 13-NOV-2008 15-AUG-2009 25-NOV-2009 AUG-2010 0CT-2010 NOV-2010
Rate (%) 13 15 13 12.5 13.00 13.50 14.00

SECTOR -WISE AGRI-CREDIT DISBURSEMENT GROWTH (%)

. FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Subsistence holding -3.5 10.7 3.0 -15.1
Economic holding 1.3 6.1 14.2 -6.1
Above economic holding 84.8 -18.1 10.1 -8.7
Farm credit 7.0 4.4 6.6 -12.0
Small farm -16.9 45.5 12.7 10.9
Large farm 333.9 21.8 6.1 13.5
Non-farm credit 147.5 26.0 7.4 13.0
Total 25.9 10.2 6.9 -4.4

SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS

. FY09 FY10 FY11
GROWTH RATE (%)
LSM Jul-Jan -5.3 3.0 1.0
Exports (fob) Jul-Feb 3.5 1.9 24.6
Imports (cif) Jul-Feb -1.5 -8.2 17.3
Tax revenue (FBR) Jul-Jan 23.0 10.2 10.9
CPI (12 month ma) Feb 21.7 12.6 13.9
Private sector credit Jul-Mar 3.8 4.8 6.7
Money supply (M2)1 Jul-Mar 2.1 5.7 9.4
BILLION US DOLLARS
Total liquid reserves2 End Feb 10.6 15.1 18.1
Home remittances Jul-Feb 4.9 5.8 7.0
Net foreign investment Jul-Jan 1.9 0.9 1.2
PERCENT OF GDP
Fiscal deficit Jul-Dec 2.0 2.7 2.9
Trade deficit Jul-Feb 7.2 5.4 5.4
Current a/c deficit Jul-Feb 4.9 1.7 0.05

POVERTY REDUCTION

COUNTRY PERIOD HEADCOUNT
POVERTY RATES
NO, OF POOR (MN)
FINAL (%) FINAL PR
Bangladesh 1992-2005 9.6 76 4.4
China (R) 1990-2005 26.1 204.2 409.9
China (U) 1990-2005 1.7 9.1 64.1
India (R) 1988-2005 43.8 353.3 -8.9
India (U) 1988-2005 36.2 117.3 -19.2
Iran 1990-2005 1.5 1 1.2
Pakistan 1991-2005 22.6 37.5 39.2
Sri Lanka 1985-2002 14 2.7 0.6
PR: Poverty reduction, urban: U, rural: R

AGE WISE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)

AGE GROUP 2008-09
10-14 9.3
15-19 9.5
20-24 7.3
25-29 4.3
30-34 2.6
35-39 1.7
40-44 1.5
45-49 2.4
50-54 4.6
55-59 6.1
60 yrs & above 12.7

FBR TAX COLLECTION (Jul-Dec)

TAXES

NET COLLECTION

FY10 FY11
Direct taxes 211.4 240.9
Indirect taxes 370.8 420.8
Sales tax 242.9 282.6
FED 56.7 58.1
Customs 71.2 80.0
Total collection 582.2 661.7
Net: billion rupees

COMMERCIAL ENERGY SUPPLIES

FISCAL YEAR

ELECTRICITY

HYDROELECTRIC (HYDEL)

THERMAL

NUCLEAR

IMPORTED (GWH)

INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW)

GEN (GWH)

INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW)

GEN (GWH)

INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW)

GEN (GWH)

2007-08 6,480 28,707 12,478 63,877 462 3,077 199
2008-09 6,481 27,784 12,843 62,214 462 1,618 227
JUL-MAR
2008-09 6,481 20,526 12,632 p 39,154 462 918 195
2009-10 (e) 6,481 23,535 12,707 p 39,342 p 462 2,521 185
GEN: GENERATION