DOCUMENTATION & ECONOMY

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Apr
18 - 24, 2011

PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR CROPS

CROPS FY09 FY10P FY11 TARGETS FY11E YOY GROWTH IN FY11
AREA UNDER CULTIVATION (000 HECTARES)
Cotton 2,850 3,106 3,200 3,142 1.2
Sugarcane 1,029 943 1,070 1,047 11.0
Rice 2,963 2,883 2,708 2,642 -8.4
Wheat 9,046 9,105 9,045 - -
Gram 1,092 1,050 1,122 - -
Maize 1,062 950 1,010 - -
PRODUCTION (’000 TONS; COTTON IN ’000 BALES OF 170.09 KG EACH)
Cotton 12,060 12,914 14,010 11,700 -9.4
Sugarcane 50,045 49,373 53,665 49,400 0.1
Rice 6,954 6,883 6,048 5,949 -13.6
Wheat 24,032 23,917 25,000 25,000f 4.5
Gram 740 571 619 - -
Maize 3,548 3,477 3,452 - -
YIELD (KG/HECTARE)
Cotton 720 707 745 633 -10.4
Sugarcane 48,635 52,357 51,000 47,182 -9.9
Rice 2,347 2,387 2,228 2,252 -5.7
Wheat 2,657 2,627 2,764 - -
Gram 696 544 552 - -
Maize 3,341 3,660 3,419 - -

PAK: INTEREST RATES

MONTHS/ YEARS RATE (%)
1-Aug-07 10
31-Jan-08 10.5
23-May-08 12
30-Jul-08 13
13-Nov-08 15
15-Aug-09 13
25-Nov-09 12.5
Aug-10 13.00
0ct-10 13.50
Nov-10 14.00

SECTOR -WISE AGRI-CREDIT DISBURSEMENT GROWTH (%)

. FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Subsistence holding -3.5 10.7 3.0 -15.1
Economic holding 1.3 6.1 14.2 -6.1
Above economic holding 84.8 -18.1 10.1 -8.7
Farm credit 7.0 4.4 6.6 -12.0
Small farm -16.9 45.5 12.7 10.9
Large farm 333.9 21.8 6.1 13.5
Non-farm credit 147.5 26.0 7.4 13.0
Total 25.9 10.2 6.9 -4.4

SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS

. FY09 FY10 FY11
GROWTH RATE (%)
LSM Jul-Jan -5.3 3.0 1.0
Exports (fob) Jul-Feb 3.5 1.9 24.6
Imports (cif) Jul-Feb -1.5 -8.2 17.3
Tax revenue (FBR) Jul-Jan 23.0 10.2 10.9
CPI (12 month ma) Feb 21.7 12.6 13.9
Private sector credit Jul-Mar 3.8 4.8 6.7
Money supply (M2)1 Jul-Mar 2.1 5.7 9.4
BILLION US DOLLARS
Total liquid reserves2 End Feb 10.6 15.1 18.1
Home remittances Jul-Feb 4.9 5.8 7.0
Net foreign investment Jul-Jan 1.9 0.9 1.2
PERCENT OF GDP
Fiscal deficit Jul-Dec 2.0 2.7 2.9
Trade deficit Jul-Feb 7.2 5.4 5.4
Current a/c deficit Jul-Feb 4.9 1.7 0.05

PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

. FY10 FY11
ACTUAL ANNUAL
PLAN TARGETS
SBP PROJECTIONS
GDP (%) 4.1 4.5 2.0 – 3.0
Average CPI inflation 11.7 9.5 14.5-15.5
Monetary assets (M2) 12.5 - 14.5 – 15.5
BILLION US DOLLARS
Workers’ remittances 8.9 9.0 10.0-11.0
Exports (fob-BoP data) 19.6 20.0 23.0-24.0
Imports (fob-BoP data) 31.1 31.7 34.5- 35.5
PERCENT OF GDP
Fiscal deficit 6.3 4.0 5.5-6.5
Current account deficit 2.0 3.4 1.0-1.5

TREND IN POVERTY INDICATORS (%)

YEAR URBAN RURAL PAKISTAN
1998-99 20.9 34.7 30.6
2000-01 22.7 39.3 34.5
2004-05 14.9 28.1 23.9
2005-06 13.1 27.0 22.3

PAKISTAN: POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS (PROJECTION (000s))

AGE GROUP 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
TOTAL M+F 173,383 192,262 211,397 229,377 246,272
MALES
0-4 11,886 12,429 12,711 12,350 12,062
5-9 9,287 11,631 12,205 12,513 12,180
10-14 9,936 9,210 11,554 12,133 12,446
15-19 10,047 9,878 9,161 11,503 12,084
20-24 9,767 9,958 9,801 9,089 11,428
25-29 7,729 9,655 9,859 9,706 9,001
30-34 6,099 7,627 9,555 9,763 9,617
35-39 4,957 6,008 7,536 9,459 9,673
40-44 4,349 4,869 5,919 7,440 9,354
45-49 3,926 4,249 4,770 5,812 7,320
50-54 3,331 3,795 4,120 4,637 5,664
55-59 2,633 3,155 3,609 3,932 4,440
60-64 1,854 2,416 2,911 3,346 3,662
65-69 1,341 1,625 2,133 2,587 2,992
70-74 973 1,100 1,346 1,782 2,179
75+ 1,077 1,271 1,482 1,796 2,315
TOTAL 89,190 98,874 108,670 117,849 126,417

AGE WISE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

AGE GROUP

TOTAL (%)

2007-08 2008-09
10-14 9.0 9.3
15-19 8.7 9.5
20-24 6.8 7.3
25-29 4.1 4.3
30-34 2.3 2.6
35-39 1.5 1.7
40-44 1.6 1.5
45-49 2.5 2.4
50-54 3.7 4.6
55-59 6.6 6.1
60 yrs & above 12.5 12.7

POVERTY REDUCTION

COUNTRY PERIOD HEADCOUNT POVERTY RATES NO, OF POOR (MN)
FINAL (%) FINAL PR
Bangladesh 1992-2005 9.6 76 4.4
China (R) 1990-2005 26.1 204.2 409.9
China (U) 1990-2005 1.7 9.1 64.1
India (R) 1988-2005 43.8 353.3 -8.9
India (U) 1988-2005 36.2 117.3 -19.2
Iran 1990-2005 1.5 1 1.2
Pakistan 1991-2005 22.6 37.5 39.2
Sri Lanka 1985-2002 14 2.7 0.6
PR: Poverty reduction, urban: U, rural: R

BUDGET: EXPENDITURE & DEVELOPMENT DURING 2010- 11 (Rs. Bn)

EXPENDITURE
(A)CURRENT 1997.9
General Public Service 1387.7
Defence Affairs & Services 442.2
Public Order Safety Affairs 51.3
Economic Affairs 66.9
Environment Protection 0.4
Housing and Community 1.8
Health Affairs and Services 7.3
Recreational, Culture Services 4.4
Education Affairs Service 34.5
Social Protection 1.5
(B) DEVELOPMENT
PSDP 663
Federal Government 290
Provincial Government 373
Est. Operational Shortfall -20
Other Dev. Expenditure 123.5
TOTAL EXPENDITURE ( A + B ) 2764.4
* Out of which FBR collection has been estimated at Rs 1667 billion.

FBR TAX COLLECTION (Jul-Dec)

NET COLLECTION GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH OF THE LAST % OF ANNUAL TARGET
FY10 FY11 FY10 FY11 5 YEARS 10 YEARS FY10 FY11
Direct taxes 211.4 240.9 0.5 13.9 21.9 14.0 37.4 36.7
Indirect taxes 370.8 420.8 7.9 13.5 15.0 11.7 49.4 56.0
Sales tax 242.9 282.6 11.8 16.4 17.3 15.0 48.6 44.6
FED 56.7 58.1 5.8 2.6 19.2 7.1 37.1 41.2
Customs 71.2 80.0 -2.1 12.3 6.8 7.7 43.9 46.2
Total collection 582.2 661.7 5.1 13.7 17.3 12.4 42.2 41.2
Net: billion rupees; growth in percent