ADO 2011 RELEASED
INFLATION IS SET TO ACCELERATE TO 5.1PC IN 2011.
Apr 11 - 17, 2011
Asian Development Outlook 2011 (ADO 2011), released on Wednesday, forecasts regional GDP growth of 7.8 per cent in 2011 and 7.7 per cent the following year.
The projected growth rates are lower than the 9 per cent posted in 2010, but show that the region continues its firm recovery from the global economic crisis.
At the same time, rising food and oil prices, stoked by upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, along with the recent emergency in Japan, present a potential threat to sustained, inclusive growth.
According to the report, developing Asia will continue to expand solidly over the next two years, even as inflation, geopolitical uncertainties, and the need to develop new sources of growth present looming challenges to policy makers.
The reports says, inflation will need to be carefully managed using a mix of policy measures, including more flexible exchange rate management and coordinated capital controls, rather than simply relying on tighter monetary policy.
After expanding at 4.4 per cent in 2010, report says consumer prices are set to accelerate further to 5.3 per cent in 2011 before easing back slightly to 4.6 per cent in 2012.
"Developing Asia is home to two-thirds of the world's poor and it is they who are most vulnerable to the effects of price increases," said Changyong Rhee, ADB's Chief Economist in a message.
"Policy makers must therefore consider preemptive action to control inflation before it accelerates," Rahee added.
In the longer run, developing Asia will have to forge stronger links with non-traditional markets to maintain growth and to make it more inclusive, the report says.
It notes that there is considerable potential to broaden South-South links with fast growing emerging economies, both within Asia, as well as in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. To do this, however, policy makers will need to remove barriers to trade and investment within the South, which are currently higher than those with the industrial world. East Asia will continue to lead the region's post-crisis recovery with projected growth of 8.4 per cent in 2011 and 8.1 per cent in 2012, although the forecast expansion rates are below the 9.6 per cent recorded in 2010, as the unwinding of fiscal stimulus measures, slower investment and less heated export growth kick in.
The PRC is expected to post growth of 9.6 per cent in 2011, down from 2010's heady 10.3 per cent rise, while Hong Kong, China, the Republic of Korea, and Taipei, China settle back to more sustainable growth of around 5 per cent after a sharp 2010 rebound.
Most economies are tightening monetary policy amid rising commodity prices with inflation forecast to pick up to 4.3 per cent in 2011 from 3.1 per cent in 2010.
Southeast Asia's expansion will moderate after an exceptionally strong recovery in 2010, with growth coming in at 5.5 per cent for 2011 and 5.7 per cent in 2012.
The figures are well below the 7.8 per cent recorded last year, and reflect a higher base, slower export growth, and fiscal and monetary policy tightening. Inflation is set to accelerate to 5.1 per cent in 2011, from 4 per cent in 2010, with Viet Nam likely to post a double digit rate. With appropriate policy measures, Southeast Asia's average inflation is expected to come down to 4.2 per cent in 2012.
According to the report, South Asia will maintain its recent robust economic performance with forecast growth of 7.5 per cent in 2011 and 8.1 per cent in 2012, following a 7.9 per cent expansion in 2010. India's 2010 performance was particularly strong and broad-based, even with fiscal consolidation and monetary tightening, and the economy is set to strengthen further to post 8.2 per cent growth in 2011 and 8.8 per cent in 2012.
Pakistan's devastating floods weighed on its growth performance, while the end of the conflict in Sri Lanka continued to help underpin its economic expansion.
Central Asia has been benefiting from higher international prices for its key commodities including oil and gas, metals, cotton and gold.
Growth is forecast to quicken to 6.7 per cent in 2011 and 6.9 per cent in 2012, from 6.6 per cent in 2010. Inflation is set to accelerate to 8.2 per cent in 2011 from 7.1 per cent in 2010, driven by higher food prices in all countries and higher energy prices in those which import oil.
The resource-rich economies of Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste and Solomon Islands will drive growth in the Pacific this year as they benefit from higher global prices for commodities, new investment and increased government revenue from mineral resources, the report says.
The growth rate for 2011 is projected to come in at 6.3 per cent before settling back to 5.4 per cent in 2012. Inflation is set to hit 6.5 per cent in 2011, from 5.9 per cent in 2010, before falling back to 5.6 per cent in 2012, the report adds.