OIL PRICES & INFLATION

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Apr
11 - 17, 2011

CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (000 tones)
(Percentage Change)

YEAR HH CHG
(%)
IND CHG
(%)
AGR CHG
(%)
TRA CHG
(%)
POWER CHG
(%)
OG CHG
(%)
TOTAL
2003-04 231 -18.4 1,493 -6.9 184 -6.6 8,464 4.7 2,740 -54.5 309 16.2 13,421
2004-05 193 -16.5 1,542 3.3 142 -22.8 9,025 6.6 3,452 26.0 317 2.6 14,671
2005-06 129 -33.2 1,682 9.1 82 -42.3 8,157 -9.6 4,219 22.2 359 13.2 14,627
2006-07 106 -17.8 1,596 -5.1 97 18.3 7,982 -2.1 6,741 59.8 . -9.5 16,847
2007-08 121 14.1 1,071 -32.9 109 12.7 9,384 17.6 7,084 5.1 311 -4.5 18,080
JULY-MARCH.
2007-08 82 . 861 . 87 . 6816 . 5255 . 243 . 13342
2008-09 75 -8 718 -17 50 -42 6307 -7 5497 5 245 1 12892
HH: HOUSE HOLD, IND: INDUSTRY, AGR: AGRICULTURE, TRA: TRANSPORT, OG: OTHER GOVERNMENT

PAKISTAN: PRICES OF OIL PRODUCTS

MONTHS JP-1 JP-4 JP-8 PREMIUM MOTOR GASOLINE HOBC KEROSENE OIL LIGHT DIESEL OIL INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY OIL PRICES PER BARREL ($)
May-2010 58.46 55.54 61.24 75.08 89.19 68.89 65.76 74.48
June -2010 55.36 52.63 58.21 69.04 82.04 65.49 62.61 72.95
July -2010 55.20 51.46 58.04 67.95 80.61 65.38 61.66 72.51
Aug-2010 54.76 50.22 57.48 67.74 80.34 64.85 61.35 74.15
Sep-2010 55.45 51.56 58.22 67.26 79.85 65.57 62.67 74.34
Oct-2010 55.65 52.16 58.45 66.99 79.56 65.80 62.34 79.86
Nov-2010 61.18 58.59 64.09 72.96 86.67 70.95 66.61 82.83
Dec -2010 64.65 62.48 67.57 79.67 94.36 74.99 70.97 88.56
Jan-2011 68.48 65.11 71.39 72.96 86.67 70.95 66.61 92.83
Feb-2011 74.37 68.45 77.28 80.19 95.25 77.95 73.21 100.29
Mar-2011 74.37 68.45 77.28 76.58 90.96 74.45 69.91 109.84
April-2011 82.95 76.33 85.96 83.56 98.12 84.10 78.98 115.01

INTEREST RATES

MONTHS/ YEARS RATE (%)
1-Aug-07 10.00
31-Jan-08 10.5
23-May-08 12.00
30-Jul-08 13.00
13-Nov-08 15.00
15-Aug-09 13.00
25-Nov-09 12.5
10-Aug 13.00
0ct-10 13.5
10-Nov 14.00

PAK: BALANCE OF TRADE (US mn $)

PERIOD EXPORTS VALUE IMPORTS VALUE BOT
2005-06 16,553 24,994 -8,441
2006-07 17,278 26,989 -9,711
2007-08 20,427 35,397 -14,970
2008-09 19,121 31,747 -12,627
2009-10 19,632 31,054 -11,422
Jul-10 1,660 2,917 -1,256
Aug-10 1,810 2,921 -1,111
Sep-10 1,775 2,366 -598
Oct-10 1,835 2,609 -774
Nov-10 1,955 2,804 -849
Dec-10 2,100 3,130 -1030
Jan-11 2,041 2,835 -794
Feb-11 2,282 3,007 -725

US $ RATES  PER PAK RUPEE

YEARS LEADARS US $
1972 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 4.7
1977 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 9.9
1983 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 13.1
1987 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 17.7
1990 Benazir Bhutto Rs 24
1991 Nawaz Sharif Rs 25
1994 Benazir Bhutto Rs 30.6
1996 Benazir Bhutto Rs 40.3
1997-99 Nawaz Sharif Rs 53
1999-08 Pervaiz Musharraf Rs 62
Feb-2011 Yousaf Raza Gilani Rs 85.2

EXPORT RECEIPTS BY PETROLEUM GROUP (Thousand US Dollar)

ITEMS

JULY-JUNE FEB JAN FEB JULY-FEB
2008-9 2009-10 2010 2011 2011 2009-10 2010-11
Petroleum Group 983,571 1,183,078 92,279 167,310 161,990 727,311 1,021,766
(a).Petroleum Products 628,404 1,008,350 88,486 134,373 122,738 586,020 861,158
(b).Solid Fuel including Naptha 355,168 174,728 3,793 32,937 39,251 141,291 160,608

IMPORT PAYMENTS BY PETROLEUM GROUP (Thousand US Dollar)

Petroleum Group 10,031,945 10,463,495 873,201 762,353 1,296,505 6,719,737 7,357,808
(a).Petroleum Products 5,599,340 6,646,012 616,708 506,113 827,924 4,251,683 5,111,475
(b).Petroleum Crude 4,432,605 3,817,483 256,493 256,240 468,581 2,468,054 2,246,333

CPI, WPI AND SPI INDICES (%)

PERIOD CPI SPI WPI
2001-02 3.54 3.37 2.08
2002-03 3.10 3.58 5.57
2003-04 4.57 6.83 7.91
2004-05 9.28 11.55 6.75
2005-06 7.92 7.02 10.10
2006-07 7.77 10.82 6.94
2007-08 12.00 16.81 16.41
2008-09 20.77 23.41 18.19
2009-10 11.73 13.32 12.63
2009-10 (Jul-Feb) 11.08 11.84 8.66
2010-11 (Jul-Feb) 14.33 18.88 22.64

COMPANY’S MARKET SHARE IN 2010

COMPANY PER CENT
Parco 31.15
NRL 21.87
PRL 17.18
ARL 14.06
BYCO 11.72

ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN PAKISTAN

FISCAL YEAR PETROLEUM PRODUCTS GAS ELECTRICITY COAL
TONNES (000) CHG (%) (MMCFT) CHG (%) (GWH) CHG(%) M.T* (000) CHG (%)
07-08 18,080 7.3 1,275,212 4.4 73,400 0.9 10,111 28.1
08-09 17,911 -0.9 1,269,433 -0.5 70,371 -4.1 8,390 -17.0
Avg. 10 years . 0.5 - 6.8 - 5.0 - 12.5
Jul-Mar
08-09 12,892 - 931,700 - 55,614 - 4,822 -
09-10 (e) 13,937 8.1 959,475 3.0 54,653 -1.7 5,304 10.0

PAKISTAN: INFLATION REPORT

PER LAK KNU GAK ZAB GZUH BB NW BB NW GPM YRG
YEARS 1947-51 1951-53 1958-69 1972-77 1977-88 1988-90 1990-
93
1993-
96
1997-
99
1999-
2008
2008 till date
Flour 20 paisa 25
paisa
50
paisa
Rs 1 Rs 2.50 Rs 3.25 Rs 4 Rs 6.60 Rs 8 Rs 17 Rs 31.50
Sugar 60 paisa 75
paisa
Rs 1.75 Rs 6 Rs 9 Rs10 Rs 13 Rs 21 Rs 21 Rs 30 Rs 66.00
Ghee Rs 2.50 Rs 3 Rs 5 Rs 9 Rs 15 Rs 20 Rs 32 Rs 48 Rs 48 Rs 135 Rs 192.00
Dal 25 paisa 35
paisa
Rs 1.50 Rs 2.50 Rs 9 Rs 10 Rs 18 Rs 18 Rs 20 Rs 42 Rs 96.00
Meat Rs 1.25 Rs 1.75 Rs 12 Rs 16 Rs 40 Rs 50 Rs 80 Rs 110 Rs 110 Rs 285 Rs 350.00
Petrol 15 paisa 0.35
paisa
Rs 2.75 Rs 3.45 Rs 7.75 Rs 12 Rs 14 Rs
18.55
Rs 27 Rs 62 Rs 76.58
PER: PERSONS, LAK: LIAQAT ALI KHAN, KNU: KHAWAJA NAZIMUDDIN, GAK: GENERAL AYUB KHAN, ZAB: ZULFIQAR ALI BHUTTON, GZUH: GENERAL ZIA UL HAQ, BB: BENAZIR BHUTTO, NW: NAWAZ SHAREEF, GPM: GENERAL PARVAIZ MUSHARAF, YRG: YOUSUF RAZA GILLANI