PAKISTAN DAY

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Mar 28 - Apr 3, 2011

PAKISTAN: INFLATION REPORT

PERSONS LAK KND GAK ZAB GZH BB NS BB NS PM YRG
YEARS 1947-51 1951-53 1958-69 1972-77 1977-88 1988-90 1990-93 1993-96 1997-99 1999-2008 2008 TILL DATE
Flour 20 paisa 25 paisa 50 paisa Rs 1 Rs 2.50 Rs 3.25 Rs 4 Rs 6.60 Rs 8 Rs 17 Rs 33.00
Sugar 60 paisa 75 paisa Rs 1.75 Rs 6 Rs 9 Rs10 Rs 13 Rs 21 Rs 21 Rs 30 Rs 66.00
Ghee Rs 2.50 Rs 3 Rs 5 Rs 9 Rs 15 Rs 20 Rs 32 Rs 48 Rs 48 Rs 135 Rs 192.00
Dal 25 paisa 35 paisa Rs 1.50 Rs 2.50 Rs 9 Rs 10 Rs 18 Rs 18 Rs 20 Rs 42 Rs 96.00
Meat Rs 1.25 Rs 1.75 Rs 12 Rs 16 Rs 40 Rs 50 Rs 80 Rs 110 Rs 110 Rs 285 Rs 350.00
Petrol 15 paisa 0.35 paisa Rs 2.75 Rs 3.45 Rs 7.75 Rs 12 Rs 14 Rs 18.55 Rs 27 Rs 62 Rs 76.58
LAK: LIAQAT ALI KHAN, KND: KHAWAJA NAZIM UDDIN, GAK: GENERAL AYUB KHAN, ZAB: ZULFIQAR ALI BHUTTO, GZH: GENERAL ZIA UL HAQ, BB: BENAZIR BHUTTO, NS: NAWAZ SHAREEF, PM: PARVAIZ MUSHARAF, YRG: YOUSUF RAZA GILLANI

PAKISTAN: PRICES OF OIL PRODUCTS

MONTHS JP-1 JP-4 JP-8 PREMIUM MOTOR GASOLINE HOBC KEROSENE OIL LIGHT DIESEL OIL INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY OIL PRICES PER BARREL ($)
May-2010 58.46 55.54 61.24 75.08 89.19 68.89 65.76 74.48
June -2010 55.36 52.63 58.21 69.04 82.04 65.49 62.61 72.95
July -2010 55.20 51.46 58.04 67.95 80.61 65.38 61.66 72.51
Aug-2010 54.76 50.22 57.48 67.74 80.34 64.85 61.35 74.15
Sep-2010 55.45 51.56 58.22 67.26 79.85 65.57 62.67 74.34
Oct-2010 55.65 52.16 58.45 66.99 79.56 65.80 62.34 79.86
Nov-2010 61.18 58.59 64.09 72.96 86.67 70.95 66.61 82.83
Dec -2010 64.65 62.48 67.57 79.67 94.36 74.99 70.97 88.56
Jan-2011 68.48 65.11 71.39 72.96 86.67 70.95 66.61 92.83
Feb-2011 74.37 68.45 77.28 80.19 95.25 77.95 73.21 100.29
Mar-2011 74.37 68.45 77.28 76.58 90.96 74.45 69.91 109.48

PAK: BALANCE OF TRADE (US mn $)

PERIOD EXPORTS VALUE IMPORTS VALUE BOT
2005-06 16,553 24,994 -8,441
2006-07 17,278 26,989 -9,711
2007-08 20,427 35,397 -14,970
2008-09 19,121 31,747 -12,627
2009-10 19,632 31,054 -11,422
Jul-10 1,660 2,917 -1,256
Aug-10 1,810 2,921 -1,111
Sep-10 1,775 2,366 -598
Oct-10 1,835 2,609 -774
Nov-10 1,955 2,804 -849
Dec-10 2,100 3,130 -1030
Jan-11 2,041 2,835 -794
Feb-11 2,282 3,007 -725

SEGMENTWISE BREAKUP OF FINANCING

ITEMS JUN-10 SEP-10
FINANCING SHARE FINANCING SHARE
Corporate Sector 100.7 61.5 101.6 63.5
SMEs 11.0 6.7 10.7 6.7
Agriculture 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Consumer Finance: 32.0 19.5 29.1 18.1
Credit Cards 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Auto Loans 14.4 8.8 14.7 9.2
Consumer Durable 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mortgage Loan 17.1 10.4 13.8 8.6
Other personal Loans 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3
Commodity Financing 16.4 10.0 14.8 9.3
Staff Loans 3.1 1.9 3.2 2.0
Others 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4
Total 163.8 100.0 160.1 100.0
(amount in billion Rupees, share in percent)

TREND IN POVERTY INDICATORS (%)

YEAR URBAN RURAL PAKISTAN
1998-99 20.9 34.7 30.6
2000-01 22.7 39.3 34.5
2004-05 14.9 28.1 23.9
2005-06 13.1 27.0 22.3

US $ RATES  PER PAK RUPEE

Years Leadars US $
1972 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 4.7
1977 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 9.9
1983 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 13.1
1987 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 17.7
1990 Benazir Bhutto Rs 24
1991 Nawaz Sharif Rs 25
1994 Benazir Bhutto Rs 30.6
1996 Benazir Bhutto Rs 40.3
1997-99 Nawaz Sharif Rs 53
1999-08 Pervaiz Musharraf Rs 62
Feb-2011 Yousaf Raza Gilani Rs 85.55

INTEREST RATES

MONTHS/ YEARS RATE (%)
1-Aug-07 10.00
31-Jan-08 10.5
23-May-08 12.00
30-Jul-08 13.00
13-Nov-08 15.00
15-Aug-09 13.00
25-Nov-09 12.5
10-Aug 13.00
0ct-10 13.5
10-Nov 14.00

CPI, WPI AND SPI INDICES (%)

PERIOD CPI SPI WPI
2001-02 3.54 3.37 2.08
2002-03 3.10 3.58 5.57
2003-04 4.57 6.83 7.91
2004-05 9.28 11.55 6.75
2005-06 7.92 7.02 10.10
2006-07 7.77 10.82 6.94
2007-08 12.00 16.81 16.41
2008-09 20.77 23.41 18.19
2009-10 11.73 13.32 12.63
2009-10 (Jul-Feb) 11.08 11.84 8.66
2010-11 (Jul-Feb) 14.33 18.88 22.64

PAKISTANíS DEBT AND LIABILITIES AS PERCENT OF GDP (p)

ITEM FY09 FY10 9-SEP 10-SEP
Total Debt and Liabilities 68.7 69.5 63.4 73.3
Total Public Debt 61.5 62.1 56.7 66
Total External Debt & Liabilities 33.4 32.4 31.3 34.4
PSEs Debt & Liabilities 5.6 5.9 5.3 5.6
of which: Guaranteed Debt & liabilities 2.7 2.9 2.4 2.7
Non-guaranteed Debt & liabilities 2.9 3 2.9 2.9
Government Domestic Debt 30.3 31.7 27.4 33.8

ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN PAKISTAN

FISCAL YEAR PETROLEUM PRODUCTS GAS ELECTRICITY COAL
TONNES (000) CHG
(%)
(MMCFT) CHG
(%)
(GWH) CHG
(%)
M.T*
(000)
CHG
(%)
07-08 18,080 7.3 1,275,212 4.4 73,400 0.9 10,111 28.1
08-09 17,911 -0.9 1,269,433 -0.5 70,371 -4.1 8,390 -17.0
Avg. 10 years - 0.5 - 6.8 - 5.0 - 12.5
JUL-MAR
08-09 12,892 - 931,700 - 55,614 - 4,822 -
09-10 (e) 13,937 8.1 959,475 3.0 54,653 -1.7 5,304 10.0

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

INDICATORS 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 (JUL-FEB)
2010-11
Worker Remittances (Billion$) 3.872 4.17 4.6 5.49 6.5 7.81 8.91 6.96
Forex Reserves (Billion $) 12.33 12.61 13.14 15.18 10.83 12.23 16.07 17.45
GDP Growth (%) 6.40 8.40 6.60 7.00 5.80 2.10 4.10 4.10