YEAR END REVIEW

S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
(feedback@pgeconomist.com)
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Dec 27, 2010 - Jan 2, 2011

US $ RATES  PER PAK RUPEE

YEARS LEADARS US $
1972 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 4.7
1977 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 9.9
1983 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 13.1
1987 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 17.7
1990 Benazir Bhutto Rs 24
1991 Nawaz Sharif Rs 25
1994 Benazir Bhutto Rs 30.6
1996 Benazir Bhutto Rs 40.3
1997-99 Nawaz Sharif Rs 53
1999-08 Pervaiz Musharraf Rs 62
2010 Yousaf Raza Gilani Rs 85.76

PAKISTAN: ECONOMIC DISASTER

DISASTER DATE COST
Flood 2010 More than $15 bn
Earthquake 2005 5,200,000
Storm 2007 1,620,000
Flood 1992 1,000,000
Flood 2007 327,118
Drought 1999 247,000
Flood 2001 246,000
Flood 1994 92,000
Flood 2005 30,000
Storm 1999 10,936
Earthquake 1991 10,000

GDP RATE IN PAKISTAN

YEAR PER CENT
2001-02 3.1
2002-03 4.7
2003-04 7.5
2004-05 9
2005-06 5.8
2006-07 6.8
2007-08 5.8
2008-09 2.4
2009-10 2.4
2010-11 2-3

PAKISTAN: PRICES OF OIL PRODUCTS IN 2010

MONTHS

JP-1

JP-4

JP-8

PREMIUM
MOTOR
GASOLINE

HOBC

KEROSENE
OIL

LIGHT DIESEL OIL

INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY OIL PRICES PER BARREL ($)

Jan

50.70

49.61

53.39

65.11

79.43

60.75

58.10

76.01

Feb

53.41

52.15

56.05

71.21

86.84

64.06

61.07

71.02

Mar

51.25

49.69

53.96

70.57

86.06

61.50

59.47

77.08

April

54.54

53.10

57.22

73.14

87.56

64.81

62.20

82.33

May

58.46

55.54

61.24

75.08

89.19

68.89

65.76

74.48

June

55.36

52.63

58.21

69.04

82.04

65.49

62.61

72.95

July

55.20

51.46

58.04

67.95

80.61

65.38

61.66

72.51

Aug

54.76

50.22

57.48

67.74

80.34

64.85

61.35

74.15

Sep

55.45

51.56

58.22

67.26

79.85

65.57

62.67

74.34

Oct

55.65

52.16

58.45

66.99

79.56

65.80

62.34

79.86

Nov

60.26

57.45

63.04

72.96

86.67

70.95

66.61

83.83

Dec

61.18

58.59

64.09

72.96

86.67

70.95

66.61

87.46


SECTOR WISE FDI INFLOWS ($ Mn)

SECTOR 2010-11 (JUL-OCT)
Oil & Gas 150.2
Financial Business 16.1
Textiles 7.7
Trade 13.7
Construction 21.5
Power 42.7
Chemical 25.5
Transport 34.1
Communication 38.7
Others 117.5
Total 467.7
Privatization Proceeds 0
FDI Excl.Pvt. Proceeds 467.7
Communication including IT&Telecom

DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS

INDICATORS 2010
Total Population (mn) 173.51
Urban Population (mn) 63.05
Rural Population (mn) 110.46
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 3.6
Crude Birth Rate (Per Thousand) 28.0
Crude Death Rate (Per Thousand) 7.4
Population Growth Rate (%) 2.05
Life Expectancy (Years) 64.5
Male 63.6
Female 65.4

PAK: INTEREST RATES

MONTHS/ YEARS RATE (%)
1-Aug-07 10
31-Jan-08 10.5
23-May-08 12
30-Jul-08 13
13-Nov-08 15
15-Aug-09 13
25-Nov-09 12.5
Aug-10 13.00
0ct-10 13.50
Nov-10 14.00

PAKISTAN: COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY ELECTRICITY AND COAL

FISCAL
YEAR

ELECTRICITY (GWH)

COAL (000 METRIC TONNE)

TRAC

HH

COM

INDUS

AGRI

SL

OTHER
GOVT.

HH

POWER

BRICK KILNS

CEMENT

2005-06

13

30,720

4,730

19,803

7,949

353

4,035

..

149.3

4,221.8

3,342.8

2006-07

12

33,335

5,363

21,066

8,176

387

4,373

1.0

164.4

3,277.5

4,451.2

2007-08

8

33,704

5,572

20,729

8,472

415

4,500

1.0

162.0

3,760.7

6,186.9

2008-09

5

32,282

5,252

19,330

8,795

430

4,277

0.8

112.5

3,274.8

5,001.8

Jul-Mar
2008-09

4

23,643

3,829

14,563

6,501

307

6,767

0.8

110.0

2,911.6

1,800.0

2009-10 e

2

24,868

4,133

14,726

7,227

364

3,333

..

77.7

3,126.5

2,100.0

HH: HOUSEHOLD, COM: COMMERCIAL, AGRI: AGRICULTURAL, TRAC: TRACTION, INDUS: INDUSTRIAL, SL: STREET LIGHT
e : Electricity consumption for AJK is estimated on the basis of actual six months data

PAKISTAN: BALANCE OF TRADE (US million $)

PERIOD

EXPORT (BOP)

IMPORTS (BOP)

BOT

VALUE

CUMULATIVE

VALUE

CUMULATIVE

2005-06

16,553

--

24,994

--

-8,441

2006-07

17,278

--

26,989

--

-9,711

2007-08

20,427

--

35,397

--

-14,970

2008-09

19,121

--

31,747

--

-12,627

2009-10

19,632

--

31,054

--

-11,422

Jul-10

1,660

1,660

2,917

2,917

-1,256

Aug-10

1,810

3,470

2,921

5,838

-1,111

Sep-10

1,775

5,244

2,373

8,210

-598

Oct-10

1,835

7,080

2,591

10,802

-756


CORE INFLATION OF CPI IN 2010 (%)

MONTHS

TRIMMED

NON-FOOD & NON ENERGY

Jan

12.7

10.3

Feb

12.4

10.1

Mar

12.7

9.9

Apr

12.7

10.6

May

12.5

10.3

Jun

11.7

10.4

Jul

12.0

10.3

Aug

12.5

9.8

Sep

12.8

9.4

Oct

12.8

9.3

Nov

13.4

9.5

change over corresponding month of last year

PAKISTAN HOLIDAYS IN 2010

DATE NAME
26-Feb Eid Milad un-Nabi
23-Mar Pakistan Day
1-May Labor Day
14-Aug Independence Day
6-Sep Defence Day
10-Sep Eid-ul-Fitr Day 1
11-Sep Eid-ul-Fitr Day 2
12-Sep Eid-ul-Fitr Day 3
9-Nov Birthday of Muhammad Iqbal
17-Nov Eid ul-Azha Day 1
18-Nov Eid ul-Azha Day 2
17-Dec Youmae Ashura
25-Dec Birthday of Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah
25-Dec Christmas

IN SOUTH ASIA, THE TOP FIVE REMITTANCE RECIPIENTS IN 2010

India $55.0 billion
Bangladesh $11.1 billion
Pakistan $9.4 billion
Sri Lanka $3.6 billion
Nepal $3.5 billion

HEALTHCARE FACILITIES IN PAKISTAN

HEALTH MANPOWER 2009-10
Registered doctors 139,555
Registered dentists 9,822
Registered nurses 69,313
Population per Doctor 1183
Population per Dentist 16914
Population per Bed 1592