FLOODED AGRICULTURE

S.M. ABBAS ZAIDI, S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Aug 30 - Sep 05, 2010

PAKISTAN: ECONOMIC DISASTER

DISASTER DATE COST
Flood 2010 More than $15 bn
Earthquake 2005 5,200,000
Storm 2007 1,620,000
Flood 1992 1,000,000
Flood 2007 327,118
Drought 1999 247,000
Flood 2001 246,000
Flood 1994 92,000
Flood 2005 30,000
Storm 1999 10,936
Earthquake 1991 10,000

PAKISTAN: AFFECTED PEOPLE

DISASTER DATE AFFECTED
Flood 2010 20,000,000
Flood 2005 7,000,450
Flood 1992 6,655,450
Flood 1992 6,184,418
Earthquake 2005 5,128,000
Drought 1999 2,200,000
Storm 2007 1,650,000
Flood 1996 1,300,000
Flood 2003 1,266,223
Flood 1995 1,255,000
Flood 1988 1,000,000

PAKISTAN: KILLED PEOPLE

DISASTER DATE KILLED
Flood 2010 1600
Earthquake* 2005 73,338
Flood 1992 1,334
Flood 1998 1,000
Storm 1993 609
Flood 1995 600
Extreme temp. 1991 523
Flood 2005 520
Flood 1995 451
Flood 1994 316
Earthquake* 1991 300

PAKISTAN: HISTORICAL FLOOD DAMAGES

YEAR

VALUE OF PROPERTY DAMAGED (RS MN)`

LIVES LOST

VILLAGES AFFECTED

UNADJUSTED

ADJUSTED

1950 199.80 11,282.00 2,190 10,000
1956 155.50 7,356.00 160 11,609
1957 152.50 6,958.00 83 4,498
1973 5,137.00 118,684.00 474 9,719
1976 5,880.00 80,504.00 425 18,390
1978 4,478.00 51,489.00 393 9,199
1988 6,879.00 25,630.00 508 1,000
1992 34,751.00 69,580.00 1,008 13,208
1995 6,125.00 8,698.00 591 6,852
2001 450 00 450.00 219 50
2003 5,175.00 5,175.00 484 4,376
2004 15.00 15.00 85 47
2005 - - 59 1,931
2006 - - 541 2,477
2007 - - 586 6498
2008 - - 157 800

NATURAL DISASTERS FROM 1980 - 2008

No of events 126
No of people killed 84,561
Average killed per year 2,916
No of people affected 39,116,514
Average affected per year 1,348,845
Economic Damage (US$ X 1,000) 8,789,814
Economic Damage per year (US$ X 1,000) 303,097

PAKISTANíS WORST-EVER DISASTER

YEAR DISASTER NO, OF PEOPLE AFFECTED
2010 Flood 20 million
2010 Haiti quake 3.0 million
2005 Kashmir quake 3.0 million
2004 Asia tsunami 5.0 million

HEALTH & NUTRITION EXPENDITURES (Rs.bn)

YEARS

PUBLIC SECTOR EXPENDITURE (FEDERAL AND PROVINCIAL)

% CHANGE

HEALTH EXP. AS % OF GDP

TOTAL HEALTH EXP.

DEVELOPMENT EXP.

CURRENT EXP.

2005-06 40.00 16.00 24.00 5.3 0.51
2006-07 50.00 20.00 30.00 25 0.57
2007-08 60.00 27.22 32.67 20 0.57
2008-09 74.00 33.00 41.10 23 0.55
2009-10 79.00 38.00 41.00 7 0.54

PAKISTAN POVERTY LINE (RS)

YEAR POVERTY LINE
1998-99 673.40
2000-01 723.40
2004-05 878.64
2005-06 948.47

EXPORTS COMMODITIES

COMMODITIES

%CHANGE FOR VALUE IN MILLION RS IN JUNE, 2010 OVER

MAY, 2010 June, 2009
Knitwear 9.61 5.34
Cotton cloth -5.55 26.23
Bedwear -4.43 4.83
Readymade garments 16.31 24.18
Jewellary 3.49 150.06
Rice others 15.68 85.10
Cotton yarn 70.88 15.62
Rice basmati 20.55 -1.38
Towels -18.22 0.02
Art, silk & syn. textile 6.83 43.17

SECTOR-WISE CONTRIBUTION OF NPL (bn Rs )

SECTORS

INCREASE IN NPLS

NPL/LOAN RATIO (%)

FY08 FY09 FY08 FY09
Textile 18.7 38.1 12.6 18.8
Elec. & trans. of energy 1.7 23.5 2.8 8.2
Automobile & transport equip. 0.9 9.5 6.3 17.7
Financial -0.2 6.2 0.8 12.5
Sugar 0.1 4.1 5 10.2
Cement 3.8 3.4 8 11.4
Chemical & pharma. 1.5 1.9 8.8 8.3

PAKISTAN: SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS

INDICATORS 2008 2009 2010
Total Population (million) 166.41 169.94 173.51
Urban Population (million) 58.74 60.87 63.05
Rural Population (million) 107.67 109.07 110.46
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 3.8 3.7 3.6
Crude Birth Rate (Per Thousand) 28.7 28.4 28.0
Crude Death Rate (Per Thousand) 7.7 7.6 7.4
Population Growth Rate (Percent) 2.10 2.08 2.05
Life Expectancy (Years) 63.7 64.1 64.5
Male 63 63.3 63.6
Female 64.5 65.0 65.4

AGRICULTURE GROWTH (Percent)

YEAR

AGRI

MAJOR CROPS

MINOR CROPS

LIVESTOCK

FISHERY

FORESTRY

2003-04 2.4 1.7 3.9 2.9 2.0 -3.2
2004-05 6.5 17.7 1.5 2.3 0.6 -32.4
2005-06 6.3 -3.9 0.4 15.8 20.8 -1.1
2006-07 4.1 7.7 - 1.0 2.8 15.4 -5.1
2007-08 1.0 -6.4 10.9 4.2 9.2 -13.0
2008-09 4.0 7.3 -1.7 3.5 2.3 -3.0
2009-10 2.0 -0.2 -1.2 4.1 1.4 2.2

CORE INFLATION OF CPI: CHANGE OVER SAME MONTH OF PREVIOUS YEAR (%)

MONTHS

TRIMMED CORE INFLATION

NON-FOOD & NON ENERGY CORE INFLATION

2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10
Jul 19.7 13.9 14.7 14.0
Aug 21.0 13.1 16.4 12.6
Sep 21.2 12.3 17.3 11.9
Oct 21.7 10.6 18.3 11.0
Nov 21.3 10.5 18.9 10.6
Dec 21.6 10.4 18.8 10.7
Jan 19.6 12.7 18.9 10.3
Feb 20.8 12.4 18.9 10.1
Mar 19.3 12.7 18.5 9.9
Apr 17.6 12.7 17.7 10.6
May 16.7 12.5 16.6 10.3
Jun 15.5 11.7 15.9 10.4

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS (GDP) GROWTH RATE (%)

YEAR 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
RATE (%) 3.1 4.7 7.5 9 5.8 6.8 5.8 2.4 2.4