PAKISTANíS ECONOMY

S.M. ABBAS ZAIDI, S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Aug 16 - 22, 2010

PAKISTAN: INFLATION REPORT

PER. LAK KNU GAK Z.A.B GZUH BB NS BB NS GPM YRG
YEARS 1947-51 1951-53 1958-69 1972-77 1977-88 1988-90 1990-93 1993-96 1997-99 1999-2008 2008 TILL DATE
Flour 20 paisa 25 paisa 50 paisa Rs 1 Rs 2.50 Rs 3.25 Rs 4 Rs 6.60 Rs 8 Rs 17 Rs 29.88
Sugar 60 paisa 75 paisa Rs 1.75 Rs 6 Rs 9 Rs10 Rs 13 Rs 21 Rs 21 Rs 30 Rs 66.13
Ghee Rs 2.50 Rs 3 Rs 5 Rs 9 Rs 15 Rs 20 Rs 32 Rs 48 Rs 48 Rs 135 Rs 149.2
Dal 25 paisa 35 paisa Rs 1.50 Rs 2.50 Rs 9 Rs 10 Rs 18 Rs 18 Rs 20 Rs 42 Rs 110.27
Meat Rs 1.25 Rs 1.75 Rs 12 Rs 16 Rs 40 Rs 50 Rs 80 Rs 110 Rs 110 Rs 285 Rs 380
Petrol 15 paisa 0.35 paisa Rs 2.75 Rs 3.45 Rs 7.75 Rs 12 Rs 14 Rs 18.55 Rs 27 Rs 62 Rs 67.74
PER: PERSONALITIES, LAK: LIAQUAT ALI KHAN, KNU: KHUAJA NAZIM UDDIN, GAK: GEN AYUB KHAN, Z.A.B: ZULFIQAR ALI BHUTTO, GZUH: GEN ZIA UL HAQ, BB: BENAZIR BHUTTO, NS: NAWAZ SHARIF, GPM: PERVAIZ MUSHARRAF, YRG: YOUSUF RAZA GILANI

FDI INFLOWS IN PAKISTAN ($ MILLION)

COUNTRY 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
USA 913.1 1,309.30 869.9 488.4
UK 860.1 460.2 263.4 297
U.A.E 661.5 589.2 178.1 243.1
Japan 64.4 131.2 74.3 26.8
Hong Kong 32.6 339.8 156.1 9.9
Switzerland 174.7 169.3 227.3 172.1
Saudi Arabia 103.5 46.2 -92.3 -133.8
Germany 78.9 69.6 76.9 53
Korea(South) 1.5 1.2 2.3 2.3
Norway 25.1 274.9 101.1 0.4
China 712 13.7 -101.4 -3.6
Others 1,512.20 2,005.20 1,964.20 1,050.10
Total 5139.6 5409.8 3719.9 2205.7
Privatization Proceeds 266.4 133.2 0 0
FDI Excl. Pvt. Proceeds 4,873.20 5,276.60 3,719.90 2,205.70

AGE SPECIFIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (%)

AGE GROUP 2007-08 2008-09
10-14 8.95 9.3
15-19 8.7 9.5
20-24 6.8 7.3
25-29 4.1 4.3
30-34 2.3 2.6
35-39 1.5 1.7
40-44 1.6 1.5
45-49 2.5 2.4
50-54 3.7 4.6
55-59 6.6 6.1
60 above 12.5 12.7

WATER SECTOR PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION

PROJECTS LOCATION TOTAL APP. COST (RS. M) LIVE STORAGE
(MAF)
AREA UNDER IRRIG. (ACRES)
Gomal Zam Dam NWFP 12,829 1.14 163,086
Greater Thal Canal Punjab 30,467 - 1,534,000
Rainee Canal Sindh 18,862 - 412,000
Kachhi Canal Baloc 31,204 - 713,000
Sabakzai Dam Baloc 1,577 0.02 6,680
Raising of Mangla Dam (30 ft) AJ&K 62,553 2.9 Through out Pak
Satpara Dam Multi- purpose Skardu 2,090 0.05 15,536
Diamer Basha Dam Project N.A & NWFP Cost not Yet final 6.4 Feasibility in progress
Kurram Tangi Dam NWFP 17,205 0.83 362,380

CORE INFLATION OF CPI: Change Over Same Month of Previous Year (%)

MONTHS

TRIMMED CORE INFLATION

NON-FOOD & NON ENERGY CORE INFLATION

2008-09

2009-10

2008-09

2009-10

Jul 19.7 13.9 14.7 14.0
Aug 21.0 13.1 16.4 12.6
Sep 21.2 12.3 17.3 11.9
Oct 21.7 10.6 18.3 11.0
Nov 21.3 10.5 18.9 10.6
Dec 21.6 10.4 18.8 10.7
Jan 19.6 12.7 18.9 10.3
Feb 20.8 12.4 18.9 10.1
Mar 19.3 12.7 18.5 9.9
Apr 17.6 12.7 17.7 10.6
May 16.7 12.5 16.6 10.3
Jun 15.5 11.7 15.9 10.4

PAKISTAN: INTEREST RATES (%)

MONTHS/ YEARS RATE
18-Nov-02 7.5
11-Apr-05 9
29-Jul-06 9.5
1-Aug-07 10
31-Jan-08 10.5
23-May-08 12
30-Jul-08 13
13-Nov-08 15
15-Aug-09 13
25-Nov-09 12.5
Aug-10 13.00

FBR TAX COLLECTION IN PAKISTAN DURING 2009-10 (Mn Rs)

PERIOD

DIRECT TAXES

INDIRECT TAXES

TOTAL TAX COLLECTION

SALES

EXCISE

CUSTOMS

TOTAL

July 17,470 38,431 9,313 9,466 57,210 74,680
Aug 26,421 39,044 9,590 11,133 59,767 86,188
Sep 41,283 39,582 9,487 12,465 61,534 102,817
Oct 43,641 42,129 9,585 12,601 64,315 107,956
Nov 26,896 39,851 10,023 11,090 60,964 87,860
Dec 55,518 43,834 8,658 14,493 66,985 122,503
Jan 45,677 44,988 9,076 12,748 66,812 112,489
Feb 35,230 41,165 8,944 11,404 61,513 96,743
Mar 50,039 42,134 9,731 16,285 68,150 118,189
Apr 45,965 46,159 10,775 14,049 70,983 116,948
May 36,679 47,916 11,659 14,008 73,583 110,262

SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE GDP GROWTH (%)

SECTOR 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Agriculture 1.4 0.9 0.24 1.00
Industry 1.1 2.3 0.45 -0.92
Manufacturing 1.6 1.6 0.91 -0.64
services 3.3 3.6 3.41 1.92

US DOLLAR RATES  PER PAK RUPEE

YEARS LEADARS US $
1972 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 4.7
1977 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 9.9
1983 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 13.1
1987 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 17.7
1990 Benazir Bhutto Rs 24
1991 Nawaz Sharif Rs 25
1994 Benazir Bhutto Rs 30.6
1996 Benazir Bhutto Rs 40.3
1997-99 Nawaz Sharif Rs 53
1999-08 Pervaiz Musharraf Rs 62
2010 Yousaf Raza Gilani Rs 85.76

PAKISTAN: EDUCATION LEVELS

LEVELS PER CENT
No Formal Education 42%
Below Matric 38%
Matric but less than Intermediate 11%
Intermediate but less than degree 5%
Degree and above 4%

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS (GDP) GROWTH RATE (%)

YEAR 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
RATE (%) 3.1 4.7 7.5 9 5.8 6.8 5.8 2.4 2.4