FINANCIAL YEAR 2011- HOPES & FEARS

S.M. ABBAS ZAIDI, S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
Research Analyst
, PAGE
July 05 - 11, 2010

SOCIAL SECTOR AND POVERTY RELATED EXPENDITURES (Rs. In Billion)

SECTORS

ACTUAL ACTUAL
(JUL - MAR)
PROJEC-TED
04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 08/09 09/10 09/10
I. Market Access and Community Services 41.7 63.6 76.6 104.5 121.8 60 51.7 70.2
i. Roads, Highways & Bridges 35.2 53.2 60 85 99.6 48.6 38.8 59.2
ii. Water Supply & Sanitation/Environment 6.5 10.3 16.6 19.5 22.2 11.4 12.9 11.0
II. Human Development 152.9 191.1 222.3 256.8 329.4 200.5 234.6 327.2
iii. Education 116.9 141.7 162.1 187.7 240.4 153.6 175.3 260.6
iv. Health 31.4 39.2 53.2 62.4 83.7 43.1 55.0 62.1
v. Population Planning 4.6 10.2 7 6.7 5.3 3.8 4.3 4.5
III. Rural Development 59.7 78.5 101.8 151.5 136 82.1 94 140.5
vi. Agriculture 37.9 59.8 74.8 122.9 88.9 49.3 53.5 109.6
vii. Land Reclamation 2.1 2.7 2.3 3.1 2.7 1.5 1.3 3.2
viii. Rural Development 15.4 15 22.2 22.8 16.4 6.3 10.7 11.3
ix. Peoples Works Prog 4.4 1 2.5 2.7 28 25 28.5 16,418
IV. Safety Nets 11.4 36.1 18.8 435.2 276.1 203.5 166.3 271.6
x. Subsidies 5.4 6 5.5 398.5 220.6 175.8 128.4 178.3
xi. Social Security & Welfare 2 7.6 4.5 22.5 29.1 17.3 27.1 73.5
xii. Food Support Programme 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.3 12.4 3.5 0 11.8
xiii. Peoples Works Prog‐I 0.08 0 0.02 1.9 3.3 1.7 2.5 2.9
xiv. Natural Calamities & Disasters 0.9 19.1 5 7.4 10 4.9 7.5 3.5
xv. Low Cost Housing 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.77 1.5
V. Governance 50.5 6.8 7.2 94 113.9 71.9 104.7 50.5
xvi. Law & Order 47.4 1.1 2.1 88 104.7 66 97.6 43.7
xvii. Justice Administration 3.1 5.6 5.1 6 9.2 5.9 7.1 6.8
Total 316.2 376.1 426.7 1042 977.2 618 651.2 860.0
As % of GDP 4.81 4.93 4.89 9.7 7.46 5.7 4.3 6.01

PAKISTANíS ECONOMIC INDICATORS

INDICATORS FY09 FY10
ANNUAL PLAN TARGETS PROJECTIONS
GDP (%) 2.0 3.3 2.5-3.5
Average CPI Inflation (%) 20.8 9.0 10.0 - 12.0
PERCENT OF GDP
Fiscal deficit 5.2 4.9 4.7-5.2
Current account deficit 5.3 5.3 4.7-5.2


MINIMUM WAGES PER MONTH IN PAK

YEARS

PAK RUPEES

1992

1500

1996

1650

1998

1950

2001

2500

2003

3000

2004

4000

2008

6000

2010

7000


FBR TAX COLLECTION IN PAKISTAN (Mn Rs)
(Actual at end month)

PERIOD

DIRECT TAXES

INDIRECT TAXES

TOTAL TAX COLLECTION

SALES

EXCISE

CUSTOMS

TOTAL

July-09 17,470 38,431 9,313 9,466 57,210 74,680
August-09 26,421 39,044 9,590 11,133 59,767 86,188
September-09 41,283 39,582 9,487 12,465 61,534 102,817
October-09 43,641 42,129 9,585 12,601 64,315 107,956
November-09 26,896 39,851 10,023 11,090 60,964 87,860
December-09 55,518 43,834 8,658 14,493 66,985 122,503
January-10 45,677 44,988 9,076 12,748 66,812 112,489
February-10 35,230 41,165 8,944 11,404 61,513 96,743
March-10 50,039 42,134 9,731 16,285 68,150 118,189
April-10 45,965 46,159 10,775 14,049 70,983 116,948


LIQUID FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
(MILLION US$)

END PERIOD

NET RESERVES WITH SBP

NET RESERVES WITH BANKS

TOTAL LIQUID FX RESERVES

1998-99 1,672.7 616.5 2,289.2
1999-00 997.0 976.6 1,973.6
2000-01 1,688.9 1,542.6 3,231.5
2001-02 4,337.4 2,098.2 6,435.6
2002-03 9,529.1 1,240.6 10,769.7
2003-04 10,563.9 1,825.4 12,389.3
2004-05 9,804.7 2,792.9 12,597.6
2005-06 10,765.2 2,357.2 13,122.4
2006-07 13,345.4 2,301.8 15,647.2
2007-08 8,577.0 2,821.7 11,398.7
2008-09 9,117.9 3,307.3 12,425.2

INTEREST RATES IN PAK (%)

MONTHS/ YEARS RATE
18-Nov-02 7.5
11-Apr-05 9
29-Jul-06 9.5
1-Aug-07 10
31-Jan-08 10.5
23-May-08 12
30-Jul-08 13
13-Nov-08 15
15-Aug-09 13
25-Nov-09 12.5


BALANCE OF TRADE IN 2009-10 (MN US $)

PERIOD EXPORTS IMPORTS BOT
Jun P 1,807 2,793 -986
Jul P 1,554 2,811 -1,257
Aug P 1,467 2,171 -704
Sep P 1,599 2,447 -848
Oct P 1,640 2,749 -1,109
Nov P 1,417 2,198 -781
Dec P 1,626 2,720 -1,093
Jan (2010) 1,626 2,525 -899
Feb(2010) 1,544 2,333 -789
Mar 1,854 2,508 -654
Apr 1,815 2,892 -1,077
May 1,717 2,593 -876