ENERGY CRISIS

S.M. ABBAS ZAIDI, S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
Research Analyst
, PAGE
May 24 - 30, 2010

PRICES OF OIL PRODUCTS

PRODUCTS JP-1 JP-4 JP-8 PREMIUM MOTOR GASOLINE HOBC KEROSENE OIL LIGHT DIESEL OIL INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY OIL PRICES PER BARREL ($)
Mar-2009 31.22 32.58 37.07 57.66 72.08 51.87 48 45.78
Apr-2009 31.83 33.5 37.67 57.66 72.08 51.87 48 50.21
May-2009 36.17 37.06 42 56.21 70.28 51.87 48 57.00
June-2009 38.29 39.15 44.08 56.21 70.28 51.87 48 68.36
July-2009 45.82 43.05 48.13 62.13 78.78 59.35 54.94 64.59
Aug-2009 44.38 41.96 46.86 60.46 77.01 57.91 53.27 71.35
Sep-2009 48.12 46.06 50.56 65.26 80.39 60.60 56.96 67.17
Oct-2009 46.03 44.24 48.60 61.63 75.59 57.87 54.97 72.67
Nov-2009 48.37 45.68 50.91 61.63 75.59 57.87 54.97 76.29
Dec-2009 52.26 50.02 54.79 66.00 80.52 62.63 60.22 74.01
Jan-2010 50.70 49.61 53.39 65.11 79.43 60.75 58.10 76.01
Feb-2010 53.41 52.15 56.05 71.21 86.84 64.06 61.07 71.02
Mar-2010 51.25 49.69 53.96 70.57 86.06 61.50 59.47 77.08
April-2010 54.54 53.10 57.22 73.14 87.56 64.81 62.20 82.33
May-2010 58.46 55.54 61.24 75.08 89.19 68.89 65.76 80.91

CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS (000 TONES) (PERCENTAGE CHANGE)
YEAR HH CH.% IND CH.% AGRI CH.% TRAN CH.% POWER CH.% OTHER
GOVT.
CH.% TOTAL
2003-04 231 -18.4 1,493 -6.9 184 -6.6 8,464 4.7 2,740 -54.5 309 16.2 13,421
2004-05 193 -16.5 1,542 3.3 142 -22.8 9,025 6.6 3,452 26.0 317 2.6 14,671
2005-06 129 -33.2 1,682 9.1 82 -42.3 8,157 -9.6 4,219 22.2 359 13.2 14,627
2006-07 106 -17.8 1,596 -5.1 97 18.3 7,982 -2.1 6,741 59.8 . -9.5 16,847
2007-08 121 14.1 1,071 -32.9 109 12.7 9,384 17.6 7,084 5.1 311 -4.5 18,080
July-March.
2007-08 82 . 861 . 87 . 6816 . 5255 . 243 . 13342
2008-09 75 -8 718 -17 50 -42 6307 -7 5497 5 245 1 12892
HH: HOUSEHOLD, IND: INDUSTRY, AGRI: AGRICULTURE, TRAN.: TRANSPORT, CH.%: CHANGE %

BALANCE OF TRADE (MILLION US $)

PERIOD EXPORTS GROWTH RATE IMPORTS GROWTH RATE BALANCE OF TRADE
2002-03 10,889 19.1 11,333 20.1 -444
2003-04 12,396 13.8 13,604 20.0 -1,208
2004-05 14,482 16.8 18,996 39.6 -4,514
2005-06 16,553 14.3 24,994 31.6 -8,441
2006-07 17,278 4.4 26,989 8.0 -9,711
2007-08 20,427 18.2 35,397 31.2 -14,970
2008-09 R 19,121 -6.4 31,747 -10.3 -12,627
2009-10 (July-Mar) 14,389 26.9 22,413 6.1 -534

TREND IN POVERTY INDICATORS (%)

YEAR URBAN RURAL PAKISTAN
1998-99 20.9 34.7 30.6
2000-01 22.7 39.3 34.5
2004-05 14.9 28.1 23.9
2005-06 13.1 27.0 22.3

GDP GROWTH RATE (%)

YEAR 2001-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 2009-10
RATE (%) 3.1 4.7 7.5 9 5.8 6.8 5.8 2.4 2.5 to 3.3 (Proj)

COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ( JUL-MAR)

  ELECTRICITY (GWH) COAL (000 METRIC TONNE)
YEAR TRA. HH COM IND AGRI SL OTHER GOVT. HH POWER BL CEMENT
2007-08 7 25168 4101 15713 6477 321 3421 1 132.6 3325.4 3100
2008-09 4 23643 3829 14563 6501 307 6767 0.8 110 2911.6 1,800.0

HH: HOUSE HOLD, COM: COMMERCIAL, IND: INDUSTRIAL, AGRI: Agriculture, SL: STREETLIGHT, BL: BRICKKILNS, TRA: TRACTION,


ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY ECONOMIC GROUPS( JUL-MAR) (% SHARE)

YEAR DOM COM IND AGRI PL BS TRA. SUPPLY TO KESC
2007-08 43 6.5 26.1 12.7 0.5 5.1 0.02 6
2008-09 42.2 6.4 25.2 13.3 0.5 4.9 0.01 7.5
DOM: DOMESTIC, COM: COMMERCIAL, IND: INDUSTRIAL, AGRI: AGRICULTURE, PL: PUBLIC LIGHTING, BS: BULK SUPPLY, TRA: TRACTION,

INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY (MW)

COMPANY YEAR2007-08 YEAR 2008-09
WAPDA 11,654 11,454
Hydel 6,474 6,555
Thermal 5,180 4,899
IPPs 5,760 5,954
Nuclear 462 462
KESC 1,690 1,884.0
Total 19,566 19,754

ANNUAL EXPECTED CAPACITY (IPPs)

YEAR (MW)
2009 2543
2010 1201
2011 1268
2012 482
2013 2651
Total 8145

POWER DEMAND POSITION IN PAKISTAN (MW)

YEAR FIRM SUPPLY PEAK DEMAND SURPLUS/ (DEFICIT)
2006 15,072 15,483 (411)
2007 15,091 16,548 (1,457)
2008 15,055 17,689 (2,634)
2009 15,055 19,080 (4,025)
2010 15,055 20,584 (5,529)

COMPOSITION OF ENERGY MIX (%)

INDICATORS

2008-09

Hydro Electricity

10.9

LPG

0.7

Oil

30.5

Coal

9.2

Natural Gas

47.5

Nuclear

1.3


PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY AND PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY

YEAR

ENERGY SUPPLY

PER CAPITA

MN TOE

CHANGE (%)

AVAILABILITY (TOE)

CHANGE (%)

2006-07 60.62 4.33 0.38 2.61
2007-08 62.92 3.78 0.39 2.86
JUL-MAR
2007-08 49.9 - 0.31 -
2008-09 E 47.1 -5.61 0.29 -6.45
TOE- Tons of Oil Equivalent

DAMS IN PAKISTAN

Diamer-Bhasha Dam Gomal Zam Dam Namal Dam
Hub Dam Karoonjhar Dam Shadikor Dam
Kalabagh Dam Mangla Dam Mirani Dam
Shakidor Dam Tarbela Dam Warsak Dam
Rawal Dam Sabak Zai Dam Windar Dam
Munda Dam Akhori Dam .

ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY WAPDA (JULY-MAR) (GWH)
YEAR HYDRO SHARE (%) THERMAL SHARE (%)
2007-08 21,606 33.5 42,963 66.5
2008-09 20,665 33.7 40,653 66.3