INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION

S.M. ABBAS ZAIDI, S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Feb
15 - 21, 2010

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX BY GROUPS OF COMMODITIES AND SERVICES (2000-01= 100)

GROUPS

WEIGHT
IN %

IN D I C E S

CHANGE DEC, 09 OVER….

NOV, 09

Dec, 08

Nov, 09

Dec, 08

DEC, 09

NOV, 09

DEC, 08

….IN %

IN PERCENTAGE POINTS (IMPACT)

General 100.00 210.99 212.02 190.90 -0.49 10.52 -0.49 10.52
Food & beverages 40.34 238.16 242.40 214.71 -1.75 10.92 -0.96 4.44
Non-perishable food items 35.20 239.46 238.96 215.62 0.21 11.06 0.11 3.92
Perishable food items 5.14 229.27 265.98 208.47 -13.80 9.98 -1.07 0.52
Apparel, textile & footwear 6.10 160.70 159.95 153.35 0.47 4.79 0.04 0.29
House rent 23.43 205.61 203.90 179.99 0.84 14.23 0.27 3.36
Fuel & lighting 7.29 215.18 213.97 202.54 0.57 6.24 0.06 0.46
Household, furniture & equipment etc. 3.29 169.01 168.10 159.97 0.54 5.65 0.02 0.19
Transport & communication 7.32 197.26 197.68 185.00 -0.21 6.63 -0.02 0.49
Recreation & entertainment 0.83 122.62 122.61 119.61 0.01 2.52 0.00 0.02
Education 3.45 185.19 183.65 163.18 0.84 13.49 0.04 0.47
Cleaning, laundry & personal appearance 5.88 181.14 179.64 162.03 0.84 11.79 0.07 0.70
Medicare 2.07 153.98 153.91 146.53 0.05 5.08 0.00 0.11

INTEREST RATES (%)

MONTHS/ YEARS RATE
18-Nov-02 7.5
11-Apr-05 9
29-Jul-06 9.5
1-Aug-07 10
31-Jan-08 10.5
23-May-08 12
30-Jul-08 13
13-Nov-08 15
15-Aug-09 13
25-Nov-09 12.5

LIQUID FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES (MILLION US$)

END PERIOD NET RESERVES WITH SBP NET RESERVES WITH BANKS TOTAL LIQUID FX RESERVES
1998-99 1,672.7 616.5 2,289.2
1999-00 997.0 976.6 1,973.6
2000-01 1,688.9 1,542.6 3,231.5
2001-02 4,337.4 2,098.2 6,435.6
2002-03 9,529.1 1,240.6 10,769.7
2003-04 10,563.9 1,825.4 12,389.3
2004-05 9,804.7 2,792.9 12,597.6
2005-06 10,765.2 2,357.2 13,122.4
2006-07 13,345.4 2,301.8 15,647.2
2007-08 8,577.0 2,821.7 11,398.7
2008-09 9,117.9 3,307.3 12,425.2
2009-10 10,719.4 3,797.9 14,517.3

CORE INFLATION OF CPI

MONTHS TRIMMED CORE
INFLATION (%)
NON-FOOD & NON-ENERGY
CORE INFLATION (%)
2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10
Jun 17.2 15.5 13.0 15.9
Jul 19.7 13.9 14.7 14.0
Aug 21.0 13.1 16.4 12.6
Sep 21.2 12.3 17.3 11.9
Oct 21.7 10.6 18.3 11.0
Nov 21.3 10.5 18.9 10.6
Dec 21.6 10.4 18.8 10.7

REGIONAL INTEREST RATES DURING 2010 (%)

COUNTRY PREVIOUS CURRENT
Korea 3.00 2.00
Japan 0.3 0.1
Us 1.00 0.25
Taiwan 1.50 1.25
Uk 1.00 0.5
India 5.00 4.75
China 5.58 5.31
Turkey 6.75 6.50
Pakistan 13.00 12.5

CONSUMER FINANCING (Rs.billion)

CONSUMER FINANCING

CHANGE DURING JUL-MAR
FY 08 FY09
1.House Building 10.2 -3.3
2.Transport i.e. purchase of cars etc 3.4 -19.6
3.Credit cards 1.8 -6.8
4.Consumer Durables 0.7 -0.2
5.Personal Loans 0.4 -25.3
6.Others 0.1 0.3
Total 16.6 -54.9

US $ RATES  PER PAK RUPEE
YEARS LEADERS US $
1972 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 4.7
1977 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 9.9
1983 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 13.1
1987 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 17.7
1990 Benazir Bhutto Rs 24
1991 Nawaz Sharif Rs 25
1994 Benazir Bhutto Rs 30.6
1996 Benazir Bhutto Rs 40.3
1997-99 Nawaz Sharif Rs 53
1999-08 Pervaiz Musharraf Rs 62
2009 Yousaf Raza Gilani Rs 85.00

AVERAGE JULY –DEC OVER SAME PERIOD OF PREVIOUS YEAR CHANGE OF INDICES IN %

INDEX 2009-2010 2008-2009 2007-2008
CPI 10.31 24.43 8.01
SPI 9.76 30.96 11.03
WPI 5.25 27.98 10.26

INFLATION REPORT OF GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN

Per. LAK KNU GAK ZAB GZUH BB NS BB NS PM YRG
Years 1947-51 1951-53 1958-69 1972-77 1977-88 1988-90 1990-93 1993-96 1997-99 1999-2008 2008 till date
Flour (kg) 20 paisa 25 paisa 50 paisa Rs 1 Rs 2.50 Rs 3.25 Rs 4 Rs 6.60 Rs 8 Rs 17 Rs 30.13
Sugar (kg) 60 paisa 75 paisa Rs 1.75 Rs 6 Rs 9 Rs10 Rs 13 Rs 21 Rs 21 Rs 30 Rs 69.07
Ghee (kg) Rs 2.50 Rs 3 Rs 5 Rs 9 Rs 15 Rs 20 Rs 32 Rs 48 Rs 48 Rs 135 Rs 114.48
Dal (kg) 25 paisa 35 paisa Rs 1.50 Rs 2.50 Rs 9 Rs 10 Rs 18 Rs 18 Rs 20 Rs 42 Rs 87.56
Meat (kg) Rs 1.25 Rs 1.75 Rs 12 Rs 16 Rs 40 Rs 50 Rs 80 Rs 110 Rs 110 Rs 285 Rs 314.47
Petrol (liter) 15 paisa 0.35 paisa Rs 2.75 Rs 3.45 Rs 7.75 Rs 12 Rs 14 Rs 18.55 Rs 27 Rs 62 Rs 72.08
PER: Personalities, LAK: Liaqat Ali Khan, KNU: Khuaja Nazim uddin, GAK: Gen Ayub Khan, ZAB: Z.A Bhutto, GZUH: Gen Zia ul haq, BB: Benazir Bhutto, NS: Nawaz Sharif, PM: Pervaiz Musharraf, YRG: Yousuf Raza Gilani


PRICES OF OIL PRODUCTS IN PAKISTAN

PRODUCTS JP-1 JP-4 JP-8 PREMIUM MOTOR GASOLINE HOBC KEROSENE OIL LIGHT DIESEL OIL INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY OIL PRICES PER BARREL ($)
Mar-2009 31.22 32.58 37.07 57.66 72.08 51.87 48 45.78
Apr-2009 31.83 33.5 37.67 57.66 72.08 51.87 48 50.21
May.-2009 36.17 37.06 42 56.21 70.28 51.87 48 57.00
June -2009 38.29 39.15 44.08 56.21 70.28 51.87 48 68.36
July -2009 45.82 43.05 48.13 62.13 78.78 59.35 54.94 64.59
Aug-2009 44.38 41.96 46.86 60.46 77.01 57.91 53.27 71.35
Sep-2009 48.12 46.06 50.56 65.26 80.39 60.60 56.96 67.17
Oct-2009 46.03 44.24 48.60 61.63 75.59 57.87 54.97 72.67
Nov-2009 48.37 45.68 50.91 61.63 75.59 57.87 54.97 76.29
Dec -2009 52.26 50.02 54.79 66.00 80.52 62.63 60.22 74.01
Jan-2010 50.70 49.61 53.39 65.11 79.43 60.75 58.10 76.01
Feb-2010 53.41 52.15 56.05 71.21 86.84 64.06 61.07 72.33