YEAR END REVIEW

S.M. ABBAS ZAIDI, S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Dec 28, 2009 - Jan 03, 2010

INFLATION REPORT OF GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN

Personalities Liaqat Ali Khan Khuaja Nazim uddin Gen Ayub Khan Z.A Bhutto Gen Zia
ul haq
Benazir Bhutto Nawaz Sharif Benazir Bhutto Nawaz Sharif Pervaiz Musharraf Yousuf Raza Gilani
Years 1947-51 1951-53 1958-69 1972-77 1977-88 1988-90 1990-93 1993-96 1997-99 1999-2008 2008 till date
Flour 20 paisa 25 paisa 50 paisa Rs 1 Rs 2.50 Rs 3.25 Rs 4 Rs 6.60 Rs 8 Rs 17 Rs 28.94
Sugar 60 paisa 75 paisa Rs 1.75 Rs 6 Rs 9 Rs10 Rs 13 Rs 21 Rs 21 Rs 30 Rs 53.85
Ghee Rs 2.50 Rs 3 Rs 5 Rs 9 Rs 15 Rs 20 Rs 32 Rs 48 Rs 48 Rs 135 Rs 141.2
Dal 25 paisa 35 paisa Rs 1.50 Rs 2.50 Rs 9 Rs 10 Rs 18 Rs 18 Rs 20 Rs 42 Rs 76.37
Meat Rs 1.25 Rs 1.75 Rs 12 Rs 16 Rs 40 Rs 50 Rs 80 Rs 110 Rs 110 Rs 285 Rs 301.86
Petrol 15 paisa 0.35 paisa Rs 2.75 Rs 3.45 Rs 7.75 Rs 12 Rs 14 Rs 18.55 Rs 27 Rs 62 Rs 66.00

BUDGET AT A GLANCE 2009-10 (Rs. bn)

RECEIPTS . EXPENDITURE .
(a) Tax Revenue* 1513.1 (A) CURRENT 1699.2
(b) Non-Tax Revenue 513.6 General Public Service 1189.1
Gross Revenue Receipts 2026.7 Defence Affairs & Services 342.9
Less Provincial Share 655.2 Public Order Safety Affairs 34.6
I. Net Revenue Receipts 1371.5 Economic Affairs 84.9
II. Net Capital Receipts 190.5 Environment Protection 0.4
III. External Receipts 510.4 Housing and Community 1.5
IV. Self-Financing of PSDP by Provinces 173 Health Affairs and Services 6.5
V. Change in Provincial Cash Balance 72.9 Recreational, Culture Services 3.7
    Education Affairs Service 31.6
VI. Privatisation Proceeds 19.4 Social Protection 3.9
    (B) DEVELOPMENT 783.1
    PSDP 646
VII. Bank Borrowing 144.6 Federal Government 446
    Provincial Government 200
    Est Operational Shortfall -- 20.0
    Other Dev. Expenditure 157.1
TOTAL RESOURCES 2482.3 TOTAL EXPENDITURE 2482.3
*Out of which CBR collection has been estimated at Rs1378 billion.

FDI IN PAKISTAN ($ mn )

YEARS FDI
2001-02 484.7
2002-03 798
2003-04 979.9
2004-05 1524
2005-06 3521
2006-07 5139.6
2007-08 5152.8
2008-09 3,721.8

GDP GROWTH RATE (%)
YEAR RATE (%)
2001-02 3.1
2002-03 4.7
2003-04 7.5
2004-05 9
2005-06 5.8
2006-07 6.8
2007-08 5.8
2008-09 2.7
2009-10 2.5 to 3.5 (PROJECTION)

POWER DEMAND POSITION IN PAKISTAN (MW)
YEAR FIRM SUPPLY PEAK DEMAND SURPLUS/ (DEFICIT)
2006 15,072 15,483 (411)
2007 15,091 16,548 (1,457)
2008 15,055 17,689 (2,634)
2009 15,055 19,080 (4,025)
2010 15,055 20,584 (5,529)

COMPOSITION OF ENERGY MIX (%)

INDICATORS 2008-09
Hydro Electricity 10.9
LPG 0.7
Oil 30.5
Coal 9.2
Natural Gas 47.5
Nuclear 1.3

PERFORMANCE OF SELECTED INDUSTRIES IN PAKISTAN

INDUSTRY NO OF UNITS INSTALLED CAPACITY .
(Nos/MTons) 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Textile COTTON YARN 368 9.8 Mln. Spindles 1.9 M
Kgs.
2.2 M
Kgs.
2.5 M Kgs. 2.8 M Kgs. 2.9 M
Kgs.
2.2 M
Kgs.
COTTON CLOTH 151,560 5,998 7,117 8,000 8.66 9 .
Rotors Mn.Sq.
Mtr.
Mn.Sq.
Mtr.
Mn.Sq.
Mtr
Mn.Sq.
Mtr
Mn.Sq.
Mtr.
Mn.Sq.
Mtr.
Sugar 81 5.5 4.02 3.12 2.96 3.52 4.73 3.21
Fertilizer 13 6 5.67 5.99 6.24 6.04 6.23 4.34
Cement 31 16.9 12.86 16.09 18.48 22.73 26.75 20.28
Vegetable Ghee 87 2.7 0.89 1.05 1.05 NA* NA* 0.79
Oil Refineries 6 12.57 11.3 12.9 NA* NA* NA* NA*
Jute Goods 11 - - - - 0.11 0.12 0.1

KARACHI STOCK EXCHANGE DURING 2009

DATE 30 SHARE INDEX 100 SHARE INDEX MARKET CAP (BN)
Jan 5,341.22 5,793.57 1,842.65
Feb 5,634.78 5,597.44 1,764.67
Mar 6,001.36, 5,748.10 1,782.36
Apr 8,064.16 7,432.88 2,235.95
Apr 8.238.26 7,617.96 2,290.92
May 7,602.13 7,129.51 2,123.66
Jun 7,314.11 6,894.62 2,045.70
Jul 7,993.29 7,471.28 2,205.35
Aug 8,343.20 7,872.23 2,323.56
Sep 9,651.15 9,002.68 2,622.53
Oct 10.170.68 9,455.15 2,744.37
Nov 9,396.44 8,936.48 2,588.96
Dec 9,464.13 9,009.13 2,609.08
Dec 9,652.90 9,183.73 2,646.90

CORE INFLATION OF CPI

MONTHS TRIMMED CORE
INFLATION (%)
NON-FOOD & NON-ENERGY
CORE INFLATION (%)
2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10
Jan 9.7 19.6 7.8 18.9
Feb 10.0 20.8 8.1 18.9
Mar 11.3 19.3 9.3 18.5
Apr 14.1 17.6 10.8 17.7
May 15.1 16.7 12.3 16.6
Jun 17.2 15.5 13.0 15.9
Jul 19.7 13.9 14.7 14.0
Aug 21.0 13.1 16.4 12.6
Sep 21.2 12.3 17.3 11.9
Oct 21.7 10.6 18.3 11.0
Nov 21.3 10.5 18.9 10.6

US $ RATES  PER PAK RUPEE

YEARS LEADERS US $
1972 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 4.7
1977 Z.A. Bhutto Rs 9.9
1983 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 13.1
1987 Gen Ziaulhaq Rs 17.7
1990 Benazir Bhutto Rs 24
1991 Nawaz Sharif Rs 25
1994 Benazir Bhutto Rs 30.6
1996 Benazir Bhutto Rs 40.3
1997-99 Nawaz Sharif Rs 53
1999-08 Pervaiz Musharraf Rs 62
2009 Yousaf Raza Gilani Rs 84.3

INTEREST RATES IN PAK (%)
MONTHS/ YEARS RATE
18-Nov-02 7.5
11-Apr-05 9
29-Jul-06 9.5
1-Aug-07 10
31-Jan-08 10.5
23-May-08 12
30-Jul-08 13
13-Nov-08 15
15-Aug-09 13
25-Nov-09 12.5

BALANCE OF TRADE IN 2009 (MN US $)
PERIOD EXPORTS IMPORTS BOT
Jan P 1,279 2,140 -861
Feb P 1,511 1,877 -367
Mar P 1,450 2,217 -766
Apr P 1,487 2,349 -862
May P 1,489 2,028 -539
Jun P 1,807 2,936 -1,129
Jul P 1,554 2,811 -1,257
Aug P 1,467 2,170 -704
Sep P 1,599 2,447 -848
Oct P 1,639 2,733 -1,094
Nov P 1,541 2,528 -986.5
P: Provisional ,BOT: Balance of Trade