GDP & INTEREST RATES

S.M. ABBAS ZAIDI, S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Nov 23 - 29, 2009

REAL GDP (SECTOR WISE DATA) (RS. IN MN)

. 2002-03 2003-04R 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 R 2008-09 P
A. Commodity Producing Sector 1,868,125 2,041,661 2,234,671 2,348,925 2,504,569 2,540,080 2,544,339
I. Agriculture 941,942 964,853 1,027,403 1,092,098 1,137,037 1,149,270 1,203,308
Crops 440,951 451,178 511,051 496,462 523,860 512,135 545,773
Major Crops 321,505 327,057 385,058 370,005 398,617 373,275 401,890
Minor Crops 119,446 124,121 125,993 126,457 125,243 138,860 143,883
Livestock 460,495 473,771 484,876 561,500 577,400 601,530 623,759
Fishing 13,346 13,611 13,691 16,540 19,080 20,834 21,319
Forestry 27,150 26,293 17,785 17,596 16,697 14,771 12,457
II. Industry 926,183 1,076,808 1,207,268 1,256,827 1,367,532 1,390,810 1,341,031
Manufacturing 638,044 727,439 840,243 912,953 988,301 1,035,797 1,001,387
Large-scale 416,955 492,632 590,759 639,585 695,489 723,322 667,825
Small-scale 221,089 234,807 249,484 273,368 292,812 312,475 333,562
Mining and Quarrying 96,418 111,473 122,621 128,288 132,254 138,047 139,856
Construction 92,789 82,818 98,190 108,195 134,536 129,243 115,297
Electricity & Gas Distribution 98,932 155,078 146,214 107,391 112,441 87,723 84,491
B. Services Sector 2,053,979 2,173,947 2,358,559 2,511,551 2,687,140 2,864,406 2,968,106
Wholesale & Retail Trade 707,665 766,693 858,695 838,426 887,294 934,441 963,722
Transport Storage & Communication 445,552 461,276 477,171 496,073 519,486 549,326 565,056
Finance and Insurance 130,081 141,768 185,501 265,056 304,514 343,867 339,787
Ownership of Dwellings 122,466 126,764 131,214 135,820 140,587 145,521 150,628
Public Administration & Defence 259,148 267,321 268,826 295,959 316,915 320,825 336,823
Community, Social & Personal Services 389,067 410,125 437,152 480,217 518,344 570,426 612,090
at Factor Cost (A+B) 3,922,104 4,215,608 4,593,230 4,860,476 5,191,709 5,404,486 5,512,445
R = Revised, P = Provisional


COUNTRIES BY GDP (PPP) IN 2008

RANK COUNTRY GDP (PPP) $M
- World 69,490,000
- EU 14,910,000
1 US 14,260,000
2 China 7,973,000
3 Japan 4,329,000
4 India 3,297,000
5 Germany 2,918,000
7 UK 2,226,000
9 Brazil 1,993,000
17 Iran 841,700
27 Pakistan 427,300
30 Malaysia 384,300


GDP (REAL) GROWTH RATE IN 2008

RANK COUNTRY RATE
1 Bhutan 21.4
16 China 9
23 Iraq 7.8
27 UAE 7.4
28 India 7.4
47 Iran 6.5
62 Sri Lanka 6
67 Maldives 5.7
81 Brazil 5.1
91 Nepal 4.7
115 Afghanistan 3.4
140 Pakistan 2.7

GDP GROWTH RATE (%)

YEAR RATE (%)
2001-02 3.1
2002-03 4.7
2003-04 7.5
2004-05 9
2005-06 5.8
2006-07 6.8
2007-08 5.8
2008-09 2.7
2009-10 2.5 to 3.5 (PROJECTION)


REGIONAL INTEREST RATES (%)

COUNTRIES END07 END08 2009
Korea 5.00 3.00 2.00
Thailand 3.25 2.75 2.00
Philippines 5.25 5.5 -
Taiwan 3.375 2.0 1.25
Indonesia 8.00 9.25 -
India 7.75 6.5 4.75
China 7.47 5.31 5.31
Turkey 15.75 15.00 -
Pakistan 10.00 15:00 13.00


STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES (%)

MONTHS/ YEAR RATE
5-Jan-00 11.0
19-Sep-00 12.0
5-Oct-00 13.0
7-Jun-01 14.0
19-Jul-01 13.0
17-Aug-01 12.0
20-Oct-01 10.0
23-Jan-02 9.0
18-Nov-02 7.5
11-Apr-05 9.0
29-Jul-06 9.5
1-Aug-07 10.0
31-Jan-08 10.5
23-May-08 12.0
30-Jul-08 13.0
13-Nov-2008 15.0
15-Aug till date 13.00


INTEREST RATE SPREAD (%)

YEARS AVERAGE YIELD
ON EARNING ASSETS
AVERAGE COST OF
INTEREST LIABILITIES
SPREAD
. (a) (b) (a-b)
CY98 14.0 8.5 5.4
CY99 12.7 7.7 5.0
CY00 11.3 6.6 4.7
CY01 11.2 6.1 5.1
CY02 8.7 4.3 4.5
CY03 5.7 2.0 3.8
CY04 5.0 1.5 3.5
CY05 7.5 2.6 5.0
CY06 9.1 3.9 5.2


GDP IN PAKISTAN (US Bn $)

YEAR (US Bn $)
1960 3.71
1970 10
1980 23.7
1990 40.00
1995 60.6
2000 74.00
2005 110
2008 168


% CHANGE IN GDP GROWTH

COUNTRY 2009 2010 2011
USA -2.5 2.5 2.8
Japan -5.3 1.8 2.0
Eurozone -4.0 0.9 1.7
France -2.3 1.4 1.7
Germany -4.9 1.4 1.9


FBR TAX COLLECTION (Mn Rs)

 

INDIRECT TAXES

 
PERIOD DIRECT TAXES SALES EXCISE CUSTOMS TOTAL TOTAL TAX COLLECTION
July-08 18,469 33471 8,187 12,337 53,995 72,464
Aug-08 22,154 36624 8,940 11,097 56,661 78,815
Sep-08 47,612 40,136 8,334 14,729 63,199 110,811
Oct-08 25,572 42,343 10,604 13,660 66,607 92,179
Nov-08 22,921 33,597 8,549 9,742 51,888 74,809
Dec-08 73,608 31,008 8,944 11,194 51,146 124,754
Jan-09 24,999 32,866 8,095 10,670 51,631 76,630
Feb-09 23,649 35,395 9,009 9,472 53,876 77,525
March-09 48,596 35,697 10,338 12,490 58,525 107,121
April-09 25,360 38,073 10,592 11,798 60,463 85,823
May-09 32,318 40,164 10,973 11,417 62,554 94,872
June-09 75,013 52,920 13,490 19,776 86,186 161,199
July-09 18,433 38,259 8,183 9,202 55,644 74,077
Aug-09 26,421 39,044 9,590 11,133 59,767 86,188
Sep-09 39,418 38,467 8,022 12,465 58,954 98,372
Period: Actual at end month