POWER EMERGENCY

S.M. ABBAS ZAIDI, S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
Feb 02 - 08, 2009

ENERGY IN PAKISTAN
(MW)
YEAR DEMAND SUPPLY GAP
2003 13,071 14,336 1,265
2004 13,831 15,046 1,215
2005 14,642 15,082 440
2006 15,483 15,072 -411
2007 16,548 15,091 -1,457
2008 17,689 15,055 -2,634
2009 19,080 15,055 -4,025
2010 20,584 15,055 -5,529
Estimated by PPIB


ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN PAKISTAN DURING 2008
SOURCES WORLD WIDE (%) PAKISTAN (%)
Coal 40 6.5
Gas 19 45
Nuclear 16 2.5
Hydro 16 33
Oil 7 16
Sources: World Bank


CURRENT & FUTURE POWER POSITION

(MW)
. THERMAL HYDEL COAL N.B T.C REQ.
. WAPDA IPP'S KESC TOTAL WAPDA IPP'S TOTAL WAPDA KESC TOTAL
Installed 4,835 5,832 1,756 12,423 6,494 - 6,494 - - - 462 19,379 20,000
. 25% 30% 9% 64% 33% - 33% - - - 2% 100% .
After 5 yrs 5,000 6,000 2,000 13,000 6,000 3,000 9,000 400 1,200 1,600 1,000 24,600 25,000
. 20% 24% 8% 53% 24% 12% 36% 2% 5% 7% 4% 100% .
After 10 Yrs 5,000 6,000 2,000 13,000 10,630 5,000 15,630 400 4,600 5,000 1,500 35,130 35,000
. 14% 17% 6% 37% 30% 14% 44% 1% 13% 14% 4% 100% -
N.B: NUCLEAR PUBLIC
T.C: TOTAL CAPACITY
Req: REQUIRED
Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan.


WORLD WIDE NUCLEAR POWER PRODUCTION
COUNTRY PRODUCTION BN KWH 2006 % OF TOTAL PRODUCTION NO, OF OPERATIVE REACTORS NO, OF PROPOSED REACTORS NO, OF UNDER CONSTRUCTION REACTORS
USA 787 19 104 25 0
France 428 78 59 1 1
Japan 292 30 55 1 2
Germany 162 31 19 - -
Russia 144 16 31 20 7
South Korea 141 39 20 - 3
Britain 69 18 19 - -
Canada 92 16 18 2 2
Belgium 44 58 7 - -
South Africa 10 4 2 24 -
China 52 2 11 86 5
India 17 4 14 9 6
Pakistan 2.6 2.7 2 13 1
Various sources


WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY / REGION
NAME PERCENT
USA 21.7
Europe (OECD) 17.6
China 14.5
Russia 6.6
Other Non-OECD Asia 5.8
Japan 4.9
Central & South America 5.1
Middle East 5.0
Other , Non-OECD Europe 4.4
India 3.5
Africa 3.1
Canada 3.1
South Korea 2.0
Mexico 1.5
Australia & New Zealand 1.4
Various sources


SUPPLY AND DEMAND
(Updated on 19.9.2008)
. . SHORT TERM MEDIUM TERM (MW)
. Fiscal Years 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
A. Existing Generation
(i) Hydel 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444
(ii) GENCOs 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580
(iii) IPPs 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599
(iv) Rental 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264
(v) SPPs 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
. Total (A) 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957
B. Committed/ Under Process Generation
(i) Hydel* 0 209 453 453 536 536 536 1276 7345 7345 7345 7345 7345
(ii) GENCOs 60 300 300 1250 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
(iii) IPPs (Thermal + hydel) 0 1265 2919 5268 6002 6543 9259 9844 12021 12021 12021 12021 12021
(iv) Rental 0 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702
(v) SPPs 74 347 347 347 347 347 347 347 347 347 347 347 347
. Total (B) 134 3823 5721 9020 10587 11128 13844 15169 23415 23415 23415 23415 23415
C. Total Existing/
Committed Generation (A+B)
16091 19780 21678 24977 26544 27085 29801 31126 39372 39372 39372 39372 39372
D. Expected Available Generation (0.85x C) 13677 16813 18426 21230 22562 23022 25331 26457 33466 33466 33466 33466 31498
E. Demand (Summer Peak) 16484 17868 19352 20874 22460 24126 25919 28029 28029 32504 34918 37907 41132
F. Surplus/
Deficit Generation
-2807 -1055 -926 356 102 -1104 -588 -1572 5437 962 -1452 -4441 -9634
G. Allowance for Spinning Reserve* (5% of Demand) 824 893 968 1044 1123 1206 1296 1401 1401 1625 1746 1895 2057
H. Addl. Generation Required -3631 -1948 -1894 -688 -1021 -2310 -1884 -2973 4036 -663 -3198 -6336 -11691
Note: Demand and Supply Position by PEPCO System. Committed Generation upto 2016 only
Source: PPIB


POWER PROJECTS IN PRIVATE SECTOR UNDER PPIB STATUS AS ON 06-NOV-08
S#NO PROJECT LOCATION CAPACITY
(MW)
FUEL EXPECTED COD
1 Attock Power Project Morgah, Rawalpindi 165 Oil DEC-08
2 Atlas Power Project. Sheikhupura 225 Oil MAR-09
3 Orient (Balloki) Thermal Power Plant Balloki 225 Oil/Gas APR-09
4 Karkey Rental Project Karachi 232 Oil JUN-09
5 Walters Power Rental Project Karachi 205 Oil JUN-09
6 Sapphire Power Project Muridke-Punjab 225 Oil/Gas JUL-09
7 Fauji Mari Power Project at Daharki Daharki, Sindh 202 Dedicated Gas SEP-09
8 Nishat Power Ltd Lahore 200 OIL DEC-09
9 Engro Power Project Qadirpur, Sindh 227 GAS DEC-09
10 Progas Energy Project Port Qasim 305 LPG FEB-10
11 Saif Power Project(Sahiwal Power Project) Sahiwal, Punjab 225 Oil/Gas FEB-10
12 Hubco Narowal Fast Track Power Project Narowal, Punjab 225 Oil MAR-10
13 Cavalier Energy Project Port Qasim 470 LPG APR-10
14 Associated Technologies Project Lahore 200 Oil JUN-10
15 Nishat Chunnian Power Ltd Lahore 200 Oil JUN-10
16 Halmore(Bhikki) Power Project Bhikki 225 Oil/Gas DEC-10
17 Green Power Project Dadu, Sindh 205 Gas DEC-10
18 Liberty Power Tech Fast Track Power Project Faisalabad 200 Oil DEC-10
19 PIE-AmPower Project Sundra-Punjab 390 Oil DEC-10
20 Japan Power Project-IPP Capacity Expansion Near Lahore 101 Oil DEC-10
21 Ruba Energy Project Near Gujranwala 154 Oil DEC-10
22 Bestway Power Project Taxila 200 Oil MAR-11
23 Gulistan (Gujranwala) Power Project Gujranwala 200 Oil JUN-11
24 Star Thermal Power Project Daharki, Sindh 134 Gas AUG-11
25 Uch-II ICB Project Dera Murad Jamali 450 Gas DEC-11
26 Leading(Shahkot) Power Project Shahkot, Faisal 200 Oil DEC-11
27 New Bong Escape Hydel Project Near Mangla, AJK 84 Hydel DEC-11
28 Kotli Hydropower Project Kotli, AJK 100 Water JUN-12
29 Kandra Power Project (previously 1004) Sukkur, Sindh 120 Gas JUL-12
30 Gulpur Hydropower Project Gulpur, AJK 100 Hydel NOV-12
31 Rajdhani Hydro Power project Mangla, AJK 132 Hydel DEC-12
32 Shahpur Power Project Shahpur, Near Sargodha 150 Oil DEC-12
33 Asrit-Kedam Hydropower Project Near Kalam NWFP 209 Hydel DEC-12
34 Gabral - Kalam Hydropower Project Kalam NWFP 101 Hydel JUN-13
35 AES Imported Coal Project Gadani Near Karachi 1200 Coal JUN-13
36 Mitsui Imported Coal Project Gadani Near Karachi 1200 Imported Coal JUN-13
37 Patrind Hydropower Project(Star Hydropower Ltd) Musafarabad AJK 150 Hydel DEC-13
38 Sehra Hydropower Project Kotli AJK 65 Hydel JAN-14
39 Madian Hydropower Project Swat, NWFP 148 Hydel DEC-14
40 Karot Hydropower Project Kotli AJK 240 Hydel JAN-15
41 Kalam-Asrit Hydropower Project Swat River NWFP 197 Hydel JAN-15
42 Shogosin Hydropower Project Chitral NWFP 127 Hydel JUN-15
43 Shushgai Hydropower Project Chitral NWFP 102 Hydel JUN-15
44 Azad Pattan Hydropower Project Sudhnoti AJK 222 Hydel SEP-15
45 Matiltan Hydro power Project Swat NWFP 84 Hydel DEC-15
46 Sharmai Hydropower Project (Dir Hydropower Ltd Dir, NWFP 115 Hydel DEC-15
47 Kaigah Hydropower Project Kohistan NWFP 548 Hydel JAN-16
48 Chakothi-Hattian Hydropower Project Muzafarabad AJK 139 Hydel APR-16
49 Sukki Kinari Hydropower Project Mansehra, NWFP 840 Hydel JUL-16
Source : PPIB Total : 12363 MW