REDUCTION IN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

S.M.ABBAS ZAIDI,
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Aug
 17 - 23, 2009

After recording at an average rate of 6.1% per annum since 1999-00 to 2007-08, the electricity consumption by different sectors increased merely by 0.7% during July-March 2008-09 against the comparable period last year. This trend of the decelerating growth of electricity consumption started in 2006-07. With the exception of other government sector, all remaining sectors witnessed a negative growth during July-March 2008-09 over the same period last year. Reduction in consumption of electricity by different sectors is due to a shortage of electricity, its higher cost due to gradual phasing out of a subsidy on electricity, and the circular debt problem.

POWER SECTOR

INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY (MW)

S.NO POWER COMPANY INSTALLED CAPACITY 2007-08 SHARE (%) INSTALLED CAPACITY 2008-09 SHARE (%) CHANGE
1 WAPDA 11,654 59.6 11,454 58.0 -1.7
. Hydel 6,474 55.6* 6,555 57.2* 1.3
. Thermal 5,180 44.4* 4,899 42.8* -5.4
2 IPPs 5,760 29.4 5,954 30.1 3.4
3 Nuclear 462 2.4 462 2.3 0.0
4 KESC 1,690 8.6 1,884.0 9.5 11.5
. Total 19,566 100 19,754 100.0 1.0

The installed capacity in the private sector witnessed a growth of 3.4% during 2008-09 over the same period last year. While the private sector showed a negative growth of 1.7% in 2007-08. The total installed capacity of WAPDA accounting for 58.0% of total capacity declined by 1.7% during July-March 2008-09. The total installed capacity of IPPs remained 5,954 MW followed by KESC's 1884.0 MW and nuclear energy's 462 MW in July- March 2008-09.

ELECTRICITY GENERATION & POWER TRANSMISSION

The long term energy consumption pattern exhibited a similar picture with the same mix of hydro-thermal in total energy consumption. The share of thermal generation remained higher than that of hydro generation which shows that hydro potential has not been fully utilized. The hydro potential which is largely located in the north is still largely untapped. During the fiscal year July-March 2008-09, the electricity generation from hydro and thermal decreased by 4.4% and 5.4% respectively as compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, the share in total energy generation by hydro generation remained at 33.7% while thermal generation stood at 66.3% during FY 2008-09.

PRIVATE POWER AND INFRASTRUCTURE BOARD (PPIB)

ANNUAL EXPECTED CAPACITY (IPPS)

YEAR (MW)
2009 2543
2010 1201
2011 1268
2012 482
2013 2651
Total 8145

Private sector projects in the power sector are processed by the Private Power and Infrastructure Board. PPIB is currently processing thirty-three multiple fuel (oil, coal, gas and hydro) power projects with a cumulative capacity of 8,145 MW which are expected to be commissioned from year 2009 to 2013. The annual expected capacities of private power generation by 2013 will include 12 oil based projects with 2261 MW capacity, 6 hydro projects with 667 MW capacity, 4 pipeline quality dual fuel/LNG projects with 900 MW capacity, 5 dedicated gas projects with 1,218 MW capacity, four oil based rental power projects with 699 MW capacity, and two imported coal based power projects with a cumulative capacity of 2,400 MW.

ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF ENERGY

To meet the growing demand of energy and the target of 9700 MW generation by the year 2030, the Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB) has taken various initiatives. Under the remote village electrification program AEDB is to electrify 7874 remote off-grid villages in the Sindh and Balochistan provinces through RE technologies.

COAL

Pakistan has huge coal resources estimated at over 185 bn tones, including 175 bn tones identified at the Thar, Sindh province. Pakistan's coal generally ranks from lignite to sub bituminous. The production of coal has remained stagnant with no significant market demand. The production of coal has decreased by 28.8% during July-March 2008-09 over the comparable period last year. About 60.4% of total coal production in the country has been consumed by the brick-kilns industry followed by cement with the 37.3% consumption share of coal during the period under consideration.

POWER LOSSES

The transmission and distribution losses exhibited decreasing trend during July-March 2008-09 with transmission and distribution losses declining at 19.4% as compared to 20.3% in the corresponding period of last year. NTDC and DISCOs have started a range of technical and administrative measures to enhance operational and managerial efficiency to reduce power losses. These measures have showed positive signs resulting in the reduction of power losses and leading to an increase in revenue. Along with these, other measures which involve continuous processes like renovation, rehabilitation, capacitor installation and strengthening the distribution system network are being carried out to control the wastage of power.

INCREASING NUMBERS OF CONSUMERS

With the expansion of the electricity network, the number of consumers has also increased. During July-march 2008-09, the growth in numbers of consumers stood at 4.2% and customer base reached 18.5 mn consumers during July-March 2008-09 as compared to 17.7 mn in same period last year. The share of domestic consumers remained 84.9% followed by the commercial and industrial sectors having a 12.3% and a 1.4% share respectively.

CONCLUSION

At present total power production capacity in the country is about 19,500 MW, out of which Hydro Power is only 6,500 MW, balance of 13,000 MW is thermal either using natural gas or furnace oil. The current power crisis is grossly due to high oil prices and the country has to prepare itself at least for the next several years to somehow cope with it, since no immediate cheaper alternate solutions are available. The policy orientation needs a drastic modification and indigenous resource like hydel energy production as well as development of coal mining and new gas fields should be the top priority.