POWER AND ALLIED INDUSTRY

S.M. ABBAS ZAIDI, S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
Research Analyst
, PAGE
July 13 - 19, 2009

COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
. ELECTRICITY (Gwh) COAL (000 metric tonne)
YEAR TRAC-TION HOUSE HOLD COMM-
ERCIAL
INDUS-TRIAL AGRICUL-TURAL STREET-LIGHT OTHER GOVT. HOUSE-HOLD POWER BRICK KILNS CEMENT
04-05 12 27601 4080 18591 6988 305 3750 .. 180 3906.7 3807.2
05-06 13 30720 4730 19803 7949 353 4035 .. 149.3 4221.8 3342.8
06-07 12 33335 5363 21066 8176 387 4373 1 164.4 3277.5 4451.2
Jul-Mar
07-08 7 25168 4101 15713 6477 321 3421 1 132.6 3325.4 3100
08-09 4 23643 3829 14563 6501 307 6767 0.8 110 2911.6 1,800.0
e
Various source e: estimated for coal

CURRENT & FUTURE POWER POSITION (MW)
. THERMAL HYDEL COAL N P TC REQ
. WAP IPP'S KESC TOTAL WAP IPP'S TOTAL WAP KESC TOTAL
Insta-lled 4,835 5,832 1,756 12,423 6,494 - 6,494 - - - 462 19,379 20,000
. 25% 30% 9% 64% 33% . 33% - - - 2% 100% .
After 5 yrs 5,000 6,000 2,000 13,000 6,000 3,000 9,000 400 1,200 1,600 1,000 24,600 25,000
. 20% 24% 8% 53% 24% 12% 36% 2% 5% 7% 4% 100% .
After 10Yrs 5,000 6,000 2,000 13,000 10,630 5,000 15,630 400 4,600 5,000 1,500 35,130 35,000
. 14% 17% 6% 37% 30% 14% 44% 1% 13% 14% 4% 100% -
Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan. TP: Total Capacity
REQ: Required N P: Nuclear Public, WAP: WAPDA

PAKISTAN’S ELECTRICITY PRICES COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES

 . PAKISTAN* KOREA USA SPAIN MEXICO UK JAPAN GERMANY FRANCE
1998 Industry 0.088 0.039 0.045 0.057 0.038 0.065 0.128 0.067 0.047
Households 0.056 0.069 0.083 0.155 0.055 0.121 0.187 0.159 0.129
1999 Industry 0.09 0.046 0.039 0.049 0.042 0.064 0.143 0.057 0.044
Households 0.061 0.081 0.082 0.141 0.059 0.117 0.213 0.152 0.121
2000 Industry 0.082 0.052 0.046 0.043 0.051 0.055 0.143 0.041 0.036
Households 0.057 0.084 0.082 0.117 0.068 0.107 0.214 0.121 0.102
2001 Industry 0.074 0.048 0.05 0.041 0.053 0.051 0.127 0.044 0.035
Households 0.053 0.07 0.085 0.109 0.075 0.101 0.188 0.124 0.098
2002 Industry 0.073 0.047 0.048 0.048 0.056 0.052 0.115 0.049 0.037
Households 0.056 0.07 0.084 0.114 0.092 0.105 0.174 0.136 0.105
2003 Industry 0.08 0.051 0.049 – 0.062 0.055 – – 0.045
Households 0.061 0.074 0.087 – 0.091 0.166 – – 0.127
Various Source. UK: United Kingdom. Price of Electric Power Sold by Country (USD) [GOP 2005].

SUPPLY AND DEMAND
(UPDATED ON 19.9.2008)

 

SHORT TERM

MEDIUM TERM

(MW)
Fiscal Years 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
A.EXISTING GENERATION
Hydel 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444 6444
GENCOs 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580 3580
IPPs 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599 5599
Rental 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264 264
SPPs 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
Total (A) 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957 15957
COMMITTED/ UNDER PROCESS GENERATION
Hydel* 0 209 453 453 536 536 536 1276 7345 7345 7345 7345 7345
GENCOs 60 300 300 1250 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000
IPPs
(Thermal + hydel)
0 1265 2919 5268 6002 6543 9259 9844 12021 12021 12021 12021 12021
Rental 0 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702 1702
SPPs 74 347 347 347 347 347 347 347 347 347 347 347 347
Total (B) 134 3823 5721 9020 10587 11128 13844 15169 23415 23415 23415 23415 23415
(C).Total Existing/
Committed Generation (A+B)
16091 19780 21678 24977 26544 27085 29801 31126 39372 39372 39372 39372 39372
(D).Expected Available Generation (0.85x C) 13677 16813 18426 21230 22562 23022 25331 26457 33466 33466 33466 33466 31498
(E).Demand (Summer Peak) 16484 17868 19352 20874 22460 24126 25919 28029 28029 32504 34918 37907 41132
(F).Surplus/
Deficit Generation
-2807 -1055 -926 356 102 -1104 -588 -1572 5437 962 -1452 -4441 -9634
(G).Allowance for Spinning Reserve* (5% of Demand) 824 893 968 1044 1123 1206 1296 1401 1401 1625 1746 1895 2057
(H).Addl. Generation Required -3631 -1948 -1894 -688 -1021 -2310 -1884 -2973 4036 -663 -3198 -6336 -11691
Source: PPIB Note: Demand and Supply Position by PEPCO System. Committed Generation upto 2016 only

ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCES (%)

INDICATORS 1996-97 2007-08
Electricity 15 15.2
LPG 1 1.6
Oil 48 29.3
Coal 6 13.7
Gas 29 40.3

ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTORS (%)

SECTORS 2002-03 2007-08
Transport 33 29
Agriculture 3 2
Industrial 36 43
Commercial 3 4
Domestic 23 20
Other Govt. 2 2
Various Source

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY AND PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY

YEAR ENERGY SUPPLY PER CAPITA
MN TOE CHANGE (%) AVAILABILITY (TOE) CHANGE (%)
1998-99 41.72 - 0.31 -
1999-00 43.19 3.51 0.32 1.28
2000-01 44.4 2.82 0.32 0.63
2001-02 45.07 1.5 0.32 -1.25
2002-03 47.06 4.41 0.32 2.86
2003-04 50.85 8.06 0.34 5.25
2004-05 55.58 9.26 0.36 6.45
2005-06 58.06 4.18 0.37 2.48
2006-07 60.62 4.33 0.38 2.61
2007-08 62.92 3.78 0.39 2.86
Jul-Mar
2007-08 49.9 - 0.31 -
2008-09 E 47.1 -5.61 0.29 -6.45
Various Source: mn: million E: estimated. TOE- Tons of Oil Equivalent