INTEREST RATES AND EXPORTS

S.M. ABBAS ZAIDI, S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Jan 26 - Feb 01, 2009

REGIONAL COUNTRY VARIATION ANALYSIS

(Value in 000 $)

S. NO. COMMODITIES JUL-SEPT. 2008 JUL- SEPT. 2007 CHANGE
    EXPORT % SHARE EXPORT % SHARE VALUE %
1 Raw Cotton 29,051 0.56 7,213 0.16 21,838 302.76
2 Cotton Yarn 317,842 6.09 348,006 7.87 (30,164) (8.67)
3 Yarn other than Cotton Yarn 7,007 0.13 13,036 0.29 (6,029) (46.25)
4 Cotton Fabrics 601,792 11.54 473,403 10.71 128,389 27.12
5 Knitted/Croached Fabric 16,808 0.32 15,429 0.35 1,379 8.94
6 Ready Made Garments 300,895 5.77 390,782 8.84 (89,887) (23.00)
7 Knitwear ( Hosiery ) 545,548 10.46 514,226 11.63 31,322 6.09
8 Textile Madeups 130,613 2.50 129,129 2.92 1,484 1.15
9 Bed Ware 469,936 9.01 493,680 11.17 (23,744) (4.81)
10 Towels 179,978 3.45 133,909 3.03 46,069 34.40
11 Tents & Convas 16,185 0.31 18,478 0.42 (2,293) (12.41)
12 Synthetic Textiles 89,484 1.72 118,586 2.68 (29,102) (24.54)
13 Rice 621,418 11.91 230,390 5.21 391,028 169.72
14 Leather Tanned 90,180 1.73 97,531 2.21 (7,351) (7.54)
15 Leather Garments 125,313 2.40 116,359 2.63 8,954 7.70
16 Leather Gloves 53,376 1.02 35,234 0.80 18,142 51.49
17 Other Leather Manf 3,604 0.07 1,932 0.04 1,672 86.54
18 Footwear 37,742 0.72 29,507 0.67 8,235 27.91
19 Sports Goods 76,189 1.46 70,169 1.59 6,020 8.58
20 Carpets & Rugs 48,805 0.94 55,103 1.25 (6,298) (11.43)
21 Surgical Instruments 70,920 1.36 58,422 1.32 12,498 21.39
22 Petroleum & Its Products 327,298 6.28 264,367 5.98 62,931 23.80
23 Molasses 26,191 0.50 6,869 0.16 19,322 281.29
24 Fish & Fish Preparations 46,320 0.89 33,941 0.77 12,379 36.47
25 Fruits 39,848 0.76 38,554 0.87 1,294 3.36
26 Vegetables 7,437 0.14 11,308 0.26 (3,871) (34.23)
27 Chemical / Products 171,282 3.28 133,877 3.03 37,405 27.94
28 Engineering Goods 75,105 1.44 51,583 1.17 23,522 45.60
29 Cutlery 13,264 0.25 14,795 0.33 (1,531) (10.35)
30 Marble & Onyx Manf 8,989 0.17 5,533 0.13 3,456 62.46
31 Precious & Precious Stones 848 0.02 1,349 0.03 (501) (37.14)
32 Jewellery 59,843 1.15 46,816 1.06 13,027 27.83
33 Meat & Meat Preparations 17,840 0.34 12,947 0.29 4,893 37.79
34 Furniture 17,339 0.33 11,454 0.26 5,885 51.38
35 Cement 142,681 2.74 77,343 1.75 65,338 84.48
Sub Total 4,786,971 91.78 4,061,260 91.87 725,711 17.87
Others 428,579 8.22 359,320 8.13 69,259 19.28
G.Total 5,215,550 100.00 4,420,580 100.00 794,970 17.98
Source: TDAP


TOP 20 EXPORTING COUNTRIES

(Value in 000 $)

S. NO. COUNTRIES JUL-SEP 2008 JUL-SEP 2007 CHANGE
. EXPORT % SHARE EXPORT % SHARE VALUE %
1 U.S.A. 977,632 18.74 1,033,150 23.37 (55,518) (5.37)
2 U.A.E. 476,980 9.15 428,237 9.69 48,743 11.38
3 AFGHANISTAN 412,124 7.90 303,812 6.87 108,312 35.65
4 UNITED KINGDOM 253,037 4.85 251,605 5.69 1,432 0.57
5 CHINA 210,730 4.04 144,288 3.26 66,442 46.05
6 GERMANY 207,047 3.97 182,309 4.12 24,738 13.57
7 ITALY 182,762 3.50 168,186 3.80 14,576 8.67
8 INDIA 165,118 3.17 57,430 1.30 107,688 187.51
9 NETHERLANDS 133,738 2.56 110,395 2.50 23,343 21.14
10 IRAN ( ISLAMIC R.) 127,409 2.44 29,425 0.67 97,984 333.00
11 TURKEY 120,558 2.31 123,460 2.79 (2,902) (2.35)
12 SAUDI ARABIA 117,456 2.25 73,554 1.66 43,902 59.69
13 HONG KONG 116,689 2.24 141,022 3.19 (24,333) (17.25)
14 BELGIUM 114,301 2.19 97,115 2.20 17,186 17.70
15 SPAIN 104,045 1.99 115,270 2.61 (11,225) (9.74)
16 BANGLADESH 101,361 1.94 58,933 1.33 42,428 71.99
17 FRANCE 87,244 1.67 85,116 1.93 2,128 2.50
18 OMAN 67,815 1.30 34,324 0.78 33,491 97.57
19 SOUTH AFRICA 65,339 1.25 67,546 1.53 (2,207) (3.27)
20 KOREA REP. OF 52,476 1.01 43,905 0.99 8,571 19.52
SUB TOTAL 4,093,861 78.49 3,549,082 80.29 544,779 15.35
OTHERS 1,121,689 21.51 871,498 19.71 250,191 28.71
G.TOTAL 5,215,550 100.00 4,420,580 100.00 794,970 17.98
Source: TDAP


REGIONAL INTEREST RATES (%)
COUNTRIES END07 END08 JAN 2009
KOREA 5.00 3.00 2.5
THAILAND 3.25 2.75 2.0
PHILLIPINES 5.25 5.5 -
TAIWAN 3.375 2.0 1.5
INDONESIA 8.00 9.25 8.75
INDIA 7.75 6.5 5.5
CHINA 7.47 5.31 -
TURKEY 15.75 15.00 13.00
PAKISTAN 10.00 15:00 15:00
Various Sources

STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES
MONTHS/ YEAR RATE (%)
5-Jan-00 11.0
19-Sep-00 12.0
5-Oct-00 13.0
7-Jun-01 14.0
19-Jul-01 13.0
17-Aug-01 12.0
20-Oct-01 10.0
23-Jan-02 9.0
18-Nov-02 7.5
11-Apr-05 9.0
29-Jul-06 9.5
1-Aug-07 10.0
31-Jan-08 10.5
23-May-08 12.0
30-Jul-08 13.0
13-Nov-2008 till date 15.0
Source: SBP


EXPORTS OF PAKISTAN

(mn U.S.$)

YEARS EXPORTS
2000-2001 9,202
2001-2002 9,135
2002-2003 11,160
2003-2004 12,313
2004-2005 14,391
2005-2006 16,451
2006-2007 16,976
2007-2008 19,052
2008-2009 22,100 (Target)
Source: FBS