PRE-BUDGET

S.M. ABBAS ZAIDI, S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI,
Research Analyst
, PAGE
May 25 - 31, 2009

PRICES OF OIL PRODUCTS IN PAKISTAN

PRODUCTS

JP-1

JP-4

JP-8

PREMIUM MOTOR GASOLINE

HOBC

KEROSENE OIL

LIGHT DIESEL OIL

INTERNATIONAL MONTHLY OIL PRICES PER BARREL

8-May 67.33 65.7 76.2 68.81 80.77 41.44 44.59 119.39
8-Jun 84.9 80.05 94.81 68.81 80.77 41.44 44.59 128.33
8-Jul 82.1 76.79 87.79 75.69 88.85 49.73 49.05 131.22
8-Aug 86.11 79.45 92.16 86.66 96.08 58.37 56.5 112.41
8-Sep 75.34 72.13 81.39 86.66 96.08 58.37 56.5 96.85
8-Oct 69.01 64.36 75.04 81.66 96.08 61.87 60 69.16
8-Nov 50.9 42.66 57.01 76.66 96.08 61.87 60 49.76
8-Dec 42.54 33.55 48.48 57.66 72.08 51.87 48 38.6
Jan.09 35.89 31.4 41.71 57.66 72.08 51.87 48 42.38
Feb.09 35.62 33.54 41.46 57.66 72.08 51.87 48 41.41
Mar.09 31.22 32.58 37.07 57.66 72.08 51.87 48 45.78
Apr.09 31.83 33.5 37.67 57.66 72.08 51.87 48 50.21
May.09 36.17 37.06 42 56.21 70.28 51.87 48 55.00
Source: OGRA

CORE INFLATION OF CPI: CHANGE OVER SAME MONTH OF PREVIOUS YEAR IN %

MONTHS TRIMMED CORE INFLATION NON-FOOD & NON-ENERGY CORE INFLATION
  2007-08 2008-09 2007-08 2008-09
Jul 7 19.7 6.5 14.7
Aug 6.7 21 6 16.4
Sep 8.2 21.2 6.1 17.3
Oct 8.9 21.7 6.5 18.3
Nov 8.7 21.3 6.9 18.9
Dec 9.2 21.6 7.2 18.8
Jan 9.7 19.6 7.8 18.9
Feb 10 20.8 8.1 18.9
Mar 11.3 19.3 9.3 18.5
Apr 14.1 17.6 10.8 17.7
Source: FBS

AVERAGE JULY ľAPRIL OVER SAME PERIOD OF PREVIOUS YEAR CHANGE OF INDICES IN %
INDEX 2008-2009 2007-2008 2006-2007
CPI 22.35 10.27 7.89
SPI 26.33 14.09 11.13
WPI 21.44 13.70 6.92
Source: FBS

KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF PAKISTAN

. .

JULY-MARCH

.
ITEMS UNIT 2007-08 2008-09 % CHANGE
Large-scale Manufacturing@ % 5.3 -5.7 -
Inflation % 9.5 23 -
- Food % 13.8 27.8 -
- Non-Food % 6.3 19.2 -
- Core Inflation* % 7.1 17.9 -
Tax Collection (FBR) Rs. Billion 679.9 813.6 19.7
- Direct Tax 257.6 306.2 18.8
- Indirect Tax 422.3 507.5 19.8
- Sales Tax 258.6 321.5 23.5
~ Import Related 141.7 149.3 3.9
~ Domestic 116.9 172.2 47.2
- Customs Duty 101.9 105.4 3.4
- Central Excise 61.8 80.6 30.4
Exports (fob) $ Million 14,310 14,328 0.1
Imports (fob) $ Million 25,044 23,730 -5.2
Trade Balance $ Million -10,734 -9,402 -12.4 Improvement
Remittances $ Million 4,728.0 5,658.0 19.7
Current Account Deficit $ Million -9,627 -7,645 20.8
Foreign Investment (Total) $ Million 3,260.3 2,623.7 -19.5
- FDI (Private) $ Million 3,305.9 3,042.1 -8.0
- Portfolio (Private)** $ Million -45.6 -418.4 -817.5
- Public Investment** $ Million -7.5 -539.1 -7088.0
FOREX Reserves (End Mar.) $ Billion 13.2 10.5 -
Exchange-Rate (Avg. Mar.) Rs /US$ 62.7 80.4 22.0 (Depreciation)
Lending Rate (Avg. Feb.) % 10.8 14.8 .
Source: Ministry of Finance

BUDGET DISTRIBUTION IN PAKISTAN (Rs in Mn)

CLASSIFICATION 2007-08 2008-09 % in 2008-09
General Public Service 881657 929522 62.25
Defence Affairs and Services 277265 296077 19.9
Public Order and Safety Affairs 26106 26770 1.79
Economic Affairs 293442 201151 13.43
Environment Protection 183 210 0.01
Housing & Community Amenities 1146 1359 0.09
Health Affairs and Services 5287 5490 0.36
Recreational, Culture & Religion 3131 3191 0.21
Education Affairs and Services 24280 24622 1.64
Social Protection 3765 4791 0.32
TOT: 1516262 1493183 .
Various sources