STRATEGY FOR 2009-2010
PROF. DR. KHAWAJA AMJAD SAEED (firstname.lastname@example.org)
May 18 - 24, 2009
Except for three years in the history of Pakistan, exports have never exceeded imports. The first year in the history of Pakistan was 1947 - 48 when the exports marginally increased. Both exports and imports were around half a billion US$. During 1950 - 51, exports were slightly higher than imports because of Korean war which boosted Pakistan's exports. During 1972 - 73, Pakistan exports showed marginal increase over its imports due to diversion of hitherto exports to former East Pakistan which were indirectly diverted. Therefore, the challenge of increase of exports over imports is a chronic problem which no Government has so far addressed. This Challenge needs to be met.
During the last several years we have not succeeded in achieving the targets set by successive Governments in respect of exports. The present Government target relating to exports is US$ 21.0 billion which is not likely to be met. If we succeeded in achieving US$ 20 billion during 2008-09, we may be fortunate. No announcement of a holistic Economic Policy by the Government has yet been made. Due to shortages of gas, electricity, law and order problems and other consequential snow-fall effects, the industrial growth is likely to be in negative and consequentially the biggest problem in exports increase is lack of exportable surplus. In order to ensure a stable foreign exchange rate it highly essential that a breakthrough approach should be undertaken in the increase of exports failing which our foreign exchange parity with other currencies will continue to show a declining trend.
As on January 01, 2008, One US$ was equal to Rs. 60/- which is now Rs. 80/-. Fortunately in the recent few months there has been a stability in this rate. However, the brighter side of inflows of dollars is inward remittances which is a tribute to be given to our Pakistan Expatriates abroad who have been sending remittances. Because of this and on account of IMF support, our foreign currency reserves are around US$ 11.0 billion. Therefore, there is a crying need to be in search of a new breakthrough strategy for boosting exports.
Actual exports (at Fob) were $ 17.28 billion for 2006-07. This figure for 2007-08 was US$ 20.13 billion. A Target of $ 21.00 billion + was set for 2008-09. The progress report in Review of Economic Situation July ñ March 2008-09 reported actual exports of $ 14.49 representing 69% of the annual target for 2008-09. Therefore, the likelihood of achieving the above target is not very bright. This, according to the above Review is ì.. is really worrying thing for the economy".
The positive contribution has come from non-textile exports which in the above period has registered a positive growth of 9.8%. The food group (Rice) export grew by 4.5%.
Unfortunately, the textile industry showed a negative growth of 7.6% percent.
STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS FOR BOOSTING EXPORTS
For boosting exports, the following twelve (12) point strategy is suggested for 2009-2010:
|1. Priority||For quantum jump|
|2. Global Share||Programmed Increase|
|3. Regional Setting||
* SAPTA - On going
* SAPTA -Started January 01, 2006
* Economic Union – 2010
* Global Share : 2001 - 1%
2003 - 1.07%
2004 - 1.12%
2005 - 1.18%
2006 - 1.30%
2007 - 1.32%
|4. Niche Market||Fish, Ready-Made Garments|
|5. Exportable Surplus||Single Factor|
* Ready-Made Garments
|7. Product Focus||
* Value Addition
* ISO 9000, ISO 14000 & Other Series
* Non-Traditional Items - Fruits, Fish, Vegetables
|9. New Breed of Exporters:||HRD|
|11. Institutional Approach||EPZs in every Divisional Headquarters of each province be established|
|12. Slogan||Exports increase - way of life|
We hope that all the stakeholders (workers, businessmen, exporters, Government functionaries, researchers and other related persons and institutions) will work together to develop a culture of boosting exports to add to the socio ñ economic stability of Pakistan and strengthen our exchange rate and external sector. Top priority be attached and productive results will follow.