OIL PRICES AND INFLATION

S.M. ABBAS ZAIDI, S.KAMAL HAYDER KAZMI
Research Analyst
, PAGE
Jan 19 - 25, 2009

INFLATION RATE IN PAKISTAN (%)
PERIOD SPI CPI WPI
1991-1992 10.54 10.58 9.84
1992-1993 10.71 9.83 7.36
1993-1994 11.79 11.27 11.4
1994-1995 15.01 13.02 16
1995-1996 10.71 10.79 11.1
1996-1997 12.45 11.8 13.01
1997-1998 7.35 7.81 6.58
1998-1999 6.44 5.74 6.35
1999-2000 1.83 3.58 1.77
2000-2001 4.84 4.41 6.21
2001-2002 3.37 3.54 2.08
2002-2003 3.58 3.1 5.57
2003-2004 6.83 4.57 7.91
2004-2005 11.55 9.28 6.75
2005-2006 7.02 7.92 10.1
2006-2007 10.82 7.77 6.94
2007-2008 11.01 8.67 12.64
2008-2009 29.79 24.68 19.87
Source: FBS


MONTHLY BASKET PRICE
8-Jan 88.35
8-Feb 90.64
8-Mar 99.03
8-Apr 105.16
8-May 119.39
8-Jun 128.33
8-Jul 131.22
8-Aug 112.41
8-Sep 96.85
8-Oct 69.16
8-Nov 49.76
8-Dec 38.6
9-Jan 42.38
Source: OPEC


CORE INFLATION OF CPI: CHANGE OVER SAME MONTH OF PERVIOUS YEAR IN %

MONTHS

TRIMMED CORE INFLATION NON-FOOD & NON- ENERGY CORE INFLATION
2007 2008 2007 2008
JAN 6.3 9.7 5.7 7.8
FEB 6.8 10.0 6.0 8.1
MAR 6.8 11.2 5.9 9.3
APR 6.6 16.3 5.6 10.8
MAY 6.1 16.1 5.2 12.3
JUN 6.4 17.9 5.7 13.0
JUL 7.0 19.7 6.5 14.7
AUG 6.7 22.3 6.0 16.4
SEP 8.2 22.8 6.1 17.3
OCT 8.9 22.0 6.5 18.3
NOV 8.7 21.7 6.9 18.9
Source: FBS


CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX BY GROUPS OF COMMODITIES AND SERVICES (2000-01= 100)

GROUPS

GROUP WEIGHT IN %

INDICES

CHANGE NOVEMBER,2008 OVER

OCT, 08

Nov, 07

OCT, 08

NOV, 07

NOV, 08

OCT, 08

Nov, 07

IN %

IN % POINTS (IMPACT)

General 100 191.85 192.08 153.87 -0.12 24.68 -0.12 24.68
Food & beverages 40.34 218.12 221.44 167.22 -1.50 30.44 0.76 12.51
Non-perishable food items 35.20 217.02 219.82 164.47 -1.28 31.95 0.57 11.40
Perishable food items 5.14 225.68 232.50 186.06 -2.94 21.29 0.19 1.11
Apparel, textile & footwear 6.10 152.74 151.62 131.84 0.74 15.85 -0.06 0.99
House rent 23.43 177.22 174.44 151.73 1.59 16.80 -0.47 4.01
Fuel & lighting 7.29 203.62 185.90 154.36 9.53 31.91 -0.87 2.37
Household, furniture & equipment etc. 3.29 159.08 156.97 138.31 1.34 15.02 -0.06 0.50
Transport & communication 7.32 188.88 204.43 146.85 -7.61 28.62 0.70 2.14
Recreation & entertainment 0.83 119.47 119.17 106.21 0.25 12.48 0 0.11
Education 3.45 161.90 160.80 139.17 0.68 16.33 -0.03 0.57
Cleaning, laundry & personal appearance 5.88 161.71 159.76 134.36 1.22 20.36 -0.09 1.22
Medicare 2.07 146.10 145.96 129.81 0.10 12.55 0 0.26
Source: FBS


PRICES OF OIL PRODUCTS IN PAKISTAN
PRODUCTS JP-1 JP-4 JP-8 PREMIUM MOTOR GASOLINE HOBC KEROSENE OIL LIGHT DIESEL OIL
Jan-08 48.85 51.73 56.64 53.70 64.88 35.23 32.57
Feb-08 47.39 51.06 55.11 53.70 64.88 35.23 32.57
Mar-08 52.77 55.46 60.75 58.70 69.88 38.78 36.07
April-08 59.47 59.17 67.94 62.81 74.77 41.44 38.59
May-08 67.33 65.70 76.20 68.81 80.77 41.44 44.59
June-08 84.90 80.05 94.81 68.81 80.77 41.44 44.59
July-08 82.10 76.79 87.79 75.69 88.85 49.73 49.05
Aug-08 86.11 79.45 92.16 86.66 96.08 58.37 56.50
Sep-08 75.34 72.13 81.39 86.66 96.08 58.37 56.50
Oct -08 69.01 64.36 75.04 81.66 96.08 61.87 60.00
Nov-08 50.90 42.66 57.01 76.66 96.08 61.87 60.00
Dec-08 42.54 33.55 48.48 57.66 72.08 51.87 48.00
1.Jan.09 35.89 31.40 41.71 57.66 72.08 51.87 48.00
Source: OGRA


TRAIN FARES

KHYBER MAIL
FROM TO CLASS TICKET FARE
KC LHR ACLZ Full Berth 2910
KC LHR ACL Full Seat 1980
KC LHR ACLZ Half Seat 1060
KC LHR ACLZ Half Berth 1520
TEZGAM EXP
FROM TO CLASS TICKET FARE
KC LHR ACLZ Half Berth 1520
KC LHR ACLZ Full Berth 2910
KC LHR ACSL Half Seat 1890
KC LHR ACSL Full Seat 3710
SHALIMAR EXP
FROM TO CLASS TICKET FARE
KC LHR ACL Full Berth 1880
KC LHR ACL Half Berth 1010
KC LHR ACL Full Seat 1830
KC LHR ACL Half Seat 960
KARAKORAM EXP
FROM TO CLASS TICKET FARE
KC LHR ACLZ Half Berth 1520
KC LHR ACLZ Full Seat 1980
KC LHR ACLZ Half Seat 1060
KC LHR ACLZ Full Berth 2910
Source: Pakistan Railway

BUS FARES
DISTANCE FARES
5 to 5.6 km Rs 10
Up to 10km Rs 12
Up to 20.7 km Rs 13
OTHERS FARES
Students Rs 7
Mini Coaches Rs 15
Various sources


AIRLINE FARES

PAKISTAN INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES (PIA)

DEPARTS ARRIVES BUSINESS ECONOMY PLUS ECONOMY
KHI ISB 14,800 to 17,700 PKR 9,300 to 10,300 PKR 5000 to 8,200 PKR
KHI LHR 16,300 PKR 8,800 to 9300 PKR 5,700 to 8,300 PKR
Source: PIA
AIR BLUE
DEPARTS ARRIVES FARE TYPE PRICE
KHI ISB 90% off Rs 6,334
KHI ISB 80% off Rs 6,845
KHI LHR 90% off Rs 6,276
KHI LHR 80% off Rs 6,729
Source: AIR BLUE