ENERGY SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM NEED IMPETUS

SHAMSUL GHANI (shams_ghani@hotmail.com)
June 09 - 15, 2008

The following figures released by the Private Power & Infrastructure Board (PPIB) provide us insight to develop a realistic road map for expanding our energy generation base which is so vital for country's economic prosperity.

YEAR

DEMAND (MWH)

%INCREASE IN DEMAND

SUPPLY (MWH)

SURPLUS / (DEFICIT)

2003

13,071

 

14,336

1,265

2004

13,831

6

15,046

1,215

2005

14,642

6

15,082

440

2006

15,483

6

15,072

(411)

2007

16,548

7

15,091

(1,457)

2008

17,689

7

15,055

(2,634)

2009

19,080

8

15,055

(4,025)

2010

20,584

8

15,055

(5,529)

The prevailing energy crisis has many dimensions. From disturbing the psyche of citizens to upsetting the economic growth forecasts, it has affected almost every conceivable sphere of life. Given the rising demand pattern, we will have to at least double our generating capacity latest by 2015. This doubling of capacity based on an optimal and cost-effective generation mix can keep our industrial wheel moving.

AN OPTIMAL MIX

The decision on an optimal mix of energy is taken on the basis of a particular country's natural resource position. WE and China produce major part of their energy requirement from coal. Canada uses its abundant water resources to produce a sizeable chunk of its energy needs. The nature has endowed us with ample water and coal resources. So, shifting our dependence from oil-based to water/coal-based energy is an obvious solution. This way, the depleting natural gas resources could be used to feed the transport and household sectors. It is the implementation aspect rather than the resource scarcity issue that haunts us. The slow pace of Thar affairs is testimony to our incompetence in the face of a bountiful natural supply of coal. The following table gives the composition of our past and present power generation mix.

 

1995 (%)

2004 (%)

2006 (MWH)

%AGE

2007 (mwh)

%AGE

Gas

37

50

6,656

44.16

5,510

36.50

Oil

42

30

3,042

20.19

4,314

28.57

Coal

6

6.5

21

0.14

20

0.13

Thermal

85

86.5

9,719

64.49

9,844

65.20

Hydel

15

12.7

4,975

33.01

4,905

32.50

Nuclear

-

0.8

378

2.50

342

2.30

Total

100

100

15,072

100

15,091

100

PLANNING COMMISSION'S VISION 2030

The table below exhibits the vision of our Planning Commission on the proposed energy mix.

THERMAL

 

OIL

GAS

COAL

HYDEL

NUCLEAR

RENEWABLE

TOTAL

Existing Capacity

6,400

5,940

160

6,460

400

180

19,540

ADDITION

2010

160

4,860

900

1,260

-

700

27,420

2015

300

7,550

3,000

7,570

900

800

47,540

2020

300

12,560

4,200

4,700

1,500

1,470

72,270

2025

300

22,490

5,400

5,600

2,000

2,700

110,760

2030

300

30,360

6,250

7,070

4,000

3,850

162,590

Total

7,760

83,760

19,910

32,660

8,800

9,700

162,590

%age

4.77

51.52

12.25

20.09

5.40

5.97

100

While a drastic cut in the percentage contribution of oil-based energy that is from the present 28.6 per cent to 4.8 per cent in 2030 seems logical, the increase in gas-fired power from the present 36.5 per cent to the projected 51.5 per cent in 2030 is questionable given the gradual depletion of known gas reserves. The reduction in hydel power contribution from the present 32.5 per cent to 20.1 per cent in 2030 coupled with the slow projected expansion of the coal-fired power base does not appear so visionary. Our water and coal resources have to be optimally utilized putting lesser pressure on gas resources till such time the consumed known gas reserves are replete.

BASHING THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT POLICIES

A politically motivated prevarication that the previous government did nothing to improve country's energy situation is an unfortunate state of affairs. We wasted most of our precious time toying with the idea of Kala Bagh Dam without opening up to other possibilities particularly the securing of consensus of all provinces on alternate dam projects. Nevertheless, WAPDA continued its good work of identifying, launching and constructing various hydel power projects. Its five projects with an aggregate capacity of 1388 MW in NWFP, Mianwali and Muzaffarabad (AJ & K) are due to be completed by 2010. The following under construction dam projects are also WAPDA's priority:

Gomal Zam Dam project, Mirani Dam project, Mangla Dam Raising project, Sabakzai Dam project, Satpara Dam project

The following projects announced by the President will significantly add to country's power generation capacity:

Diamer Basha Dam Project, Kurram Tangi Dam Project, Kala Bagh Dam Project, Munda Dam Project, Akhori Dam Project

Besides, WAPDA has in hand the feasibility of the following eleven small and large hydel power projects with an aggregate capacity of 13,819 MW:

Golen Gol

106 MW

Dasu

4,000 MW

Bunji

5,400 MW

Kenal Khwar

122 MW

Lawi

70 MW

Pallas Valley

621 MW

Spat Gah

610 MW

Basho

28 MW

Phander

40 MW

Jabban

22 MW

Thaskot

2,800 MW

The good work done by PPIB in implementing the 2002 power olicy objectives is testimony to the fact that the previous government was alive to the situation. PPIB's 13 projects designed to produce a cumulative 2575MW are expected to be commissioned by 2010.