(DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS)
MULAZIM ALI KHOKHAR
Research Analyst, PAGE
Apr 07 - 13, 2008
Today Pakistan has a 19,505MW of installed electricity generation capacity, of which thermal generation represents 65% with 12,580MW, Hydel 33% with 6463MW and Nuclear 2% with 462MW however the contribution from alternate resources is quite nominal.
It is interesting to note that of the total installed capacity the public sector contributes 70% while the private sector's share estimated at 30%. However, the government intends to raise the private involvement which may cross Public capacities next 10 years. Projected 6,428MW electricity generation capacities are designed to be installed by the end of FY-10 through the IPPs, including 700 MW of Wind Power.
Alternate energy resources include; Wind (including micro wind projects), solar Photovoltaic, Solar Thermal, Bio mass (Waste to energy), bio fuels, Geo Thermal, Geo magmatic and micro hydel.
For the improvement of Alternate Energy Production almost 225 wind water pumping systems and some 140 micro wind turbines of each 500 watts are being installed in Balochistan and/or Sindh respectively and will provide electricity to 691 houses of 18 remote villages. 84 IPPs operating in the country, are planning to establish 50MW wind farm each, on a Buy-Own-Operate "BOO" or Buy-Own-Operate-Transfer "BOOT" basis, under the Policy for Development of Renewable Energy for Power Generation 2006. In all Seven IPPs have completed their Feasibility Studies for 50 MW projects and eight investors have so far applied for grant of Generation License to NEPRA.
Alternate Energy development Board has been assigned the duty to ensure the targets with further 9,700MW to be produced by the end of FY-30 all through private sector investments.
Our country potentially receives 19 Mega Joules per square meter on average, and covers 796,095 square kilometers of land. This potential of energy can be utilized effectively to produce electricity for small villages and homes in remote area saving huge costs of grid connectivity and environmental protection.
Northern areas of Balochistan are presenting greater potential while most of the areas witness average potential for the utilization of the technology to produce electricity.
Government has planned to electrify 6968 villages in Balochistan and 906 in Sindh through these Renewable Energy sources that are outside the 20 km radius of the national grid.
More than 600 and then 400 villages were electrified using this technology and AEDB is currently in process of installing solar thermal power plants producing max 35k We. If the projects succeed, private sector will be facilitated to install 50-100 MWe Solar Thermal Power Plants.
Pakistan's hydro power sector poses the potential of about 46,000 MW while we are utilizing only 15% of it. Our country has vast irrigation system producing huge potentials for over 2000 small and medium site with capacities on average 50 MW. These projects can start yielding the power and will mitigate the shortages with 2 to 3 years. Most of the hydro power potential lies in the NWFP, Northern Areas and AJK.
Most of these projects can potentially be installed at off-grid areas so as to minimize the costs and provide electricity in the country-side away from cities and the installed grid systems.
Pakistan has not yet materialized the potential of efficient utilization of bio waste to produce energy. Currently studies are being carried out in 10 major cities and 6 letters of intent have been issued for the implementation of the projects with total capacity of 275MW of electricity. These sorts of projects will help maintain clean environment in the cities and achieve cost efficiencies.
DEMAND, OPPORTUNITIES & FUTURE OUTLOOK
Although the country has enough capacity of hydel resources (46000MW) to meet and exceed its potential demand of 20,000 which will reach to 35,000 MW in FY-10 but due to some political and regional conflicts it is very hard to achieve. But no worries as the science & technology has made Pakistan capable enough to produce the energy through different resources discussed earlier and it can meet the potential demands of local villages through those low cost & efficient projects.
Government has offered many incentives like higher tariffs, and potential political, fiscal and wind risk coverage and attractive IRRs. Land and other resources for the utilization of the technologies are provided at cheaper rates. All these and other favorable policies are attracting investments in the sector and within few years this phenomenon of energy production will catch higher private participation. The technologies are very attractive, feasible and cost effective and we see brighter future of investments in these sectors.