A CRITICAL REVIEW OF ENERGY SECTOR
TAUQIR HAIDER (Financial & Business Consultant) (firstname.lastname@example.org <mailto:email@example.com> , firstname.lastname@example.org)
( Visiting Faculty Member of: UMT,PU,UCP,GCU,LUMS & ICMAP)
Aug 06 - 12, 2007
The energy sector plays a key role in the development and growth of the economy, as the availability of adequate supplies of energy is a pre-requisite to generate economic activities. The main objectives of the energy sector are ensuring adequate, secure, and cost-effective supplies, utilizing the resources efficiently and minimizing its losses.
In recent years, the combination of rising oil consumption and flat oil production in Pakistan has led to rising oil imports from Middle East exporters. In addition, the lack of refining <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Petroleum_refining> capacity leaves Pakistan heavily dependent on petroleum product imports. Natural gas accounts for the largest share of Pakistan's energy use, amounting to about 50 percent of total energy consumption. Pakistan currently consumes all of its domestic natural gas production, but without higher production Pakistan will need to become a natural gas importer. As a result, Pakistan is exploring several pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) import options to meet the expected growth in natural gas demand. Pakistan's electricity demand is rising rapidly. According to Pakistani government estimates, generating capacity needs to grow by 50 percent by 2010 in order to meet expected demand.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF ENERGY SECTOR IN RECENT YEARS
In fiscal year (FY) 2004/2005 (ending in June), Pakistan achieved gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 8.4 percent and in 2005/2006 the country had GDP growth of 6.6 percent. High inflation (9.1 percent) in 2004/2005 was attributed to escalating oil prices, higher housing rents and food item shortages. In an effort to decrease inflation, the central bank of Pakistan announced that it would raise interest rates. The strategy worked, with inflation decreasing to 7.6 percent by the end of FY 2005/2006. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank, both major donor organizations to Pakistan, have acknowledged the favorable performance and progress in Pakistan's structural reforms, but have stressed even greater reform in the public institutions and the public energy sector where progress has been slow. In 2004, the IMF approved a fresh loan of nearly $250 million as part of its overall $1.5 billion aid package to Pakistan. In 2005, the United States began the first installments of a $3 billion aid package, which will continue through 2010. In 2006, the World Bank approved loans of $185 million for various reform and infrastructure projects, in addition to the nearly $850 million loaned to the country in 2005.
Due to devastating Earthquake in October 2005, the majority of the damage occurred in rural areas of the country and had minimal impact on the economy. Furthermore, international aid inflows in the aftermath of the earthquake have served to bolster Pakistan's economy. The United States pledged $510 million for rebuilding Pakistani infrastructure, but relief coordinators estimate that Pakistan will need billions of dollars and up to ten years to fully rebuild. Pakistan and India decided to extend aid to one another after the earthquake. They also agreed to continue confidence building measures, which include the notification of missile testing, creating new bank branches and increasing the number of airline destinations in both countries.
MAJOR ENERGY RESOURCES
According to Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), Pakistan had proven oil reserves of 300 million barrels as of January 2006. The majority of produced oil comes from proven reserves located in the southern half of the country, with the three largest oil-producing fields located in the Southern Indus Basin. Additional producing fields are located in the Middle and Upper Indus Basins. Since the late 1980s, Pakistan has not experienced many new oil fields coming online. As a result, oil production has remained fairly flat, at around 60,000 barrels per day (bbl/d). During the first eleven months of 2006, Pakistan produced an average of 58,000 bbl/d of crude oil. However, Pakistan has ambitious plans to increase its current output to 100,000 bbl/d by 2010.
To encourage oil sector investment, the Pakistan's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources has offered various tax and royalty payment incentives to oil companies. Pakistan's three largest national oil companies (NOCs), include the Oil and Gas Development Corporation Limited (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) and Pakistan State Oil (PSO). All three operate under joint ventures and partnerships with various international oil companies (IOCs) and other domestic firms. Major IOCs operating in Pakistan include BP (UK), Eni (Italy), OMV (Austria), Orient Petroleum Inc. (OPI, Canada <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Canada>), Petronas (Malaysia <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Malaysia> ) and Tullow (Ireland).
In response to conditions laid down by lenders, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, Pakistan continues to strive for privatization of its state-owned companies. For instance, the government has on offer a 51 percent stake in PPL, as well as a 54 percent stake in PSO. PPL owns the Sui fields in Balochistan, as well as exploration interests in 22 blocks, while PSO holds a majority share in the domestic diesel fuel market with more than 3,800 retail outlets. In November 2006, Pakistan plans to have a share issue from OGDCL for the equivalent of 15 percent of the NOCs capitalization. Five percent of the company was previously divested in November 2003 in an initial public offering (IPO). Pakistan hopes to reap significant revenues from these privatizations over the next several years. BP(UK) is the largest oil producer in Pakistan, with production averaging approximately 30,000 bbl/d. The oil major operates 43 fields and more than 100 wells throughout the country. OGCDL is Pakistan's second-largest oil producer, with average production at 25,000 bbl/d. While there is no prospect for Pakistan to reach self-sufficiency in oil, the government has encouraged private (including foreign) firms to develop domestic production capacity. In 2005, NOCs and IOCs drilled a total of 29 onshore development wells in Pakistan. BP led the development by drilling ten wells in its Lower Indus Basin acreage, while ODCGL drilled nine wells, with the majority being on its acreage in the Middle Indus Basin. PPL expanded its interests in 2005, by drilling offshore at the Pasni X2 shallow water field. It was the first time a Pakistani oil company had explored offshore.
Pakistan's net oil imports are projected to rise substantially in coming years as demand growth outpaces increases in production. Demand for refined petroleum <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Petroleum_refining> products also exceeds domestic oil refining capacity, so nearly half of Pakistani oil imports are refined products. Pakistan's largest port is located at Karachi, which serves as the principle point of entry for oil imports. PSO leads Pakistan's fuel distribution market, with its main storage facilities located at Port Mohammed Bin Qasim.
The largest of the refineries is the Pak-Arab Refinery Complex (PARCO), which became operational in late 2000, with 95,000 bbl/d of refining capacity. In July 2004, Bosicor Pakistan Limited (BPL) began commercial operations at its Mouza Kund plant, near Karachi. The 30,000-bbl/d refinery is supplied with shipments of crude oil from Qatar <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Qatar>. The plant allowed Pakistan to become a supplier of naphtha, which constitutes 20 percent of the output. In June 2006, Kuwait <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Kuwait> agreed to fund a $1.2 billion oil refinery, which would have a planned capacity of 100,000 bbl/d. The refinery would be located at Port Qasim in Karachi.
Pakistan's government is working on plans to build a pipeline that spans from Iran's <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Iran> massive natural gas reserves to Indian markets across Pakistani territory. In August 2006, Iran and Pakistan extended a previously signed (April 2005) memorandum
of understanding (MoU) until 2007. One of the main concerns for both Pakistan and India <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_India> is how much Iran will charge for the natural gas. To help mediate the pricing issue, the three countries appointed an international consultant this past summer. Iran has offered to cover 60 percent of the construction costs of the pipeline and Pakistani officials have stressed their ability to safeguard the pipeline. Pakistan could earn about $70 million annually in transit fees from the pipeline. If India decides to forego its part in the pipeline project, Pakistan and Iran have agreed to work on a bilateral Iran-Pakistan pipeline project.
A second natural gas import possibility that has been considered is an eventual link to the Dolphin Project in Qatar. This plan would supply natural gas from Qatar's North Dome field to Pakistan via a sub sea pipeline from Oman <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Oman> . Even though Pakistan has signed a preliminary agreement to eventually purchase natural gas from Qatar <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Qatar> , it remains to be seen if further action on the project will be taken.
A third natural gas pipeline option that has been discussed is a line from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_Afghanistan> . Pakistan faces various hurdles with this option, which include the security situation in Afghanistan and the price Turkmenistan would charge for the natural gas. In addition, completed feasibility studies on the project, funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), indicate that the Turkmenistan field of Daulatabad will only be able to supply a portion of the natural gas needed by Pakistan.
In addition to natural gas import pipelines, Pakistan is pursuing liquefied natural gas (LNG) import options to meet energy needs. In October 2006, United Arab Emirates-based Dana Gas and its partners, Single Buoy Moorings and the Granada Group signed a MoU to build an LNG import facility, with 3.5 million tons per year capacity. The facility would be completed in 2010 and would be located at Port Qasim, near Karachi.
Coal currently plays a minor role in Pakistan's energy mix, although the country contains an estimated 3,362 million short tons (Mmst) of proven recoverable reserves. Pakistan produces small amounts of coal <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Coal> , 3.5 Mmst in 2004, and imports additional coal, 1.7 Mmst in 2004, to satisfy demand. Recently, the discovery of low-ash, low-sulfur lignite coal reserves in the Tharparkar (Thar) Desert in Sindh province, estimated at 1,929 Mmst, has increased both domestic and foreign development interest. China <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_China> , which began developing various electric power plants in tandem with the coal mines in 1994 in Pakistan, has shown the most interest in the Thar region. However, several factors have hindered development of the Thar coal reserves, including the depth and moisture level of the lignite reserves, a scarcity of fresh water, and lack of road and power infrastructure.
Pakistan had 20.4 gigawatts <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Watt> (GW) of installed electric generating capacity in 2004. Conventional thermal plants <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Fossil_fuel_power_plant> using oil, natural gas, and coal <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Coal> account for about 66 percent of Pakistan's capacity, with hydroelectricity making up 32 percent and nuclear 2 percent. The Pakistani government estimates that by 2010, Pakistan will have to increase its generating capacity by more than 50 percent to meet increasing demand. In 2004, Pakistan generated 80.2 billion kilowatt-hours <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Watt-hour> (Bkwh) of electricity while consuming 74.6 Bkwh. Pakistan's total power generating capacity has increased rapidly in recent years, due largely to foreign investment, leading to a partial alleviation of the power shortages Pakistan often faces in peak seasons. However, much of Pakistan's rural areas do not
have access to electric power and about half the population is not connected to the national grid. Rotating blackouts ("load shedding") are also necessary in some areas. In addition, transmission losses are about 30 percent, due to poor quality infrastructure and a significant amount of power theft.
The electric power sector in Pakistan is operated by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), and the Karachi Electricity Supply Corporation (KESC), with additional generation contribution from Independent (private) Power Producers (IPPs). WAPDA is responsible for supplying power to all of Pakistan, with the exception of Karachi, which is supplied by KESC. Currently, 15 IPPs operate in Pakistan under a Build-Own-Operate (BOO) basis. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) regulates the power sector in Pakistan, which includes power generation, transmission and distribution. NEPRA is also responsible for determining electricity rates in Pakistan.
The Pakistani government continues to seek reform in the state-held electric companies. In November 2005, the Privatization Commission in Pakistan sold KESC to Hassan Associates, a group of local and Saudi investors. KESC controls a power transmission network in the southern part of Karachi. Because KESC has struggled to make a profit, the Pakistani government has supported the company with a $200 million annual subsidy. But, Hassan Associates has indicated that they are confident in their ability to make a profit from KESC in the future. The Pakistani government will maintain a 26 percent share of the company. Plans have also been made to transform WAPDA into three generation companies, eight distribution companies and a transmission entity with the hope of seeing it privatized.
Hydroelectric power represents a third of Pakistan's power source, however, periodic droughts affect the availability of hydropower production. WAPDA controls the country's major hydroelectric plants, with the largest being the Tabela plant at 3,046 megawatts <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Watt> (MW) installed capacity. Although Pakistan has plans to develop additional hydroelectric generating capacity, infrastructure constraints, such as access roads in mountainous regions and resettlement costs of affected populations have stalled progress. Nevertheless, Eden Enterprises is going ahead with its Suki Kinari (655 MW) hydropower project. Eden Enterprises, along with Pakistani partners own 95 percent of S.K. Hydro, which was given a 35-50 year concession period for the power plant. Construction is expected to begin in 2009, with the plant coming online in 2011. The Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) is currently reviewing six additional hydropower projects for the Swat River. If approved, the projects would provide several hundred MW of additional hydroelectric power capacity to the country.
WAPDA operates the majority of thermal power plants <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Fossil_fuel_power_plant> in Pakistan, with over 5,000 MW <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Watt>† of installed capacity in its control. The Guddu plant is the largest plant operated by WAPDA, with a capacity of 1,650 MW. In recent years, growth in Pakistan's thermal power generation has come primarily from new independent power producers (IPPs), some of which have been funded by foreign investors. The two largest IPPs in Pakistan are Kot Addu (1,600 MW) and Hubb River (1,300 MW), both of which supply power to WAPDA.
In Pakistani cities, widespread consumption of low-quality fuel, combined with a dramatic expansion in the number of vehicles on the roads, has led to significant air pollution <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Air_pollution_emissions> problems. Lead and carbon <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Carbon> emissions are major air pollutants in urban centers such as Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad. A lack of energy efficiency standards has contributed to Pakistan's high carbon dioxide <http://www.eoearth.org/article/Carbon_dioxide> intensity. One hopeful trend is that Pakistan has increasingly been using compressed natural gas (CNG) to fuel vehicles. Currently, government vehicles and taxis that have been using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are being converted to CNG.
The Electricity Providing organizations should be uplifted through evolving the productivity criteria.
The Rural and unplanned areas have fertile Energy Resources should be capitalized.
Energy Resources available should be efficiently utilized so as to get maximum benefits.
The new technologies ways and procedures adopted internationally should be critically analyzed for their practibility in Pakistan.
Private and public partnership in exploration of oil, gas and coal reserves in the country to meet energy demands
Renewed stress and active support to promote renewable energy resources in Pakistan.
The government must also actively promote energy efficiency and conservation.