SOURCE OF POWER GENERATION

AQEEL KHAN
June 11 - 17, 2007

CASE STUDY

Pakistan has significant oil, gas, coal, mineral (ore) deposits as well as solar and hydel potential. Among these, hydel power is the only renewable source of energy; the others being mainly fossil fuels. Hydel power is also the least expensive form of electricity. The country's has oil reserves of 310 million barrels, gas reserves of 750 BCM, coal reserves of 2.5 billion tons (potential and indicated reserves are much larger) and 27,000 MW of hydroelectric potential. Besides electricity large generating capacity of 19.5 GW, having a consumer base of 14.5 million nearly 40% of the population still has no access to electricity.

COMPARATIVE STUDY (TYPICAL MONTH)

Power outrage

WB

IMF

ADB

Villages

20 days

18 days

19 days

Small towns

15 days

13 days

14 days

REVIEW

Pakistan's main sources of electricity generation are hydel, oil, gas, coal and nuclear power. The total installed generation capacity of the country's power utilities (WAPDA, KESC, KANUPP, CHASNUPP-1 and IPP's) has remained trapped at about 19,500 MW for the last three years. Coal consumption during 2005-06 was: Brick kilns (54.7%), Cement and other industry (36.0%), Power (1.9%), Coke use (7.3%).

COAL - A PRIME FUEL

Coal -the black gold is found in all the four provinces of Pakistan. Pakistan's has emerged as one of the leading country - seventh in the list of top 20 countries of the world after the discovery of huge lignite coal resources in Sindh. Country's has huge coal resources, about 185 billion tons, out of which 3.3 billion tons are in proven/measured category and about 11 billions are indicated reserves, the bulk of it is found in Sindh province, which has enough to generate 100,000MW for the next 30 years. Pakistan's has also decided to enhance the share of coal in the over all energy mix from 5 per cent to 18 per cent up to 2018.

There are three countries in the world having reserves sufficient for next 250 years; Pakistan, India and China. Pakistan produces 3.2 million tonnes of coal every year, but local coal mines are not mechanised due to a lack of infrastructure, insufficient financing and absence of modern mining expertise. Miners have to go 500-1000 feet underground which increases cost of production as well as effecting labour productivity. To overcome that problem, Pakistan has imported a coal washing plant from UK, a cost of Rs 50 million has been set up at Dhabeji with a capacity to purify 2,000 tonnes per day. Three more plants are currently being installed in Punjab. Coal-washing plants ensure that the coal has fewer impurities, which reduces the production cost of cement industry.

COAL RESOURCES OF PAKISTAN

PROVINCE/ COAL FIELD

COAL RESOURCES (MILLION TONES)

TOTAL

MEASURED

INDICATED

INFERRED

HYPOTHETICAL

SINDH

Lakhra

244

629

455

--

1,328

Sonda-Thatta

60

511

2197

932

3,700

Jherruck

106

310

907

--

1,323

Others

82

303

1881

--

2266

Thar

3,407

10,323

81,725

80,051

175,506

Sub-Total

3,899

12,076

87,165

80,983

184,123

BALOCHISTAN

Khost-Sharig-Harnai

13

--

63

--

76

Sor-Range/Degari

15

--

19

16

50

Duki

14

11

25

--

50

Mach-Abegum

9

--

14

--

23

Pir Ismail Ziarat

2

2

8

--

12

Chamalong

1

--

5

--

6

Sub-Total

54

13

134

16

217

PUJNAB

Eastern Salt Range

21

16

2

145

235

Central Salt Range

29

--

--

   

Makerwal

5

8

9

   

Sub-Total

55

24

11

145

235

GRAND TOTAL

4,008

12,113

87,189

81,144

184,575

Sources: World Energy Book

HYDRO POWER

Pakistan's possesses the single renewable energy resources in abundance is hydropower, i.e. the most environment friendly, cheapest source of energy. It has a potential of 40,000MW, enough to secure the country's self-reliance in power, and hence its future economic progress, as well as transform Pakistan into a regional electricity exporter. Electricity demand was increasing at national level at the rate of about 1,000 MW per year, and projected a total demand that stands at 21,500 by the year 2010 and 36,358 MW by 2025. Pakistan is now faced with a most serious energy shortfall. The acute shortage of electricity has resulted in load shedding during the current summer season, costing the economy millions of rupees. To overcome on this problem the government has chalked out a 10-year plan, under which the share of hydroelectric power generation will be increased to 38 percent from 28 percent and the share of power generation will be decreased from 72 percent to 62 percent, by building hydroelectric power generation plants across the country.

IDENTIFIED SITES FOR HYDROPOWER PROJECTS

PROVINCE/AREA

ECONOMICALLY EXPLOITABLE AND FEASIBLE (SOLICITED SCHEMES)

TECHNICALLY EXPLOITABLE CAPABILITY (RAW SITES)

TOTAL PROJECTS

 

NUMBERS

MW

NUMBERS

MW

NUMBERS

MW

Punjab

8

32.17

306

349.65

314

381.82

Sindh

2

48.50

3

48.55

5

98.05

NWFP

7

143.90

78

426.41

85

570.31

Northern area

3

71.50

136

814.00

139

885.50

AJK

3

53.00

24

177.00

27

230.00

Grand Total

23

350.07

547

1,815,61

570

2165.8

WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY

The government is looking for power generation from all possible sources, including wind energy, and the country produced with collaboration of Canada 100 megawatt wind energy since June 2006. The government's main focus to provide cheaper electricity to the people of remote villages through wind and solar generating projects of these areas and 500-600MW power generating capacity will be installed by 2007.

OUTLAY AND GROWTH

Germany, Holland and China plan to invest in Pakistan in wind energy projects, for a total capacity of above 1,000 mw. In this manner, China can transfer their technologies to enable Pakistan speedily overcome the power shortage that is slow down its growth potential. China has already procured and installed 14 wind power turbines of 300 and 500-watt capacity, in coastal areas of Sindh and Balochistan. The Government of Pakistan has planned to set up wind energy projects through the private sector to generate 700 megawatts by 2010, 1,700 megawatts by 2015 and 9,700 megawatts by 2030.

BENEFITS OF WIND ENERGY

Wind energy is an ideal renewable energy because it is a pollution-free, infinitely sustainable form of energy; it doesn't require fuel and also is extremely green. It doesn't create greenhouse gases, produce toxic or radioactive waste.

OUTLAY IN FDI

The performance of FDI's, during the current fiscal year has been beyond hope. FDI Inflow during July 06 to March 07 has recorded $3,859.1 million as compared to $2,242.7 million during the same period of last year registered a phenomenal growth of 72%. In power sector, the share of power sector in total FDI's during July 06 to Mar 07 has recorded 3.20% i.e. $125.1 million as compared to July 05 to March 06, it was recorded $304 million decline of 58.88 per cent. UAE, USA, UK, Saudi Arabia, Korean and Japan have shown keen interest to invest in Pakistan and in the next five years, billions of dollars would be invested in country's power sector.

FDI IN POWER SECTOR

YEAR

MILLION $

TOTAL %AGE OF FDI

July 06-Mar 07

125.1

3.20

2005-06

320.6

9.10

2004-05

73.3

4.80

2003-04

-14.2

-1.50

2002-03

32.8

4.11

2001-02

36.1

7.45

Sources: Board of Investment

 


ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

SOURCES

WORLDWIDE (%)

PAKISTAN (%)

Coal

40.00

6.50

Gas

19.00

45.00

Nuclear

16.00

2.50

Hydro

16.00

33.00

Oil

7.00

16.00

Sources: World Bank