DECLINE TREND OF RICE CROPPED AREA

Sindh registered higher trend of negative growth

By JAHANGIR A. RIND* & HINA SAMREEN**
Oct 18 - 24, 2004

The economy of Pakistan is still largely based on agriculture. About 23.3 per cent of the GDP is generated in the farming sector. It accounts for 5.4 percent of value-added in agriculture and 1.3 percent of GDP. Pakistan ranked 3rd in terms of yield among leading rice producing countries and 11th in the world in 2002.

Rice is not a staple diet but its consumption is increasing slowly as compared to wheat. Production of rice during 2003-2004 is provisionally estimated at 4,848 thousands tonnes. About 60 percent crop is destined for local use and rest is exported. Still grade and standard as required globally is not maintained. Major portion of broken rice is used in the poultry feed annually.

Unlike in other South and South-east Asian countries, rice is not considered a subsistence crop in Pakistan. It is a cash crop grown for export. Rice is the third major crop, after wheat and cotton.

Pakistan exports about two million tonnes of rice, which is about 10 per cent of the world rice trade. The export of long grained, aromatic, fine quality rice (called Basmati) goes mainly to Middle East market, while long grain non-aromatic rice are exported each year to South and South-east Asia. Rice is easiest to digest then wheat, barley, corn, or other staple diet. Children, aged people, the sick, and the weak all prefer rice, as it is best for them. It contains proteins, starch, salt, and fiber, which are the need of human body. Rice also contains vitamins B, E and G.

GLOBAL POSITION

In 1999-2000 world produced 586,787 thousands tons of rice. Major rice growing countries are India, China, Bangladesh, Thailand, Burma, Philippine, Japan, Pakistan, USA, Indonesia Korea and Vietnam. Rice consumption is also rising in many countries of near east, West Africa, and Latin America. Out of fifteen countries growing rice, only two are outside Asia. China and India account for about 50% of the world's rice area and 56% of production. Bangladesh, Indonesia and Thailand each have rice production areas greater than the total for Latin

World rice trade is around 25 million tons. The exporters are Thailand, India, Vietnam, United States, China, Burma, Pakistan Uruguay, Australia, Egypt, and EU house holds in Asia, Africa and the America depend on rice. According to Dr Jacquce Diouf director general of the United Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) rice is the staple diet of over half of humanity that lives on the planet.

TABLE 1
ACTUAL AREA SOWN, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF RICE CROP IN PAKISTAN

Year

Area in 000 hectares

Production in (000) tonnes

Yield per in kg per hectare

 

Basmati

Irri 6

Total

Basmati

Irri-6

Total

Basmati

Irri-6

Total

90-91

1120

993

2113

1220

2041

3261

1089

2055

3144

91-92

1066

1031

2097

1092

2151

3243

1025

2086

3111

92-93

1035

938

1973

1124

1992

3116

1086

2123

3209

93-94

1104

1084

2188

1267

2728

3995

1147

2518

3665

94-95

1145

779

1924

1352

2095

3447

1180

2139

3319

95-96

1148

1014

2162

1488

2479

3967

1296

2445

3714

96-97

1174

1077

2251

1564

2741

4305

1332

2545

3877

97-98

1106

1112

2218

1439

2894

4333

1301

2603

3904

98-99

1216

1208

2424

1687

2987

4674

1387

2473

3860

99-00

1247

1270

2517

1764

3392

5156

1415

2675

4090

00-01

1158

1219

2377

1701

3102

4803

1468

553

2021

01-02

1332

782

2114

1999

1883

3882

1501

335

1836

02-03

1377

848

2225

1942

2536

4478

1673

340

2013

Source: Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan 2002-2003 Ministry of Food, Agriculture & Live Stock.

To Convert Yield Into Mnds/ Acre Divide By The Factor 92.2313

The simple analysis shows that the increase in production is due to increase in area and productivity, but area contributed more than productivity. The area in 13 years increases year by year and was 2,517 thousands hectares in the year 1999-2000, then slowed down and was 2,225 thousands in 2002-2003.

Similarly the production increases yearly bases and was maximum 5,156 thousands tonnes in the year 1999-2000.

The yield per hectare was highest in the history of Pakistan in 1999-2000. The production and yields both have slowed down. To analyze province wise position the information regarding actual area sown, production and yield per hectare collected and tabulated in the table 2.

The data pertain to actual area sown, production and yield per hectare for 1990-91 to 2002-03. The purpose of this study was to ascertain province wise trend of rice cropped area, production and productivity in Pakistan. Thus details of Province wise actual area sown, production and yield per hectare from 1990-91 to 2002-2003 placed in table 2.

TABLE NO 2
AREA IN 000 HECTARE

YEAR

PUNJAB

SINDH

NWFP

BALOCHISTAN

PAKISTN

1990-91

1261.8

679.9

62.3

108.7

2112.7

1991-92

1231.4

692.4

63.1

110.0

2096.9

1992-93

1221.7

568.8

62.1

120.1

1973.4

1993-94

1306.6

702.9

62.7

120.9

2187.1

1994-95

1338.7

598.3

63.3

124.3

2125.6

1995-96

1327.8

642.3

63.7

128.7

2161.8

1996-97

1354.5

701.8

64.7

130.1

2251.1

1997-98

1409.9

689.3

66.8

151.3

2317.3

1998-99

1492.9

704.1

68.2

158.4

2423.6

1999-00

1609.4

690.4

67.1

148.5

2515.4

2000-01

1627.2

540.1

66.4

142.9

2376.6

2001-2002

1475.9

461.1

60.7

116.5

2114.2

2002-2003

1512.3

488.3

61.0

163.6

2225.2

PRODUCTION IN 000 TONNES

1990-91

1422.3

1433.4

118.0

287.1

3260.8

1991-92

1342.2

1487.5

123.0

290.4

3243.1

1992-93

1403.0

1272.8

111.9

327.5

3116.1

1993-94

1588.2

1954.9

118.4

333.2

3994.7

1994-95

1684.0

1405.7

118.2

237.6

3446.5

1995-96

1803.0

1697.2

118.2

348.1

3966.5

1996-97

1864.0

1961.5

123.5

355.8

4304.8

1997-98

1948.0

1840.9

130.2

413.9

4333.0

1998-99

2176.0

1930.0

133.6

433.9

4673.8

1999-00

2481.0

2133.0

129.6

422.4

5155.6

2000-01

2577.0

1682.3

131.2

412.1

4802.6

2001-02

2266.0

1159.1

121.7

335.2

3882.0

2002-03

2579.7

1299.7

131.7

467.4

4478.5

YIELD PER HECTARE IN KGS

1990-91

1089

2148

1949

2640

1546

1991-92

1221

2781

1888

2756

1826

1992-93

1257

2351

1867

1911

1622

1993-94

1171

2330

1880

2526

1626

1994-95

1257

2351

1867

1911

1622

1995-96

1358

2652

1856

2720

1835

1996-97

1376

2794

1908

2734

1912

1997-98

1382

2671

1950

2735

1870

1998-99

1458

2472

1959

2739

1928

1999-00

1541

3075

1925

2844

2050

2000-01

1584

3115

1976

2884

2021

2001-02

1536

2514

2005

2877

1836

2002-03

1706

2662

2159

2857

2013

To Convert Yield Into Mnds/ Acre Divide By The Factor 92.2313

TREND OF RICE CROPPED AREA, PRODUCTION PRODUCTIVITY.

METHODOLOGY

A forecast is a prediction of what will be occur in future. There are two general methods that reflect these factors, time series analysis and regressions. Time series methods are statistical techniques, which compute solely from historical data, accumulated over period of time. Fore study of trend of area, production and productivity of rice from 1990-1991 to 2010 is used. Let the equation of the linear trend be

Y= a+bX, where

Y is a dependent variable. In this study area, production and productivity are dependent variable, a is intercept and b is slope coefficient. Where X is explanatory variable. Since the number of years in the data is odd, we can assign X=0 to the middle year, and X= 1,2,3,4,5,6 to the successive years and X= -1,-2,-3,-4,-5,-6 to the preceding years.

Where a and b can be estimated by using following two equations;

a = Y / n
b= XY
/ X2
Where n is the number of observation in the data.

We compute growth of all three variables (area, production and productivity) province wise. The formula for growth is

G = [(Y - Ye) / Y] *100
Where G is the growth
Y = Actual area sown, actual production and yield per hectare
Ye = trend values for area, production and productivity or yield per hectare.

RESULTS

All computation is made in E_VIEWS package. The average trend of growth tabulated in table 3.

TABLE 3

Province

TREND OF GROWTH AREA

TREND OF GROWTH RATE PRODUCTION

TREND OF GROWTH RATE YIELD PER HECTARE

Sindh

-1.408

-3.578

-0.7713

Punjab

-0.1632

-0.2906

-0.1032

NWFP

-0.1264

-0.1732

-0.075

Balochistan

-0.8942

-2.433

-1.66

SOURCE: CASTED FROM THE RESULTS

The Sindh province registered high trend of negative growth i.e. -1.408 in area, -3.578 for production, and -0.7713 for yield per hectare.

The Punjab province also follows the same trend but its area has -0.1632, production -0.2906 and productivity -0.1032 in my opinion it is due to under ground water which is fit for irrigation. The same is utilized in rice area through tube wells.

The NWFP and Balochistan no doubts affected but less in comparison to Sindh and Punjab maximum negative trend is in Sindh province where area, production and productivity have higher negative growth. Larkana, Jacobabad, Shikarpur, Dadu, Badin and Thatta are the main affected districts. The area and production of all above mention districts as per report of Directorate of Agriculture Extension Sindh, Hyderabad have reduced to unreasonable level.

There may be two possible reasons, first, shifting to some other crop, second, quitting cultivation due to shortage of irrigation. The issue of shifting to other crop examined by analysising data of all Kharief crops sown in corresponding years. Table 3 show actual area sown of Kharief crops from 1998-99 to 2001-2002.

Table No 3
ACTUAL AREA IN 000 HECTARES OF MAJOR KHARIEF CROPS IN SINDH 1998-99 TO 2001-2002

YEAR

RICE

SUGARCANE

JOWER

BAJRA

MAIZE

SEASUM

1998-99

704.1

270.8

110.3

175.0

10.5

2.2

1999-00

690.4

230.6

91.1

18.0

8.6

0.6

2000-01

540.1

238.8

87.2

80.5

7.7

1.5

2001-02

461.1

240.7

89.2

100.3

5.5

2.5

Source: Directorate of Agriculture Extension Sindh, Hyderabad.

The figures of sugarcane, jowar, bajra maize and seasum from 1998-99 to 2002 in table 3 have not shown any increase in areas of these crops. But decrease in areas of all crops confirms that farming community has not shifted to other Kharif crops. Thus decrease in area in Sindh is due to shortage of irrigation. The shortage of irrigation coupled with low per acre return from this crop compelled farming community to quit cultivation of this crop.

The uncertainties of irrigation have developed high degree of variability in crop production. The farmers are not in position of making alternate arrangement of short supply of water. The under ground water is brackish and unfit for cultivation. The situation is very serious and year-by-year it is worsening.

In last 55 years an average decrease in the water resources had been witnesses to the extent of 80 percent. There are several months when no water released from downstream Kotri that had seriously affected people and ecosystem. The shortage of irrigation water is partly natural and partly manipulated. Drought and less snowfall in Himalayas are the natural causes. The other cause, which has made this water shortage from worse to worst, is delay in construction of water reservoirs. Unfortunately, a lot of time has been wasted in unproductive controversies over the construction of the Kalabagh dam as well as Bhasha dam. These controversies are rooted in a long history of mistrust. If the position of shortage of irrigation remained same, we have assessed future area by forecasting method for Sindh province see table 4.

Table 4
FORE CAST OF RICE CROPPED AREA BY USING REGRESSION METHOD FROM 2004-2010

Year

Area in 000 hectare

2004-2005

530.974

2005-2006

516.887

2006-2007

506.217

2007-2008

494.482

2008-2009

482.625

2009-2010

470.53

Source: Casted from result's data.

CONCLUSION

* In Sindh 's rice growing tract, no other cropping is more feasible.
* Rice growers in Sindh are categorized under subsistence farming, quitting cultivation certainly increase rural poverty.
* Further delay in construction of water reservoirs will also hit cropped area of other crops. It is therefore, necessary to construct water reservoirs as early as possible.
*Independent -Researcher, **Student of MAS/M Phil Economics AERC Karachi