TRADE DEFICIT INCREASES BY 39 PER CENT

 

An analysis of commodity wise export

From YOUSAF RAFIQ
Special Correspondent, Islamabad
Mar 06 - 12, 2000

PakistanÝs trade deficit during the first six months of the fiscal year 1999-2000 has registered an increase of 39 percent compared to the corresponding period of last year as it went up to $ 783 million from $ 564 million. Increases in trade deficit was witnessed due to higher imports of petroleum and petroleum products ie 81 percent as compared with the last correspondent year. The increase in petroleum crude was 69.3 percent which was due to higher unit prices by 81.5 percent despite decline in the volume by 6.7 percent.

However the imports of petroleum products increased by 85.8 percent due to both increase in unit price and volume by 60 percent and 16.1 percent respectively.

The exports as ratio of import also declined to 84 percent during July-December 1999-2000 from 87 percent during July December 1998-99. Export trend of July-December 1999-2000 is encouraging when compared with the same period of last year. During July-December export increased to $ 4103 million from $ 3819 million during the same corresponding year, registering an increase of 7.4 percent. Export of almost all textile items have shown increasing tend except towels and cotton bags and sacks. The export of raw cotton has also increased by 416.7 percent . This increase is due to export of higher quality despite decrease in unit value of the item in the international market. Carpets have shown increasing trend in the export due to increase both in quality and unit value. Sports goods and surgical goods have also shown increasing tend in export during the period under review. Export of non traditional items like petroleum and petroleum production, onyx manufactured, chemical and pharmaceutical products and molasses have also shown increasing trend during the period under review. Sizeable increase has been witnessed in the export of food items like fruits, vegetables and fish, and fish products.

Sources said the MoC was of the view that overall position is encouraging in the sense that despite continuing decline in unit value quantities of almost all the major items like rice, raw cotton, cotton year, cotton cloth kitwear, bedwear, ready made garments, art silk , synthetic, textile , made up articles of textile and carpets have registered increase and the position is likely to improve further if there is a turn around in the unit value.

Sources said the MoC also analysied the commodity wise export figures as well PRIMARY COMMODITY: During the period under review export of primary commodities increased to $ 471.8 million from $ 426.8 million during the corresponding period of last year, registering an increase of 10.5 percent.

Sources said increase of primary commodities was due to higher export of rice 14.2 percent, raw cotton 416.7percen,t fish 20.3 percent gur and gur products 54.4. percent, fruits 14.4 percent and vegetable 32.4 percent. Whereas, sources added the export value of raw wool declined by ˝52.9 percent, leather -15.2 percent, crude animal material ˝14.9 percent and oilseed nuts kernals ˝60 percent.

Sources said decline in leather export can be attributed to continued recession in the international market and economic turmoil in the South East Asian countries. Because of the increasingly fierce competition in the international market, our export have inevitably achieved lower unit price realization. Decline in leather is also because of more conversion of leather tanned into manufactured goods sports gloves of leather and football etc and the rise in price of basic raw material and other imported inputs have raised the cost of production of tanned leather.

Textiles manufacturer:

Sources said as far as textiles group is concerned, impact of price decline was dominant . The export of textile manufactures amounted to $ 2683.1 million during July-December 1998-99 registering an increase of 7.6 percent. The export of cotton yarn , cotton cloth, knitwear, bed wear, ready made garments, tents, tarpaulian , tule lace embroidery, art silk and synthetic textile and made up articles increased despite decline in price. This increase is due to higher export in quantity . Export value of towels, cotton bags, and waste material textile fiber declined.

Other manufacturers:

Sources said it was disclosed during the meeting that the export of other manufacturers increased by 9.5 percent During July-December 1999-2000. The export of other manufacturers amount to $ 584 million as against $ 563 million during July-December 1998-99. The export of sports goods 6.9 percent surgical 9.1 percent, carpets 22.2 percent, petroleum products 141.4 percent, onyx manufactured 44.4 percent, chemical 44.1 percent and molasses 21.4 percent, thus registering an increase during July December 1999-2000 as compared to the correspondent period of last year.

Imports:

Sources said the commerce ministry claimed that during July-December 1999-2000 imports increased by 11.5 percent amounted to $ 4885.8 million from $ 4383 million in the correspondence period of last year. The increase was witnessed due to higher imports of petroleum and petroleum products i.e 81 percent as compared to last year .The increase in petroleum crude was 69.3 percent, which was due to higher unit prices by 81.5 percent despite decline in the volume by 6.7 percent.

Commoty wise analysis of imprts

FOOD GROUP: The import of food group decreased to $ 523.9 million during July December 1999-2000 from $809 million during the corresponding period of last year showing a decrase of 35.3 percent. This decline was mainly due to fall in the import of wheat 6.4 percent, tea 22.2 percent, soybean oil ˝56.9 percent and palm oil ˝53 percent, sugar ˝75 percent and pulses ˝13.4 percent.

Machinery group.

The import of machinery group declined by 5.5 percent to $ 925 million from $ 980 million in 1998-99. Major decline has been observed in the import of power generating machinery ˝44.9 percent textile machinery ˝13.4 percent, construction machinery ˝41.2 percent and electric machinery ˝10.4 percent. However, sources said the import of office machinery and agricultural machinery indicated an increase of 4.4 percent and 58.3 percent during the period under review.

Petroleum group:

Import of petroleum crude and petroleum products also increased to $ 1200 million during July-December 1999-2000 from $ 664.9 million in the corresponding period of last year showing an increase of 8.6 percent. The increase was witnessed due to higher mports of petroleum and petroleum products ie 80.6 percent as compared to last year. The increase in petroleum crude was 69.3 percent which was due to higher unit price by 81.5 percent. Despite decline in the volume by 6.7 percent. However, the import of petroleum products increased by 85.8 percent due to both increase in unit price and volume by 60 percent and 16.1 percent respectively.

Textile group:

Import of textile groups declined to $ 78.2 million during July-December 1999-2000 from $ 842 million in the corresponding period of last year showing an decrease of 7.1 percent. This decline is due to sharp fall in the prices of synthetic fiber ˝22 percent. The increase in import of synthtic and artificial silk yarn by 21.2 percent and worn clothing by 8.5 percent during July December 1999-2000 as compared to July December 1998-1999.

Chemcial group:

The import of chemical group increased by 3 percent to $ 952 million in 1999-2000 from $ 925 million in the corresponding period. Import value of insecticides increased by 10 percent due to higher quantity imported and unit value during July-December 1999-2000 as compared to last year period. Import of plastic material also increased by 1.2 percent due to increase in unit value despite decline in quantity during the period under review

Metal group:

Import of metal group increased to $ 182.6 million during July-December 1999-2000 from $ 168.8 million of the same period of last year showing an increase of 8.2 percent. The increase was due to higher import of iron and steel 9.4 percent and aluminum wrought and worked 2.2 percent.

Miscellenaous group:

Import of miscellaneous group decreased to $ 124.1 million during July-December 1999-2000 from $ 126.8 million of last year showing a decline of 2.1 percent.