There was a serious imbalance in Pakistan's energy
mix which highlights a major dependence on gas at over 50% today,
compared to 43% five years ago. The current pattern of energy
utilization is likely to be the case in the foreseeable future.
Unlike Pakistan, the energy mix in developed
markets like the UK, USA and Canada was much more balanced. The
government in Pakistan was, however, keen to utilize coal as well as
nuclear and other fuel options for balancing the sharp tilt towards
This was pointed out by Munawar Baseer Ahmad,
Managing Director SSGC at a seminar organized by Pakistan Institute of
Petroleum (PIP) to review Pakistan's National Energy Plan that has
been developed by a team of oil & gas industry experts, mandated
by OCAC (Oil Companies Advisory Committee) & PIP. ENAR Petrotech
served as consultants on the project.
Speaking about the way forward for Pakistan in the
context of energy planning for economic growth, he also presented a
regional energy overview to discern the energy consumption pattern in
Pakistan and rest of the countries in the region.
Munawar Baseer pointed out how Pakistan's per
capita consumption of energy at 14MBTU fared poorly in comparison with
regional markets, and the developed world. Although India and Pakistan
were in a similar state, Malaysia consumes more than twice the energy,
China five times and the UK more than 12 times. He pointed out that
even the energy utilization in Pakistan was much less efficient at
31MBTU, than the world average of 13MBTU.
Dwelling on the world oil & gas reserves versus
production, he pointed out that huge reserves of gas were known to
exist in the Middle East, in Qatar and Iran, in close proximity to
Pakistan. As a country, however, Russia held the largest reserves and
produced the most gas.
He discussed the key aspects of Pakistan's
integrated energy plan and the importance of human resource
development, R&D, environmental conservation and control of
emissions to meet the Kyoto protocol, the need to focus on renewable
energy, phased increase in nuclear power and social objectives such as
rural development and job creation.
Explaining the objectives of SSGC's LNG import
project he stated that a strategic alternative import channel for gas
was essential for providing energy security at the right prices i.e.
lower than HSFO and in volumes that could meet market needs. He said
at least 300 mmcfd natural gas was required to meet the growing needs
of IPP's, KESC, WAPDA and new industrial projects such as steel mills,
textile city, cement and fertilizer plants in Karachi alone.
He emphasized that the proposed regional pipeline
projects linked with Qatar, Iran and Turkmenistan were an essential
component of Pakistan's long-term energy plan, but LNG was
indispensable for meeting the short to medium-term needs of the
country. He closed his presentation on the vision that given the right
policy support and direction Pakistan could become the regional energy
hub for LNG, and invited all OCAC/PIP members to come together to
ensure Pakistan's energy security, sovereignty and sustainability.
The seminar was addressed by oil & gas industry
experts who covered historical evaluation of Pakistan's supply and
demand of energy resources and options for the future within the
framework of regional and global developments.
Sajid Pervaiz, GM Corporate & Business
Development, ENAR Petrotech explained to the audience, the methodology
used in preparing the energy demand and supply forecast over a
fifteen-year period, from 2005 to 2020. He explained how demand was
calculated at primary and secondary levels and on a sector-wise basis.
He also explained the use of econometric models, correlating them with
relevant micro and macro-economic variables.
Saleem Piracha, GM Business Strategy for Shell
Pakistan Ltd. presented an analysis of forecast of demand in terms of
direct energy, energy for power generation and the resultant feedstock
and losses status. He also pointed out that power plants were, by far,
the largest sector consuming energy today, and the scenario was
unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. Piracha went over the
expected fuel-wise demand pattern for the key sectors i.e.
residential, commercial, industrial, agriculture and transportation.
He also reviewed the estimates for total energy demand, based on
moderate as well as optimistic growth scenarios.
Shaukat Channah, Commercial Manager, ENI Pakistan
Ltd. spoke at length on the development of oil & gas resources in
Pakistan. He also identified the gaps between energy supply at 60 MTOE
and demand at 93 MTOE forecast for the year 2020. He stressed the need
to accelerate development of oil & gas exploration and enhance
production, partly through utilization of indigenous energy sources
and partly by pursuing other secure and viable options. He dwelled on
the key drivers of E&P business, and factors that would encourage
investments in the area.
Channa also stated that government ministries and
agencies need to expedite the approvals process and also emphasized
that a pipeline investment policy was urgently required. He also
talked at some length on the importance of accessibility, law and
order, sovereign guarantees in case of the post-privatization scenario
for gas, incentives and infrastructure requirements for exploration
and production of oil & gas.
The new Chairman of PIP, Shahid Hak, MD PARCO
closed the session pointing out the need for developing Pakistan's
human capital, in specific trades and areas of specialization within
oil & gas. He emphasized the need to hold such seminars more often
in order to create greater awareness and for using them to provide
technical guidelines to policy-makers in the government.