CAPITAL MARKETS

 

1- FOREX KERB WATCH

2- COT WEEKLY REVIEW

3- FINEX WEEK

4. STOCK WATCH
5. STOCK MARKET AT A GLANCE


STOCK WATCH


By SHABBIR H. KAZMI
Updated Mar 19, 2005

 

 

The local automobile sector has been one of the fastest growing sectors in the country during the current year. It has a weight of 3.96% in large scale manufacturing and hence helps overall GDP growth. This growth can be called the reflection of the growing economic activities and unprecedented involvement of different financial institutions in car financing with low interest rates. According to the latest available statistics, auto assemblers sold 75,500 cars in July-February as compared to 59,100 units in the same period last year, representing a growth of 27.8%. Moreover, total car production soared by 25% from 59,500 units to 74,000 units. February 2005 was a good month for local car manufacturers, as compared to January 2005, in which 9,700 units were sold and 9,900 units were produced compared to 7,500 and 8,800. Pak Suzuki, the largest car producer in the country and market leader in 800cc cars, sold 42,400 units during the period under review compared to 35,600 units sold during the same period last year. Different variants of Honda Civic, one of the cars, which has witnessed significant growth showed an increase in sales of 105% from 3,600 units to 7,300. While City's sales also improved by 36% from 4,500 units to 6,100 units. Sales of Indus Motors improved by 25%, from 16,700 units to 20,200 units. Amongst the total sales, Corolla sales were 12,400 units, while Cuore's sales improved to 5,500 units.

Reportedly, the Bank of Punjab has given a go ahead to the establishment of an asset management company to take over a major portion of the state run NIT, and will be responsible for handling that part of NIT's portfolio. At present, Bank of Punjab holds 151 million NIT units. As part of the privatization drive, government is trying to privatize NIT and in this respect, it has received a proposal to divide NIT into five major portions and hand over three portions to its major unit holders and sell off the remaining two portions. The other two major unit holders of NIT are National Bank of Pakistan with 350 million units and Faysal Bank with 157 million units.

The Oil Companies Advisory Committee has announced the increase in the prices of different oil products in its fortnightly meeting held on 15th March. The prices have been raised to pass on the impact of rising international oil prices and increasing freight element. This raise in prices is very much in line with recent government's decision to recover PDL revenue lost due to capping of prices in the first half of this fiscal year. There would be two-way impact on oil marketing companies from this price rise (1) inventory gains and (2) realization of higher absolute margins because margins of oil marketing companies are fixed as a percentage of retail prices.

The management of Karachi Stock Exchange on Tuesday announced the much-awaited re-composition of KSE-100 index. The re-composition would add a total of Rs229 billion in the index. As per KSE management's statement, the recomposed index would better represent the market, as it would reflect approximately 89% market capitalization of the whole market. However, in terms of representation of the whole economy the index would be a bad indicator as only three exploration and & production companies Oil and Gas Development Company, Pakistan Petroleum and Pakistan Oilfields would have an approximately 42.5% weight age in the index. The E&P companies with PTCL would account for 60% of the index. The incoming companies include Pakistan Petroleum, Bank Alfalah, Jahangir Siddiqui Investment Bank and Dawood Lawrencepur. The outgoing companies include Southern Electric Power Company, Rafan Bestfoods, Tripack Films and Dewan Farooque Motors.

The Privatization Commission has pre-qualified eight parties unconditionally for PTCL sell off. These include (1) SingTel of Singapore (2) Emirates Telecommunication Corporation, (3) Telecom Malaysia (4) Mobile Telecommunication Company of Kuwait, (5) Saudi Oger, (6) Turkcell (7) China Mobile Communication Corporation and (8) Saudi Telecom Company. A total of 14 parties had submitted Expression of Interest while 13 parties submitted Statement of Qualification. The government intends to sell 26% stake in the PTCL along with transfer of management control. The close of this transaction is targeted for June this year.

A total of 11 parties have been pre-qualified for National Refinery strategic sell off. The parties include (1) Al Ghurair Investment, (2) Attock Oil Group, (3) Crescent Steel and Allied Product consortium, (4) Fauji Foundation, (5) Gharibwal Cement Consortium, (6) GM Capital Consortium including National Refinery Employee Trust, (7) Gul Ahmed Group, (8) KPC Holding (9) Lukoil International Trading and Supply Company, (10) Orient Petroleum and (11) Pakistan Refinery. The higher number of parties would enable the government in fetching a competitive price in the final bidding.

 

 

Since January 2005, oil sector has been at the forefront of a 54% index run-up. Amongst OMCs, PSO (domestic oil price revisions and privatization progress) and new-entrant Attock Petroleum (speculative squeeze over small free float) have been in limelight. Amongst all this euphoria, Shell Pakistan has sharply under performed both its peers and the broader market. The share is being traded to its peers and looks attractive at current levels. Strong demand for white oil products and lubricants, plus positive outlook on domestic oil prices should continue to drive earnings growth.

Company

High

Low

Closing

Week's Turnover

Oil&Gas Dev.

189.75

167.90

167.90

668,996,900

Pak.PTA Ltd.

15.75

13.05

14.80

401,991,000

P.T.C.L.A

88.15

83.65

86.00

192,555,000

Fauji Fert Bin

40.70

35.05

35.05

184,291,000

National Bank

161.75

145.35

145.35

162,125,500

B.O.Punjab

109.80

94.35

94.35

52,956,500

Pak Oilfields

346.50

311.00

311.00

47,471,900

Pak PetroleumXD

314.90

273.00

273.00

30,532,000

Bank Alfalah Ltd

57.35

49.65

52.25

18,340,000

Adamjee Ins.

93.40

86.60

93.40

7,783,400