Sep 27 - Oct 03, 2004






currently associated with Live Securities (Pvt.) Limited as the Head of the Research Department. Carrying an extensive exposure to his professional credit, Tariq has a discerning taste and a keen insight of the capital market in Pakistan. He is responsible to provide research analysis to group management and clients which includes morning talks, technical talks, evening talks and special talks which he is discharging single handedly.

Prior to his joining with the Live Securities, he was associated with First Capital Equities Limited as a research analyst. He specializes in conducting research analysis in Automobile, Textile and Cement sectors besides other active players of the market.

During his professional activities, he also remained associated with Jehangir Siddiqui and Co as Financial Analyst.

Tariq also remained a team member for preparing Initial Public Offerings of a number of units including Bestway Cement, the largest cement factory in Pakistan, providing advisory recommendations on the sale of BeBe Jan Chicken process unit, Gulistan Textile Mills Ltd. He was a team member in the Consortium led by Arthur Andersen, USA, mandated by the Asian Development Bank to advise the Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan to implement capital reforms. His research work is available at www.livesecurities.com

PAGE: We are meeting at a time when the Stock Market was passing through a critical point of time especially in view of the constantly declining trend persisting for quite sometimes, would you like to point out the factors which are affecting the performance of the bourses?

TARIQ: Besides other factors active behind the current low developed in the capital market, there is a convention trend that prior to the Holy Month of Ramazan, the market goes through such depressions. In continuation of the current trend it might dip further to the level of 4700 points to complete the cycle.

Despite the fact that the CVT and Withholding tax issue was resolved yet it has its own impact on the market as the increasing cost of the transactions.

Other factors, which are instrumental in the current decline trend, can be the increasing interest rate, changing exchange rates, WTO rules that are to be effective from 1st of January 2005. Of course the on going political tussle between the government and the opposition over the issue of uniform all have their impact. Actually, the market has gone through a period, which was full of significant events such as WANA operations in the North of the country. In fact, these issues were more serious in nature as compared to the Kargil event when the market had experienced the worst kind of breakdown. However, despite experiencing more serious issues the market had braved all these events, which shows the strength of the market, which has been developed, in the recent years. The market will, however, take a rebound after completion of the current cycle and hopefully may regain rather improve even to 6000 points in future.



PAGE: The share market has grown to an unprecedented height during last three years when KSE-100 index broke the psychological barrier of 5000 point. How would you describe this growth demand in Pakistan?

TARIQ: Actually, the height attained by the capital market during recent years, can be described as a pre-amble of the real scene which has yet to emerge on the economic map of the country. You see the present performance of the market when it cross the 5000 point was the reflection of the economic policies and decisions of the present government. The market has gained such an impressive strength merely on announcement of the good policies and decision, and the market has yet to grow more especially when the economic reforms were fully implemented and the benefits of these reforms start reaching to the common man. Hopefully, it may even hit the mark of 7000 points as soon as the features of the reforms become clearly visible.

PAGE: Would you like to elaborate your point of view regarding results of the economic reforms introduced by the present government?

TARIQ: Some of the economic reforms on the agenda of the present government may have far reaching effects on the national economy if they are translated into concrete form. For example, the present team of the economic managers eyeing for an 8 percent GDP growth, and the construction of different projects of national importance such as construction of inter-provincial road and highways network, completion of Gwadar Port in Balochistan, Coal-based power generating units at Thar. Above all, the construction of the large dams like Kalabagh or Bhasha which are of vital importance for our agriculture and basic needs of the society. These projects when become operative may assume the role as of the lifeline for the economy in Pakistan. Let these projects become operative, the sky will be the limit for the capital market in Pakistan. However, the market has the strength that it may touch the mark of 7000 points in 2005.