TARIQ HUSSAIN KHAN,
associated with Live Securities (Pvt.) Limited as the Head of the
Research Department. Carrying an extensive exposure to his professional
credit, Tariq has a discerning taste and a keen insight of the capital
market in Pakistan. He is responsible to provide research analysis to
group management and clients which includes morning talks, technical
talks, evening talks and special talks which he is discharging single
Prior to his joining with the Live Securities, he was
associated with First Capital Equities Limited as a research analyst. He
specializes in conducting research analysis in Automobile, Textile and
Cement sectors besides other active players of the market.
During his professional activities, he also remained
associated with Jehangir Siddiqui and Co as Financial Analyst.
Tariq also remained a team member for preparing
Initial Public Offerings of a number of units including Bestway Cement,
the largest cement factory in Pakistan, providing advisory
recommendations on the sale of BeBe Jan Chicken process unit, Gulistan
Textile Mills Ltd. He was a team member in the Consortium led by Arthur
Andersen, USA, mandated by the Asian Development Bank to advise the
Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan to implement capital
reforms. His research work is available at www.livesecurities.com
We are meeting at a time when the Stock Market was passing through a
critical point of time especially in view of the constantly declining
trend persisting for quite sometimes, would you like to point out the
factors which are affecting the performance of the bourses?
other factors active behind the current low developed in the capital
market, there is a convention trend that prior to the Holy Month of
Ramazan, the market goes through such depressions. In continuation of
the current trend it might dip further to the level of 4700 points to
complete the cycle.
Despite the fact that the CVT and Withholding tax
issue was resolved yet it has its own impact on the market as the
increasing cost of the transactions.
Other factors, which are instrumental in the current
decline trend, can be the increasing interest rate, changing exchange
rates, WTO rules that are to be effective from 1st of January 2005. Of
course the on going political tussle between the government and the
opposition over the issue of uniform all have their impact. Actually,
the market has gone through a period, which was full of significant
events such as WANA operations in the North of the country. In fact,
these issues were more serious in nature as compared to the Kargil event
when the market had experienced the worst kind of breakdown. However,
despite experiencing more serious issues the market had braved all these
events, which shows the strength of the market, which has been
developed, in the recent years. The market will, however, take a rebound
after completion of the current cycle and hopefully may regain rather
improve even to 6000 points in future.
share market has grown to an unprecedented height during last three
years when KSE-100 index broke the psychological barrier of 5000 point.
How would you describe this growth demand in Pakistan?
the height attained by the capital market during recent years, can be
described as a pre-amble of the real scene which has yet to emerge on
the economic map of the country. You see the present performance of the
market when it cross the 5000 point was the reflection of the economic
policies and decisions of the present government. The market has gained
such an impressive strength merely on announcement of the good policies
and decision, and the market has yet to grow more especially when the
economic reforms were fully implemented and the benefits of these
reforms start reaching to the common man. Hopefully, it may even hit the
mark of 7000 points as soon as the features of the reforms become
you like to elaborate your point of view regarding results of the
economic reforms introduced by the present government?
TARIQ: Some of
the economic reforms on the agenda of the present government may have
far reaching effects on the national economy if they are translated into
concrete form. For example, the present team of the economic managers
eyeing for an 8 percent GDP growth, and the construction of different
projects of national importance such as construction of inter-provincial
road and highways network, completion of Gwadar Port in Balochistan,
Coal-based power generating units at Thar. Above all, the construction
of the large dams like Kalabagh or Bhasha which are of vital importance
for our agriculture and basic needs of the society. These projects when
become operative may assume the role as of the lifeline for the economy
in Pakistan. Let these projects become operative, the sky will be the
limit for the capital market in Pakistan. However, the market has the
strength that it may touch the mark of 7000 points in 2005.