THE KASB REVIEW

STOCK MARKET AT A GLANCE

 

 

By SHABBIR H. KAZMI
Updated Oct 19, 2002

 

MARKET REVIEW: HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF

Maintaining its historical post election pattern, the KSE-100 Index rushed up to cross 2100 level during the week with average daily volumes of 149mn shares and closed at 2112 on Friday.

 

Withdrawal of Indian troops from the border also brightens the sentiments of the investors while anticipation of upcoming results of Fauji, Engro, PSO and Shell add up the fuel in the excitement. We are looking forward for another exciting week ahead with the same reasons behind, where investors may get profit booking opportunities, before moving ahead. Hubco, National Bank, Engro and PSO are likely to remain under the spot light.

THIS WEEK'S PERFORMANCE

Historically, if we look at post election market behaviour, the KSE100 Index has always witnessed huge rallies. This week was also not exceptional in that sense, though the market behaviour had more to do with the Shell related speculation and improving regional security situation. After testing a low of 2036 last week, the Index rallied up by almost 75 points, 4%, during the week to close at 2112 on Friday.

While the settling dust of election cleared the view to a certain extend, withdrawal of the Indian troops from the border also helped to brighten up the situation for the investors, during the week. On the other hand, the anticipation of upcoming results of fertilizer and oil sector companies, added fuel in the excitement. These reasons all together pushed the market across 2100, which according to our technical analyst is a good move, keeping longer-term perspective in mind.

OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING WEEK

With the result announcement days coming close for Engro, Fauji, PSO and Shell, the next week is expected to be exciting for the KSE-100 Index. According to our technical analyst, Index is likely to target 2200 this time where Hubco, National Bank, Engro, PTCL, PSO and MCB may remain under the lime light. While on the fundamental grounds, positive surprises from Engro and PSO may provide fuel in the share prices of these two stocks while building up position in Hubco is likely to be profitable. We advice investors to book profits in scrips like Shell and Fauji, which gained exceptionally high during the week and may lose their charm in the near term.

THE DAILY DRAMA

Rumour on PSO privatization depressed investors further on Monday, which led the Index to 1999 level. However, later that day after the clarification from the Ministry of Petroleum gave relief and index rallied up to close at 2039.

Further clarification from the election front lightened investors' sentiments and the market rallied up 23 points to close at 2062 level on Tuesday.

Increase in POL prices triggered bullish euphoria on the third day and oil sector scrips gained exceptionally and led the Index to close at 2082.

Further, the news of withdrawal of Indian troops from the border on Thursday led the Index to climb up to further ten points and the rally continued on Friday also.

The last day of the week was also quite exciting since the Index crossed the benchmark of 2100 eventually and closed up at 2111 for the week.

MARKET ROUNDUP

..

LAST WEEK

THIS WEEK

% CHANGE

Mkt. Cap (US $ bn)

7.89

8.17

3.55

Total Turnover (mn shares)

610.43

747.24

22.41

Value Traded (US$ mn.)

398.88

424.52

6.43

No. of Trading Sessions

4

5

 

Avg. Dly T/O (mn. Shares)

152.61

149.45

-2.07

Avg. Dly T/O (US$ mn)

99.72

84.90

-14.86

KSE 100 Index

2036.98

2111.73

3.67

KSE All Shares Index

1270.04

1320.1

3 3.94

Source: KSE, MSCI, KASB