THE KASB REVIEW

STOCK MARKET AT A GLANCE

 

 

By SHABBIR H. KAZMI
Updated Sep 28, 2002

 

This week was very eventful with two privatizations, a number of higher than expected dividend declarations, killings in Gujrat, attacks on Christians in Karachi and decline in PIB rates. In addition, announcement by the government of PSO's privatization by October 30,

 

expected BoD meeting of PTCL and a 27% dividend declaration, cancellation of PSO's RFO tender leading to a war of words between PSO and Wapda and US's assurance of increased economic support also impacted trading this week.

THIS WEEK'S PERFORMANCE

Both the bulls and the bears were fairly active this week. However, the much stronger bullish sentiment resulted in the KSE-100 rising by 1.92% to close the week at 2,019 points as against 1,981 points the week before. As trading was triggered by a number of positive and negative news, the Index fluctuated significantly during the week (2025-1979).

The stock of importance this week was PSO, which topped the list of most active shares of the week with a total volume of 130mn shares. PTCL also attracted considerable investor interest as a result of its impending BoD meeting next week.

The average daily volume rose to 137mn shares this week as compared to 90mn shares during the previous week, largely because of the contradictory sentiments prevailing in the market.

OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING WEEK

With the PTCL BoD meeting next week and the positive note at which the market closed on Friday, we expect the market to be largely positive next week. However, as was the case with this week, we expect considerable activity from both the bulls and the bears.

THE DAILY DRAMA

The KSE100 rose by 6 points to close at 1,987 on Monday, as investors covered their positions after news of the privatization of ICP lot 'A'. In addition to privatization the expected BoD meeting of PTCL and handsome dividends by a number of relatively less important scrips also helped to fuel the gains in the index. Trading volume fell to 96mn shares with PTCL and PSO leading the list of most actives.

News of possible privatization of PSO resulted in the Index to rise by 17 points to close Tuesday's trading at 2,004 points. The news that PSO would be privatized by October 30, 2002 led to considerable interest in the stock which triggered the index to breach the 2000 point barrier. As expected, PSO topped the list of most actives and the total volume for the day increased to 154mn shares.

On Wednesday, killings of Christian in Karachi and expectation of further unrest led to panic selling and as a result the Index declined to 1,995 points. Both the bulls and bears were fairly active, the former being fuelled by PSO impending privatization and higher than expected dividend declarations by a few scrips while the latter by international and domestic uncertainty. The market was thus very active and the volumes increased further to 169mn shares.

The bears were totally ousted by the bulls on Thursday, with institutional investors staging a rally because of which the Index rose by a phenomenal 19 points to close at 2,014 points. Expectation of major privatizations in the next few months was cited as the main reason for the bullish sentiment prevailing in the market. Volume declined marginally to 153mn shares.

Inspite of most industry experts expecting a technical correction on the last day of the week's trading, the Index rose by an additional 5 points on Friday to close at 2,019 points. The sentiment remained fairly bullish all day, with the Index reaching the day's peak of 2,025 points. PTCL and PSO were largely responsible for the upbeat feeling and were the most active shares of the day. The volume traded declined to 114mn shares.

MARKET ROUNDUP

..

LAST WEEK

THIS WEEK

% CHANGE

Mkt. Cap (US $ bn)

7.75

7.83

1.03

Total Turnover (mn shares)

452.05

684.89

51.51

Value Traded (US$ mn.)

412.47

668.68

62.12

No. of Trading Sessions

5

5

 

Avg. Dly T/O (mn. Shares)

90.41

136.98

51.51

Avg. Dly T/O (US$ mn)

82.49

133.74

62.12

KSE 100 Index

1981.07

2019.04

1.92

KSE All Shares Index

1234.72

1259.71

2.02

Source: KSE, MSCI, KASB