THE KASB REVIEW

STOCK MARKET AT A GLANCE

 

 

By SHABBIR H. KAZMI
Updated Sep 21, 2002

 

MARKET REVIEW: A SLIGHT RECOVERY

The factors effecting the market this week were, 1) the first phase of elections in Kashmir which caused investors to stay out of the market during the first half 

 

of the week, 2) the delay in the OCAC decision to revise oil prices in line with international price increases, 3) contradictory rumors about PSO's privatization, 4) rumors of PTCL's BoD meeting to be held next week, and 5) Hubco went SPOT this week and consequently, the activity in the stock was very low.

THIS WEEK'S PERFORMANCE

Bulls asserted themselves this week, resulting a 1.35% increase in the KSE100 index to 1981 points from 1954 points at the end of last week. This week saw a tussle between the bulls and bears with profit selling at higher levels and covering at lower levels.

The stock of interest this week was PTCL, which began performing in the latter half of the week on rumors that its BoD meeting would be held next week. With the investors expecting at least PkR2.50 per share dividend, the stock finally attracted substantial interest after under performing the market during the entire recent run up.

The volumes during the week remained low, this week with the average daily volume declining to 90.41mn shares as compared to 97.54mn shares during the previous week. PTCL and PSO were the most active stocks due to rumors of the BoD meeting of the former and contradictory privatization news of the latter.

OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING WEEK

The awakening of the sleeping giant, i.e. PTCL, surprised us all. Although the rumors of PTCL's BoD meeting are not yet confirmed, we believe that PTCL should remain a fairly active stock next week. Any price run up in PTCL can help the market in reaching 2000 and sustaining above this level. Since the elections are very close, we do not expect any significant rise in the KSE-100 from 2025, with most investors keeping at the sidelines till the results of the elections arrive.

THE DAILY DRAMA

Following the previous week's bearish trend, the Index declined on Monday by 15.6 points to close at 1,939 level. Although there was a small rally in the beginning of the trading session, lack of institutional support resulted in the 0.78% decline in the index. Traded volumes also followed the trend shown during the latter half of the previous week and decreased to 75.31mn shares.

With the institutional investors buying at lower levels, Tuesday saw an upturn in the index which rose by 23 points to close the second day trading at 1,962 level. In our opinion, the investors saw that the lower levels provided valuable opportunity to invest, taking advantage of possible capital gains and higher dividend yields. The buying was largely in energy stocks with most of them showing gains. The trading volumes did not follow the index's trend and increased marginally to 77.32mn shares.

Although the KSE-100 started on a positive note on Wednesday, profit selling in key stocks resulted in the KSE-100 reflecting a marginal increase to 1,962 points. Selling in the previous day's key gainers, i.e. PTCL and PSO, caused the KSE-100 to decline from the day's high of 1970 level. Volume traded increased significantly by 16% to 89.78mn shares with PSO and PTCL leading the list of most actives.

Considerable institutional support and interest in PTCL near the end of the trading day resulted in the KSE100 Index rising sharply by 26.46 points to close at 1,989 level. Conflicting rumors of PSO's privatization dominated trading for most of the day, but later news of PTCL's BoD meeting led the scrip to rise by 60 paisa. Due to higher interest in PTCL and PSO, trading volumes increased to 102.10mn shares.

The KSE-100 index declined by 8.16 points on Friday to close the week to 1,981 points, mainly due to decline in PTCL and PSO. PTCL and PSO led the list of most actives for third day in a row.

MARKET ROUNDUP

..

LAST WEEK

THIS WEEK

% CHANGE

Mkt. Cap (US $ bn)

7.65

7.75

1.31

Total Turnover (mn shares)

487.70

452.05

-7.31

Value Traded (US$ mn.)

461.81

412.47

-10.68

No. of Trading Sessions

5

5

.

Avg. Dly T/O (mn. Shares)

97.54

90.41

-7.31

Avg. Dly T/O (US$ mn)

92.36

82.49

-10.68