Any possible attack in Pakistan was more of a reason
for lack of investor interest than any attack in the US or elsewhere in
the world. The only significant thing that happened on Sept 11, 2002 was
a gun battle between the police and Al-Qaeda suspects in Karachi.
Another important event this week was the 57th UN
General Assembly in which President Bush addressed the issue of a
possible preemptive strike on Iraq. President Musharraf in his speech
addressed the issue of the prolonged stand-off between Pakistan and
India and the importance of peace in the region. Since neither of these
speeches were as stern as expected they had minimal impact on the
market.
THIS WEEK'S PERFORMANCE
Speculation over possible terrorist attacks causing
investors to stay away along with lack of any favourable company or
economic news, resulted in the bears getting a stronghold in the stock
market. The KSE-100 declined by 1.80% to 1954.66 points from over 2000
points at the close of last week.
We had repeatedly asserted over the previous few
weeks that the market was highly over bought and that a correction was
overdue. The week started out with a much-needed correction especially
in PSO. However, as the week continued the bears got an opportunity to
assert themselves which finally resulted in the KSE-100 shaving off most
of the gains during the previous few weeks.
As average daily volumes declined to 97.54mn shares
as compared to 170.09mn shares last week, badla volumes rose as weak
holders were struck in their long positions.
OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING WEEK
In our opinion, the market looks fairly
directionless, as we can see no trigger, which could cause an upward or
downward trend in the market. However, as a whole the market is expected
to be largely stable.
THE DAILY DRAMA
On Monday the bears finally gained control over the
stock market resulting in the KSE-100 declining by 27.69 points to close
the day at 1,981.17 points. The decline was a direct result of profit
selling in Hubco, PTCL, PSO and MCB, all four shares declined in value
causing the 1.38% decline in the index. Many punters also believed that
the decrease was due to expectations of some terrorist attacks on
Wednesday September 11. Volumes also declined to 113.80mn shares with
Hubco, PTCL and PSO ruling the roost. Due to the tension associated with
9/11, and most people expecting some terrorists attacks volumes thinned
marginally to 113.05mn shares and the KSE-100 shaved of further 19.28
points to close at 1,961.89 level. Bears again emerged victorious over
the bulls with profit selling in the pivotal stocks continued. In
addition to possible terrorist attacks it was also widely believed that
the market is finally correcting itself after a prolonged bullish phase.
As expected, the KSE-100 index somewhat settled on
Wednesday, as despite strong bearish pressure short-covering in key
stocks at lower levels resulted in the KSE-100 rising marginally to
close 1,962.06 points. Volumes declined considerably to 78.46mn shares,
largely due to lack of institutional support and the investors by and
large keeping away from the market.
Although Thursday saw a recovery in the KSE-100
during the first half of the trading day, profit selling in key stocks
later in the day resulted in the KSE-100 declining by 7.28 points to
close at 1,954.78 points. The see-saw trend in the market resulted in
both the bulls and bears being active and as a consequence the volume
increased to 95.73mn shares.
Friday was a largely uneventful day with the KSE-100 declining
marginally to close the week at 1,954.66 points. Volumes remained stable
with Hubco and PSO being the most active stocks.
MARKET ROUNDUP |
| .. |
LAST WEEK |
THIS WEEK |
% CHANGE |
|
Mkt. Cap (US $ bn) |
7.79 |
7.65 |
-1.80 |
|
Total Turnover (mn shares) |
850.44 |
487.70 |
-42.65 |
|
Value Traded (US$ mn.) |
651.24 |
461.81 |
-29.09 |
|
No. of Trading Sessions |
5 |
5 |
|
|
Avg. Dly T/O (mn. Shares) |
170.09 |
97.54 |
-42.65 |
|
Avg. Dly T/O (US$ mn) |
130.25 |
92.36 |
-29.09 |
|
KSE 100 Index |
2008.86 |
1954.66 |
-2.70 |
|
KSE All Shares Index |
1251.62 |
1219.85 |
-2.54 |
|
