Mighty Indus Presents a Deserted Look
By AMANULLAH BASHAR
Apr 09 - 15, 2001
Pakistan has made an informal appeal to the
international community for immediate relief to fight out against the
fall out of the persistent drought faced by the economy as well as the
social life in the country.
Drastic cut in economic targets due to continuous
dry spell is feared to lead to such a situation where Pakistan may not
be able to bear the huge burden of debt service next year. Hence the
need of the hour is to convince the international community as well as
the donor agencies to reduce the debt burden in the light of the
recommendations of the Debt Reduction and Management Committee (DRMC).
It is the high time that Pakistan should launch an aggressive campaign
for exemptions of huge foreign debt on humanitarian grounds in view of
the natural calamity hit Pakistan in the form of persistent drought.
Actually, the severe effects of the water shortage
are not immediately visible due to better performance of the
agriculture last year providing support in the current year. However
the pinch may be felt next year as the water shortage has forced the
government to drastically reduce the agriculture targets for the
current season.
Moin Afzal, Secretary General on Finance, Dr.
Ashfaq Hasan Khan Advisor to the federal government on economic
affairs and Mohammad Younus, Secretary Finance have briefed the
diplomats of the Western Countries and G-7 countries about the adverse
effects of the water shortage on the national economy.
Those who were present in the briefing were
including senior economic representatives and diplomats from the
United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, Japan and
Italy. The government side expressed apprehension that impact of the
drought is likely to be more severe on the economy next fiscal as
compared to the current financial year. It was feared that as a result
of dry spell, the revenue collection is likely to drop noticeably next
year, hence the government would be forced to reduce shares of the
provinces out of the divisible pool.
A large slash in provinces' share would
consequently affect health, education and social sectors. The
diplomats of the developed world were asked to convey the message to
their respective governments regarding financial difficulties that
faced by Pakistan as a result of persistent drought in Pakistan.
World Bank
Though the World Bank has given indications to
provide $100 million emergency assistance to Pakistan to mitigate the
effects of drought in the country, yet the situation calls for much
more international assistance for survival of Pakistan's economy.
Senior vice president and Chief Economist of the
World Bank, Nicholas Stern, who called on Chief Executive Gen. Pervez
Musharraf last week assured him that the World Bank would offer $100
million to help remove the sufferings of the people that came in the
wake of prolonged drought situation.
The Chief Executive was informed that the amount of
emergency assistance for drought could be more than $100 million as
various details were still being worked out. Stern said that since the
government was trying to implement its reforms agenda, international
donors were sympathetically considering all possible support for
Pakistan.
The World Bank Official however called for
protecting social sector's funding. The government last week slashed
the current financial year's public sector development program (PSDP)
from Rs120 billion to Rs110 billion that came under sharp criticism by
the donors.
The International Bank for Rehabilitation and
Development (IBRD) and its commercial wing i.e. International Monetary
Fund (IMF) are generally believed to have an instrumental role for
increasing the utility charges and other essential items. The economic
reforms they suggest for recovery of the loans severally hitting the
people due to increase in charges, surcharges and additional
surcharges in the developing countries including Pakistan.
It usually happens when the governments seek
rescheduling for repayments of debts or looking for fresh loans.
Consequently, the price of oil, gas, electricity, telephone goes up
while rate of taxation is also enhanced to collect more revenues.
Unilateral decisions are imposed on the consumers or the taxpayers
without having a slight thought that whether the consumers or the
taxpayers have capacity to pay the forced levies or not.
The international lenders could have earned a
respectable image in the eyes of the people of developing countries if
the economic reforms suggested by them are designed to help out the
developing economy through their support for export promotions and
increasing industrial output or volume of trade internationally.
Despite having certain areas where Pakistan could
double its exports with the assistance of the International donors,
one may hardly find even a single instance where the International
lenders had ever supported for increasing the exports. Pakistan no
doubt has a strong agriculture base, which is currently exposed to
serious consequences due to unprecedented drought conditions. At this
moment of crisis we are in need of international support and if the
UN, the World Bank and the IMF are indeed our friend, we are in need
of their support.
Production targets
The Federal Committee on Agriculture has lowered
Kharif crops targets because of the water shortage. The crops targets
have been reduced include cotton, sugarcane and rice. Federal Minister
for Food and Agriculture Khair Mohammad Junejo disclosed this after
74th meeting of the federal committee on agriculture.
He said the meeting took stock of water situation
in the Kharif season and quoted the Indus River System Authority (Irsa)
Chairman Mian Hafeezullah as telling the meeting that Irsa was
expecting a minimum of 49 per cent shortage in the early Kharif season
from April 1 to June 10. However an overall shortage of 17 per cent
was expected in the entire Kharif season.
The government was trying to shift as much area as
possible from rice — a water intensive crop — to cotton crop. The
government had already banned rice cultivation in some areas of Sindh
and was planning to convert half of the irrigated area of Balochistan
from rice cultivation to cotton because of the water shortage.
Agriculture Development Bank of Pakistan had been
asked to encourage cotton plantation by extending loans from the crop
to the growers.
The minister said that the recent spell of rains
had a very significant impact on the water level in the rivers. The
inflow at Tarbela on March 9 was 19,700 cusecs and it had increased to
34,500 cusecs on March 31 after the rains. Whatever water was
available Tarbela would be supplied to Sindh from April 1 to April 15
to facilitate cotton plantation in southern parts of Sindh.
The supply of agriculture inputs including seed,
fertilizers and pesticides were also reviewed at the meeting, which
noted with satisfaction that these were in ample supply. Pakistan
would not be importing wheat this year as an estimated production of
17.5 million tonnes along with the carry over stocks of three million
tonnes will be enough to meet domestic requirements. The meeting
however revised the wheat production target from 20 million tonnes to
17.5 million tonnes. Punjab was expecting a total production of 14.23
million tonnes, Sindh 2 million tonnes and NWFP and Balochistan 0.73
million and 0.5 million tonnes respectively.
It was evaluated that the extent of damages caused
by 40 per cent shortage of irrigation water during the Rabi crop. An
amount of Rs95 billion had been lost because of the low production of
all the main crops.
The FCA set the target of cotton crop at 8.66
million bales against the last year's production of 10.6 million
bales. Punjab had been given a target of producing seven million
bales, half a million less than the last year's production. A target
of 1.56 million bales had been set for Sindh against the production of
2.2 million bales in 1999-2000 season while Balochistan would
contribute 0.1 million bales.
Current situation
Though the recent rains in the upper parts of the
country provided a sigh of relief, yet it proved to be just an eye
wash as the slight rains did not help improving the flow of rivers.
Water level in the Indus River is receding fast due to water shortfall
at Tarbela. Water discharge into the Sukkur Barrage was said to have
come down from 18,600 cusecs to 16,400 cusecs. Irrigation authorities
closed down three canals of BS feeder, Desert Pat Feeder and Ghotki
Feeder besides Kirthar and Sukkur canals last week. Rice Canal has
already been closed. The canals have been shut for a month to carry
out water rotation program in the barrage area. It is estimated that
65 per cent reduction in water supply would affect 1.8 million acres
of Guddu and 3.2 million acres of the Sukkur Barrage in the Kharif
season. The water crisis is likely to delay the harvesting of Kharif
crops by about one and a half-month. From the Chasma Barrage 21,000
cusecs of water was discharged into the river in March, which takes
around a week to reach Guddu, but due to lower level of water it is
taking much time in reaching to the destination. Distributaries of the
mighty Indus are likely to be closed down to carry out a water
rotation program, which is being prepared to face the crisis.
Provincial harmony
Since the provinces are not getting the required
amount of water they are raising an accusing finger against each other
allegedly for getting more share out of the pool. This tense situation
may prove harmful for provincial harmony, which is one of the top
priorities of the government. It is learnt that Sindh Agriculture
Forum has called upon federal and provincial governments to announce a
clear cut policy to ensure fair distribution of water and relief to
farmers who have been affected by the persisting water crisis in the
province of Sindh.
At the general body meeting of the organization,
the government was urged to take administrative measures to ensure
fair distribution of water among all the provinces of this country.
Leaders of the forum are of the view that although
the 1991 water accord had remained controversial, it was the only
constitutional covenant, which should be implemented in letter and
spirit. They alleged that a former federal minister for water and
power, Ghulam Mustafa Khar had violated the Irsa Act by introducing
historical uses of water. Irsa however had rejected the decision of
the minister. They also said that Punjab officials could not justify
their demand that water be distributed according to historical uses.
The SAF representatives said Sindh protesting
against illegal and unconstitutional distribution of water in
accordance with the so called historical uses under which the province
was getting 18 per cent less water than its due share as per the 1991
accord. They regretted that in difficult times, Punjab was not
prepared to share its underground water resources with other provinces
although it was deriving full benefit from the natural resources
including oil and gas of other provinces. They expressed concern over
the recent decision of the federal government to declare the Ghotki
feeder and Phuleli and Pinyari canal as non-perennial. Thousands of
poor families and small farmers were depending on the canals and any
sudden change in the status would destroy their livelihood. The
federal government should allow the province to manage its water
resources according to its own needs in different regions.
They assessed that about 20 million people had been
affected socially and economically due to the shortage of water.
They urged the government to realize the gravity of
crisis and take effective measures to address the problem and start
working on medium and long term development water resources. They
urged the government to immediately set up a water crisis management
centre in Hyderabad with sub-office at divisional headquarters for
managing the available water supply.
The forum leaders proposed that the provincial
government should constitute a water crisis management group,
comprising officials, representatives of farmers' organizations,
independent development experts and jurists to negotiation with the
federal government on the issue of water shortage as the provincial
irrigation secretary alone could not deal with the problem.
They urged the federal government to appoint a
Supreme Court judge to oversee the water distribution among the
provinces according to the 1991 accord until the council of common
interest started functioning again. International organization
including the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, the United Nations
and the Red Cross be requested to visit the province, assess drought
conditions in Thar, Kachho, Kohistan and other affected regions to
provide relief to haris, land-less people and farmers. Those spoke
were including Mir Amanullah Talpur, Nazir Memon, Prof. Aijaz Qureshi,
Mohammad Yousuf Laghari advocate, Rana Hamir, Mian Abdul Khaliq
Valhari, Altaf Rind, Syed Noor Shah, Syed Inayat Ali Shah and Ali
Murad Rajar.
Calamity
The government of Sindh has declared 70 dehs of
district Dadu and Thatta as calamity stricken areas
The move has been taken to offset the impact of
famine and drought in these dehs caused due to lack of rains during
last monsoon.
Notification issued by Sindh Relief Commissioner in
this regard says that the Sindh government has declared the following
dehs as calamity affected under section 3 of Sindh National Calamities
Act 198.
The political forces in Sindh are getting united to
build up pressure on the government for early solution of the water
crisis and to register their grievances. Recalling the era of one
unit, they are arguing that Punjab had built the Tarbela Dam, the Link
Canal and the Mangla Dam without giving due consideration to the
aspirations of the people of Sindh. The Chasma Jehlum Link Canal was
built on Indus on condition that whenever there would be flood in
Sindh, the gate of the canal would be opened but since its completion
water has continued to flow into the canal. They also quoted from what
they called official figures showing bumper crops in Punjab have been
grown with all the needed water at the cost of Sindh which has been
facing an acute water crisis.
NWFP
The NWFP is also assessing the loss its agriculture
sector has suffered in the Rabi season owing to the water shortage.
The department had already prepared a preliminary
report in this respect but it has been told to undertake the study
afresh to evaluate the loss suffered not only by the farmers but also
by the sub-sectors attached to the farming sector.
The province fears to have 50 per cent below the
normal wheat crop in its rain fed area including Dera Ismail Khan,
Karak, Lakki Marwat and Dir and from 10 to 15 per cent less in the
irrigated areas.
The NWFP's bill of subsidy on wheat is expected to
shoot up from the initially set Rs3 billion benchmark as the province
would have to make wheat procurement more than it originally planned.
Scheme
The federal government has however finalized a
contingency plan aimed at minimizing the impact of a 34 to 40 per cent
water shortage on the Kharif crop and overall agricultural output.
The plan involves steps by the provincial
governments for best possible utilization of available water
resources, minimizing of water wastage, staggering of the kharif
crop's sowing till the mid of April, replacement of the rice crop with
cotton in Sindh, soft-term loans and subsidies by the Agricultural
Development Bank of Pakistan, incentive package by the Water and Power
Development Authority for tube-wells and introduction of modern
techniques in land-levelling and watering.
Projects
Much talked about and politically controversial
project of Kalabagh Dam now seems to be a story of the past. In order
to find long-term solutions of water shortage problem, the government
has approved construction of 7 hydel projects with an estimated cost
of Rs300-400 billion to boost agricultural growth as well as to
generate cheaper electricity.
These proposed projects including Hangol Dam,
Mitthankot Project, Thar water project, Thal water reservoir project
and to expand capacity of existing Mangla Dam. These projects will
also help raising the reservoir for meeting future water need by
avoiding drought situation.
Feasibility reports have been completed and
authorities have approved these projects for construction on priority
basis. After completion of these projects, the country would be able
to reserve about 5.6 MAF of water.
As far as feasibility was concern, a large number
of projects have gone through the feasibility process and ultimately
ended in fiasco due to lack of political will to go for long term
planning. Most of the governments want immediate results to gain
popularity instead of looking for future benefits of the coming
generations. This was the lack of will that millions of rupees were
perished in the feasibility reports of Kalabagh Dam prepared more than
a decade ago. Similarly huge amount of funds were spent on feasibility
reports and spadework of 4 smaller water projects proposed in Sindh.
Some of them are located at Sehwan, Dadu, Thar and Gaj River. Had
these projects come up on the ground, the province of Sindh would have
an entirely different situation today. The pinch of water shortage is
more painful for the people of Sindh as they are facing the worst
situation. There were the times when huge ships used to sail in the
mighty Indus now present a deserted look. The situation calls for
serious steps to see the life giving syrup flowing again in the river.
Revival of Indus is vital not only for the economic reasons but to
save the coastal line of the province as the sea is taking advantage
of dried bed of Indus and encroaching huge coastal lands in the
Province of Sindh.
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