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Kiker: International
All the foods, The world requires

World population is expected to reach 7 billion in 2013 and nearly 8 billion in 2025, an increase of more than 2 billion in the next 30 years

Dr. S.M. Alam, M.A. Khan
Nuclear Institute of Agriculture,
 Tandojam, Pakistan
Dec 25 - 31, 2000

The assumption that the world is short of food is not true. More food is produced than there are people to eat it and that will continue to be the case in the future. The problem in developing countries is that farmers are cheated so much by the buyers, even the government, that they have no reason to produce more than they eat. The world population is growing at 1.33 per cent adding an average of 78 million persons per year. World population is expected to reach 7 billion in 2013 and nearly 8 billion in 2025, an increase of more than 2 billion in the next 30 years. Much of the increase will occur in developing countries, where urban populations will nearly triple due to high birth rates and migration from the rural areas to the urban areas.

The supply of food especially grains in the developing countries will have to rise in 2020, if the 6.5 billion people who are expected to be living in Africa, Asia and Latin America by then are to be food secure. Nearly all of this increase in food supply is expected to come from the developing countries themselves. Increase of food production by as much as 70 per cent by 2020 will be a formidable task. Nonetheless, it can be done, provided governments, including additional resources from multilateral and bilaterial donors meeting the projected goal will require a sustained rise in yields of the major grains and legumes grown by hundreds of millions of small scale producers in Africa, Latin America and Asia.

The production of wheat in different countries of the world for the year 1999-2000, through FAO (Rome), are estimated as (million tons): Bangladesh (1.9), China (113.5), India (70.8), Iran (8.7), Japan (0.5), Kazakhistan (11.2), Korea DPR (0.2), Myamar (0.1), Pakistan (20.0), Saudi Arabia (1.5), Turkey (18.0), Egypt (5.3), Morocco (2.2), Nigeria (0.1), Ethiopia (1.1), Sudan (0.2), South Africa (1.6), Zimbabwe (0.3), Mexico (3.2), Argentina (14.2), Brazil (2.4), Colombia (0.1), Canada (26.9), United States (62.7), Bulgaria (3.1), EC (Fifteen member countries) (97.6), Hungary (2.6), Poland (9.1), Romania (4.7), Russian Fed (34.0), Ukraine (15.0), Australia (24.1) and World (589.2) of which developing countries (275.8) and developed countries (313.4).

Similarly, the production of rice (paddy) as estimated in the different countries of the world are as: Bangladesh (30.7), China (199.5), India (131.41), Indonesia (50.4), Iran (2.3), Japan (11.5), Kazakhistan (0.2), Korea DPR (2.3), Korea (7.2), Myamar (17.5), Pakistan (7.2), Philippines (11.9), Thailand (23.3), Turkey (0.3), Vietnam (32.0), Egypt (5.8), Nigeria (3.4), Madgascar (2.6), Mexico (0.5), Argentina (1.7), Brazil (11.6), Colombia (1.8), United States (9.5), EC (Fifteen countries) (2.6), Russian Fed (0.4), Ukraine (0.1), Australia (1.4), World (597.9), Developing countries (571.7) and developed countries (26.3).

The United States cereals and soybeans production (1999): Wheat (62.7 million tons), maize (264 million tons), rice (paddy, 9.5) and soybean (9.5 million tons), soybeans (71.9 million tons). Canada cereals and oilseeds production (1999): Wheat (26850 x 103 tons), oats (3958 x 103 tons), barley (12709 x 103 tons), maize (9096 x aO3 tons), linseed (1049 x 103 tons), rape seed (8798 x 103 tons). Australia cereal production (1999): Wheat (24060 x 103 tons), oats (1530 x 103 tons), barley (4280 x 103 tons), sorghum (1660 x 103 tons), maize (320 x 103 tons), triticale (470 x 103 tons) and rice (paddy) (1350 x 103 tons).

The milk production in different countries are as (1999): India (79 million tons), United States (75 million tons), Russian Fed (31 million tons), Pakistan (24 million tons), Brazil (23 million tons), Ukraine (13 million tons), Poland (12 million tons), New Zealand (12 million tons), Australia (11 million tons) and World (570 million tons). Food security and sustainability are the major issues confronting the agriculture in Pakistan. Agriculture sector grew at an average rate of more than 4 per cent per over the last two decades. At present it contributes 24 per cent to national GDP. Unfortunately, expansion in this sector is not keeping pace with the food demand and nutritional requirements of the mounting population. Factors like land in terms of acreage and water availability which were instrumental in agricultural growth in the last fifty years have reached limits. Growth in agriculture has, therefore to rely heavily on diversification of crops and their enhanced productivity. Agriculture, even today employs 50% of the total labour force and provides means of the livelihood for 70% of the rural population. Therefore, national development shall emanate from agricultural development.

Pakistan GDP recorded a growth of over 4.9 per cent in fiscal year July-June 1999-00 meeting the target set by the government for the year. In fiscal 1998-99, GDP growth was only about 3.2 per cent. Earlier third quarterly report of the State Bank released on May 8 had also predicted GDP growth of 4.4 per cent for fiscal 1999-00. But the reason why the actual growth turned out to be around five per cent in that wheat production went up to 21.095 million tons in final estimates up from provisional estimates of 9.272 million tons.

Wheat production of 21 million tons in 1999-00 showed 18.3 per cent increase over the 98-99 production of 17.85 million tons. Similarly, cotton crop of 11.24 million bales in 1999-00 was about 28 per cent higher than 8.79 million bales in 98-99. Rice production also rose 10.3 per cent to 5.16 million tons in 99-00 from 4.7 million tons in the preceding year. But production of sugarcane — the fourth major crop—fell 16 per cent to 46.3 million tons in 99-00 from 55.19 million tons in 98-00. Officials say growth in industrial sector was recorded at 2.39 per cent in 99-00 against 4.9 per cent in the previous year. Officials say growth rate in industrial sector comes to 6.9 per cent in 1999-00, if sugar is excluded from the basket of 96 items whose production figures are used for calculating growth in large scale manufacturing. Sugar production went down to 2.43 million tons in 99-00 down 31.4 per cent compared to the 1998-99 production of 3.5 million tons in 98-99. The target for industrial growth was set at 5.5 per cent for 99-00.

Some facts about different countries:-

 

Country

Population
 (crore) (1998)

National  product (billion dollar)

Rating in national product

% Exp. on education of national  product
(1996)

USA

27.0

7921

1

5.4%

Japan

12.6

4090

2

3.6 %

Germany

8.2

2123

3

4.8 %

France

5.9

14662

4

6.1 %

China

124.0

929

7

2.3 %

India

98.0

422

11

3.4 %

Malaysia

2.2

80

39

5.2 %

Egypt

6.1

79

40

4.8 %

Pakistan

13.2

63

44

2.5 %

 

Strength of scientists and engineers in research and development per million (1985-95)

% Import of technology of total industrial import (1997)

 Investment in research and development of  total national product (m. dollar) (1994)

 % of total national product

 

 

.

USA

3,732

44 %

171000

2.5

Japan

6,309

38 %

144546

2.9

Germany

2,843

26 %

-

-

France

2,584

31 %

-

-

China

350

21 %

-

-

India

149

11 %

2174

0.8

Malaysia

87

67%

-

-

Egypt

458

7 %

-

-

Pakistan

54

4%

81.4

0.15