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Foreign sell-off led to bearish trend but flat recovery of 637 points witnessed on last day
Summary

The last week of September saw the KSE-100 Index decline by 40.29 to close at 32,070.81. It was notable as foreigners who were buyer worth $7.75m last week, turned seller of $8.77m this week.

Besides, there were some concern on economic issues. Finance Committee of the National Assembly invited Governor State Bank of Pakistan on September 30 to explain to the committee about the linkages of monetary policy with fiscal policy and the rationale of keeping policy rate far too high from the core inflation of 5 percent and overvalued exchange rate.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday forecast GDP growth target at 2.8 percent for FY20 given the need to continue efforts to stabilize and protect the economy against external risks, rising global prices, current account deficit, rising debt servicing and continued losses of public sector enterprise.

Pakistan is in midst of economic crises says The Trade and Development Report 2019 released by the United Nations on Thursday. The growth rate has halved, the balance of payment is in poor shape, the rupee has depreciated significantly and external debt is large and rising.

During the week the Index shed 40.29 points to close at 32,070.81. The average volume declined to 108 million while market capitalization increased by Rs.12 billion to close at Rs.6.409 trillion.

On Monday, the KSE-100 Index plunged 359.89 points to close at 31,751.21. The offloading was across the board as mixed signal were received on the stock of economy. Individuals were the major seller worth $2.76m.

The KSE-100 Index had modest gain of 78.03 points to close at 31,829.24 on Tuesday. There were rumors about government making arrangement to clear the circular debt which supported the heavy weight oil scrips.

Stocks lose 264 points on Wednesday as foreign selling continued for third day. The investors were also concerned over future rollover week. The market closed 31,565.21.

The foreign selling intensified on Thursday to $2.76m. The market lost 131.32 points to close at 31,433.89. The volume jumped from 105m day earlier to 124m on Thursday,

The conclusion of roll-over week on Friday turned stock bullish. There was sense of positive conclusion of Prime Minister visit to US and the stock jumped 636.92 to close at 32,070.81. Investors interest surrounded on cement, E&P and banking stocks. The volume too peaked to 135m.

 

Participants/Activity

On average shares of 350 companies were traded. Of these 161 were gainers and 167 were losers and 22 remained unchanged.

Foreigners were net seller of $8.77m during the week; companies were seller by $3.55m, Banks were buyer $6.67m; Mutual fund net buyer $0.13m and individuals seller $1.18m.

Volume leaders during the week were: K-Electric 99m; Maple Leaf 53m; World Telecom 32m; Bank of Punjab 18m; PSO 15m; Pak Elektron 12m; Fauji Cement XD 7m; Hascol Perol 5m; Amereli Steel 4m and D. G. Khan Cement XD.

Triggers
  • SBP reserves fall by $135m to $8.465 billion during the week ended Sept 20. The country’s total reserves were $15.772 billion.
  • FBR is likely to miss revenue target by Rs.100 billion from the first quarter of FY20 set at Rs.1071 billion by the IMF.
  • Profit repatriation dropped to $214.7 2MFY19 down 10%.
  • Honda has reduced working days to 11 and for Pak Suzuki remained unchanged.
  • Pakistan has borrowed $1.62 billion with $1.489 billion loans and $132 million grants.
Conclusion

Dr. Reza Baqir, Governor of SBP, is of the view that the program of IMF with momentum on our side as opposed to against us.

A potential criticism of the current account improvement is the claim that the improvement has come about by slowing down the economy and is largely driven by import compression without growth in exports. This is not entirely correct. While it is true that import substitution has played a part, it is also the case that export volume has actually responded well to the exchange rate depreciation and has been growing.

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