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Lowering of Current Account deficit in February gave 225 points boost to KSE-100 index
Summary

According to the latest SBP data country C/A balance posted a deficit of $8.844 in july-February ,2019 compared to dollar 11,421 billion in the same period of the last fiscal year depicting a decline of 22.56 percent or dollar 2.577 billion Month-on-month basis the C/A deficit plunged by 59 percent to dollar 356 million compared to dollar 873 million in January ,2019

PM statement on Thursday :’Nation may hear a very good news soon’ Clarifying PM said Exxon Mobil has entered the final stage of offshore drilling and discovery of natural resources (gas and oil reserves ) is expected in next three weeks.

The KSE-100 index gained 224.92 points during the week to close at 38,531.87 .The average volume declined to 84m shares and market capitalization lost 27 billion to close at Rs.7.846 trillion.

On Monday the market made a comeback with 545 points after a loss of 501.66 points on last Friday. The data of current account deficit for first eight months declined by 22 percent depict that market is moving in right direction giving confidence to the investors. Further more the statement of Mr. Asad Umer that IMF-govt. gap over reforms narrowed give strength for an early IMF program in second half of April .The market closed at 38,851.95

On Tuesday the recovery seemed short lived as market shed 239.58 points to close at38,612.37 . The investors seemed uncertain about rupee parity, higher inflation and the political development in the country. . The volume declined to 71m.

It was dull trading on Wednesday .The market lost 64.61 points to close at 38,547.76 The av.volume improved to 83m.

Stock extended their losses on Thursday and shed 163.04 points to close at38,384.72.Sectors contributing to the down fall included fertilizers lower by 47 points, power 36 points ,oil and gas marketing 22 points ,exploration and production 13points and cement 12 points.

Finally the market regained 225 points on Friday on the positive news of arrival of Malaysian PM Dr, Mahatir and possibility of signing $900 MoUs. The maket closed at 38,531.87.

Participants /Activity

On average shares of 333 companies were traded . Of these 138 were gainers and 173 were loser and 22 remained unchanged.

Foreigners were net buyer $3.16m during the week ;companies were seller 2.57m, Banks were buyer $2,50 m ; Mutual fund net $1.48m. and individuals net buyers $2.03m

Volume leaders during the week were:Bank of Punjab 21m;Pak Electron 26m; K-Electric Ltd 21m ; Pak Gen Ltd 12m; PTCL 11 m;World Telecom 9m; Hub Power Co and TRG Pak Ltd 7m each; OGDC 5 m; PIBTL and Dewan Cement 4m each ; Sui Southern Gas and PPL 3m each.

Triggers.
  • Reserves held by the SBP jumped $715million to $8.838 billion during the week ended on March 15 ,on account of $1 bn received from UAE
  • Pakistan gets $1bn Chinese market access for rice,sugar ,yarnaccording to Commerce Division
  • Addressing the Pakistan Economic Forum held by Bloomberg LP,Mr Bajwa,SBP Governor said a general statement already exists between Pakistan and the IMF about the over all policy direction under the forthcoming bailout package ” the difference are only in the timings and pace of stabilization policies”
Conclusion

The start of an IMF program will add credibility to the economy of Pakistan .It shall remove uncertainty from the market It will remove imbalances from the economy to give it direction and stability.

With Government’s continuous efforts during the last eight months in structuring ,corporate governance ,and law making the difficult times with IMF program should be lessened. It will be an ongoing process with IMF with a direction, clarity and targets.

Raees Uddin Khan
Research & Development
Institute of Securities Management Research & Training (Pvt) Ltd
Karachi
Dated March22,2019

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