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Geo-Political concern downplayed Saudi investment flow & corporate results: KSE-100 index lose 471 points
Summary

The brief visit of Saudi Crown Prince to Pakistan on Sunday is considered as highly successful by all with far reaching investment decisions worth more than $20 billion and signing of 7 MoUs. But the suicide bombing in occupied Kashmir Pulwama area of India on February 14 had its aftermath on the sentiments of investors this week, as they feared in escalation of hostilities between the two countries. India had scaled up tariffs on imports from Pakistan and trying to isolate Pakistan at different forums like review of Pakistan’s performance by Financial Action Task Force. Financial results of UBL, MCB and HBL encouraged the buying/selling volume during the week in stock exchange.

KSE-100 Index went down 1.2% WoW to close on Friday at 40,016.13. The volume decreased to average 105 million share. The market capitalization also decreased to Rs7.954 trillion.

Stocks continued to slide down on Monday as Index loses 267.20 points to close at 40,219.47. Surprising the Saudi Crown Prince investment of more than $20 billion failed to move the Index upward as the investors feared the tension created by Pulwama between India and Pakistan. The volume increased to 99 million.

On Tuesday the Index came below 40,000 level to 39,957.07 , a drop of 262.40. India withdrew the MFN status from Pakistan along with scaling up the tariff rates and halting cement import from Pakistan.

The KSE-100 Index increased by 322.31 points on Wednesday to close at 40,279.38. The financial result of banks like UBL, HBL and MCB created a bullish rally. The volume too increased to 132 million.

The momentum of previous day carried forward the stock on Thursday on intraday high of 137 points. Later the stock of banks bought yesterday were sold back in the market. The Index lost 208.67 points to close at 40,070.71.

On Friday stocks made a high and low of +11 and 271 and finally closed at 40,016.13 shedding 54.58 points. The volume declined to 99m.

 

Participants/Activity

On average shares of 326 companies were traded. Of these 106 were gainers and 196 were losers and 24 remained unchanged. Foreigners were net buyer $3.4m during the week; companies were seller $1.04m, Banks were buyer $0.97m; Mutual fund net buyer $0.08m and individuals net seller $4.66m.

Volume leaders during the week were K-Electric Ltd 29m; Pak Int’l Bulk 22m; Lottee Chemical 20m; Bank of Punjab 15m; United Bank 14m; Siddiquesons Tin 17m; Pak Elektron 7m; Unity Food Ltd 10m; Fauji Foods Ltd 5m; Meezan Bank; OGDC; & PTCL 4m each.

Triggers
  • The SBP total liquid foreign exchange reserves decreased by around two percent to $8.043 billion as of Feb 15 down by $162.9 million.
  • HBL’s consolidated PAT rises to Rs.12.4 billion; UBL declares Rs.25 billion PBT MCB announces Rs.21.36 PAT.
  • India halts cement purchases from Pakistan.
  • Current account deficit falls by 47 percent. It narrowed to $809 million falling from the $1.544 billion recorded during December last year.
Conclusion

The politics seem to dominate the economics at the stock exchange. The external politics of Pulwama and internal politics of arrests and accountability have their impact on investment climate. Finance Minister Asad Umar is of the opinion that India to suffer itself after anti-Pakistan trade moves like withdrawing Most Favoured Nations (MFN) status to Pakistan and impose 200 percent duty on its products

Raees Uddin Khan,
Research & Development Institute of Securities Management Research& Training (Pvt) Ltd, Karachi.
Dated: February 22, 2019

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